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06
November 17, 2006
Shut Out
 For those Democrats who are still thinking of this year's election as "historic" here's a bit more data for you.
For the first time in the post-WWII period, and possibly ever, a political party has been completely shut-out and failed to pick up even a single elected position in either the House or Senate. Even the Gubernatorial well was dry.
The final door closed following Republican challenger Max Burns' decision Thursday not to challenge the vote totals form his unsuccessful run against the incumbent Democratic Representative, John Barrow of Georgia. |
Posted by: at 2:15 am | Category: 06 | Link & Discuss (5)
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November 10, 2006
Message from Brian Wahby
to his City Dem volunteers:
Before everybody gets involved with Thanksgiving plans I hope you'll take a
minute to congratulate yourself for what you and other Democrats did this
week. By electing Claire McCaskill to the US Senate we literally changed the
world--the whole world, not just Missouri's political world.
Certainly some worthy Democrats seeking elective office lost on Tuesday but
for the most part it was an outstanding day to be a Democrat. Democrats
will control the US House of Representatives; Democrats will control the US
Senate; Susan Montee is the new auditor for the state of Missouri; we gained
a handful of seats in the General Assembly; Democrats won everything in St.
Louis City, St. Louis and Jefferson Counties.
This big victory is certainly attributable, in part, to the incompetence and
corruption of the Bush administration. But don't think for a minute that
that's the whole story. Missouri's Democrats--you--worked like dogs to make
this happen. We literally changed the world.
Congratulations and thanks for all of your contributions and efforts.
Brian Wahby
Chairman
City Democratic Central Committee |
Posted by: at 2:47 pm | Category: 06 | Link & Discuss (103)
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November 9, 2006
Turnout by Ward
Again, from unofficial results:
Ward 1 - 37.63
Ward 2 - 42.72
Ward 3 - 30.25
Ward 4 - 35.53
Ward 5 - 35.34
Ward 6 - 50.93
Ward 7 - 48.68
Ward 8 - 52.35
Ward 9 - 40.99
Ward 10 - 52.84
Ward 11 - 47.70
Ward 12 - 59.18
Ward 13 - 55.25
Ward 14 - 53.03
Ward 15 - 49.76
Ward 16 - 64.79
Ward 17 - 44.74
Ward 18 - 38.75
Ward 19 - 34.62
Ward 20 - 33.34
Ward 21 - 40.26
Ward 22 - 32.72
Ward 23 - 62.59
Ward 24 - 51.88
Ward 25 - 42.96
Ward 26 - 40.79
Ward 27 - 38.37
Ward 28 - 55.86 |
Posted by: at 2:51 pm | Category: 06 | Link & Discuss (1)
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Caucus Vote
Maida Coleman has retained her position as minority leader of the Senate.
UPDATE: No dissenters. The vote was by acclamation after lengthy and fruitful discussion. |
Posted by: at 12:48 pm | Category: 06 | Link & Discuss (2)
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Ward breakdown
For Talent-McCaskill and for Amendment 2 are here. BUT these are unofficial results and they've been through the imperfect "Drebes human transcriber method." So while I have a high degree of confidence in them, I can't promise they're totally error-free. Plus I didn't include the two alternative candidates. In other words, before you write your senior thesis based on these numbers, go down to the BOE and get the real stuff.
Interesting to note:
Talent's African American outreach did zippo. McCaskill won northside wards with 91-96% of the vote.
Talent only managed 73 votes in the 22nd ward to McCaskill's 2,369. So while there were 800 more votes cast in the 14th ward, for example, the 22nd actually delivered more votes to McCaskill.
Ward 16 was the most competitive in the city - McCaskill won 56% there, and Stem Cell only won 54%.
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Posted by: at 9:28 am | Category: 06 | Link & Discuss (3)
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November 8, 2006
McCaskill calls for partnership, moderation
 "Senator, Senator!" Words that must sound sweet to Senator-elect Clair McCaskill.
At her first post-elections new conference, Senator-elect McCaskill expressed concern that Democrats may over-reach in their enthusiasm following Tuesday's sweeping results.
She expressed concern that Democrats may merely use their substantial election results as a jumping-off point for 2008 and 2010, and instead should work for the issues that are important to the people who elected them.
"It's about being a leader," she said. "It's about striking a balance."
She said they should focus on issues like health care, ethics and immigration.
When it came to Iraq, McCaskill said they needed to work as an independent voice and provide accountability in Iraq.
McCaskill told Senator Kit Bond in a phone call this morning that she hoped they could work together to represent the people of Missouri on both sides of the isle.
That echoed a line in her victory speech early Wednesday morning when she told the gathered faithful that she will go to work not just for those who voted for her, but for the thousands who didn't.
McCaskill told reporters that voters responded to her because they saw her as a person and that she also understood their frustrations. She also cited her willingness to stand up to anyone, including her own party. To that, she added that her colleagues might not always like her stance on issues, but they will be her own.
Despite winning substantial seats, McCaskill noted it didn't necessarily create a Democratic mandate and that she would try to help keep the "swagger" out of Democrats actions in the coming weeks and days.
Despite some great leads in the House, many races, especially in the Senate, were much closer. She cited her own race as an example.
"We didn't have a great victory,' she said. "We had a narrow margin." |
Posted by: at 9:49 pm | Category: 06 | Link & Discuss (1)
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November 7, 2006
Dake loses
| The 132nd - about 30% Democratic Performing District, but Dems hoped to hold on. Dake loses by a little less than 300 votes. |
Posted by: at 8:42 pm | Category: 06 | Link & Discuss (0)
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November 6, 2006
Judge ratings
Missouri Bar's ratings.
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Posted by: at 3:14 pm | Category: 06 | Link & Discuss (1)
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Polling report
As I noted below, some polls are showing marked decrease between Democrats and Republicans on the generic ballot. Yet as in all things statistical, there is a counter-case.
In the Pew poll, the Democrats' margin dropped from 11% (Oct 23rd) to 4% (Nov 5). In the Gallup poll, it fell from 13% (Oct 23rd) to 7% (Nov 5th).
However, two polls still show substantial obstacles for the Republican GOTV effort.
A Fox News poll released today shows a 13% margin (49% to 36%) for Democrats, an increase of 2 points from October 26th (49% to 38%).
A CNN poll has Democrats up by 20% (58% to 38%). Thats an increase of 9 points from a poll on October 30th (53% to 42%).
Is it a wash? We'll only know on Tuesday for sure. The national attitude doesn't cinch anything for McCaskill's campaign, but it sure might give them a bit of head-room.
For Talent's campaign, the closing gap can only help. Republican enthusiasm had been waning, but if things are beginning to swing their way a bit, it might give them the edge in the GOTV effort. Just because you boost your voter contacts, doesn't mean they will be energized enough to vote. The promise of a squeaker might motivate some voters who were thinking of sitting it out.
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Posted by: at 1:37 pm | Category: 06 | Link & Discuss (0)
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Anti-Rupp ad
| Nice belch sound. |
Posted by: at 1:26 pm | Category: 06 | Link & Discuss (0)
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Crunch time
 All I got for a response was a slightly inward smile and a quick glance aside when I asked a McCaskill staffer if they knew something the rest of us didn't. We were all waiting for Senator Barak Obama (D-Il) and a who's-who of Missouri politicians to take the stage for the Democratic rally in the World's Fair Pavilion in Forest Park and I thought I would try and find out what's was behind a positive impression I had been getting lately. It had changed from positive but couched to one of concealed enthusiasm. It wasn't just the staff.
Their candidate has looked confident and happy in recent appearances; a change in attitude from the way she sometime appeared in her last campaign.
McCaskill lost her race for the Governor's mansion in a 2004 race that was said to be tight going into the last week, but ended up a three-point loss for the State Auditor. That tough race began with a difficult, and devisive, primary. No one looked happy and confidence was thin.
But enough about then, what happens on Tuesday? Naturally, no one knows for sure, but it's fun to look at the numbers we do have.
A Pew poll shows mixed results for the purported Democratic wave. Looking at the generic ballot (GOP vs. Dems) Republicans have cut the Democrats' lead among likely voters from 13 points in early October (53% to 40%) to 4 points in the first days of November (47% to 43%). At the same time, the number of Republicans who think their party will not fare well on Tuesday has increased 8 points (21% to 29%).
Gallup today released a poll today also showing Republicans regaining ground on the generic ballot, from a 13 point deficit two weeks ago to 7 points now (51% to 44%). Remember, however, that 7 point advantage is the same the Republicans had in the days leading up to election day in 1994.
Gallup's poll also showed that McCaskill has increased her lead among likely voters from 3% to 4% (48/45 Oct 1., 49/45 November 5).
Similarly, Pollster.com's running average of the last 5 polls shows a 2 point advantage among for McCaskill (48% to 46%), that doesn't include the Gallup poll released Sunday. Their 10-poll average, on the other hand, still shows a 47/47 tie.
So in a period in which the Republicans are closing the gap nationally, as naturally happens in the final days, McCaskill hasn't lost any ground. It may even be that she has picked up a touch of positive momentum, but that could be written off as statistical noise. Different polls, different techniques; a point or two is too little to take to the bank.
Yet all of the polls released in the last 6 days has her ahead, if only a touch. Throw in the so-called incumbent rule (a phenomenon accepted by pollsters and politicos that between the last poll of the election and election day, the majority of the undecided voters break for the challenger) and there might be a good reason why McCaskill's campaign is smiling to themselves. |
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November 3, 2006
Cynthia Kramer stumps via DVDs
During this final weekend, her campaign will distribute DVDs explaining her position on stem cell and why she's running for state rep.
Here it is on YouTube. |
Posted by: at 6:50 pm | Category: 06 | Link & Discuss (0)
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I did a sound-bite about the 22nd
| on KWMU this morning. |
Posted by: at 8:07 pm | Category: 06 | Link & Discuss (0)
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November 2, 2006
State Race analysis
Third party expenditures was one of the indicators that Brian Werner looked at in order to determine which races were competitive.
For example on the MO Republican Party 8-day filing they list multiple direct mail pieces going to the Dake/Ruzicka, Hobbs/Elkin and Mitchell/Todd races. |
Posted by: at 7:56 am | Category: 06 | Link & Discuss (0)
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November 1, 2006
The Closer
President Bush's stop in Missouri Friday might help the Talent campaign financially if they have a quick fundraiser, but who will be the electoral benafactor? A New York Times poll (Oct 27-31, 932 RV) indicates it might be Claire McCaskill.
At the same time, Talent has tied himself to the President's policies on Iraq, healthcare and other issues, and the President himself hasn't had an approval rating over 45% in Missouri in 16 months (according to Survey USA). So it hasn't been a deciding blow yet, but it has certainly played into Talent's close race.
For over 50% of voters it won't decide their vote when they walk into the booth, but In a race that has basically been tied for over a year, every point counts. |
Posted by: at 9:36 pm | Category: 06 | Link & Discuss (0)
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Slay: McCaskill gets it; city will be prepared for election
State Auditor Claire McCaskill's impossible-to-miss blue "McCaskill for Senate" RV pulled up to the hip, if not so new, Kitchen K to press the flesh and meet with Mayor Francis Slay. After some questions outside the two worked the room encouraging lunching downtown business crowd to vote to promote McCaskill to the Senate.
"This is my favorite part," said McCaskill, adding that she much preferred talking to voters than raising money.
McCaskill was immediately asked by reporters about Republican accusations that her family has a tax shelter in Bermuda (the issue has been part of a new series of anti-McCaskill television ads, at least one of which looked re-cut to get the charge in).
McCaskill dismissed the charges as a personal attack. She said her husband owns 6% of a reinsurance company in the form of stock, and that it was included in the disclosures. She added that the stock is not paying dividends and that they would only realize income if her husband sold the stock. McCaskill suggested such companies were routine and that Anheuser-Busch and Washington University had similar companies there. She estimated the current stock value between $200,000 and $500,000.
McCaskill expressed frustration with the advertising war, she said her ads focused on policy and Senator Jim Talent's votes, not on personal issues.
“None of them call him a name…none of them question his character,” she said.
The lunch crowd looked surprised at the commotion while the waiters darted among the less-gainly reporters following the couple around trying to catch what they were saying.
Asked why he supports McCaskill in her effort to unseat the one-term Senator, Jim Talent, Slay cited their long friendship and her honesty and hard work.
"She gets it," Slay said. "She understands what working families are dealing with."
Slay said it was important to have friends of the city in Washington. The city depends on block grants for everything from infrastructure to health care and law enforcement, Many of which, he said, have been cut or are threatened with cuts.
Asked about potential problems, Slay said this election is important for the city voters should expect to be able to vote without unnecessary restrictions and problems.
“Historically I have always been concerned about disenfranchisement,” said Slay.
Slay said his staff is working with the Board of Elections, police and the prosecutors office to ensure a smooth election. He said there would be credentialed lawyers at polling places to supervise.
Despite precautions, recent history certainly is sparking diligence.
“The year 2000 was an embarrassment to the city,” said Slay, referring to a number of problems at the polls including voters being incorrectly stricken from the roles and a judges' decision to allow the polls to stay open after 7 pm to allow voters to get in to vote despite the disruptions.
“I wasn't the Mayor then,” laughingly reminded reporters. |
Posted by: at 4:44 pm | Category: 06 | Link & Discuss (1)
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Other State House races of interest
The following analysis came by email, from a knowledgable source:
1. The big one you left out is a possible worry for the Dems. Paul Quinn is running for Wes Shoemeyer's old seat and faces a spirited challenge from the Republican, Kathryne Harper. It's a decent Dem district but by no means solid. In an open seat race, this one could go either way.
2. You left out a few other several semi-longshots in GOP districts where Dems are running solid races and have at least a chance, especially if there proves to be a Democratic wave. All of these have at least a shot, most probably have a better chance than Lucas Kunce or James Owen, if I may politely disagree with your emailers.
In rough order of quality of campaign / likeliness of winning:
Danny Gregory vs. Doug Ervin in the 35th. (Danny is running a spirited race and has some good young activists working for him).
Rebecca McLanahan vs. Nancy Summers in the 2nd. (District includes a university and has decent DPI numbers, Rebecca is both a nurse and a teacher, seems like a good fit and is working.)
Mark Schaeperkoetter vs. Tom Loehner in the 112th. (Schaeperkoetter has a well-known family name in the district and is working extremely hard.)
Luke Scavuzzo vs. Rex Rector in the 124th. (I don't know much about this one but I hear good things about Scavuzzo, that he's really working it.)
Richard Oswald vs. Mike Thomson in the 4th. (Also has a university in the district, really could be Dem territory, Oswald is a farmer who looks like the Marlboro Man and is working hard on the ground.)
UPDATE: One more, from another well-placed source, the 5th (Jim Guest against Mike Walthemath).
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Posted by: at 2:23 pm | Category: 06 | Link & Discuss (0)
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What did we miss?
ACC reporter Brian Werner identified 21 House and 4 Senate races as close ones to watch. Did we miss any?
I've heard from folks that we should have included the 91st (Fares and Trout), 93rd (Scharnhorst and Frank), and the 24th Senate District (Bray and Maupin).
Any other close ones out there?
UPDATE: Emailers suggest two more - Lucas Kunce is running a spirited race against Mark Bruns in the 113th. This is traditionally the D half of Jefferson City, and money is flowing primarily from other candidates to Bruns and not vice versa. Yard signs don't vote, but Lucas would win if they did.
You might include the 136th between incumbent B.J. Marsh and Democrat James Owen. Owen is sharp and apparently working awfully hard down there and getting a lot of attention.
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Posted by: at 10:35 am | Category: 06 | Link & Discuss (1)
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October 31, 2006
House Race Analysis - part VI
105th District: Ed Groom-R v. Michael Frame*-D
Frame narrowly beat Groom in a special election last February. The victory in a low turnout special election doesn’t ensure a similar result for Frame, but the District leans Democratic and will stay that way.
135th District: Charles Denison*-R v. Nancy Hagan-D
An internal poll by the Greene County Democrats in late October showed Hagan 3 points behind Denison and gaining ground. However, Republicans have won all of the last three races in the District by over 30% percent. There will be a much smaller margin this year, but a similar result as Denison holds.
137th District: Dan Scott-R v. Charlie Norr-D
Scott and Norr battle for Republican Mark Wright’s seat in Northern Springfield. Scott is an architect and stresses his hometown roots. Norr was firefighter and is a veteran of Navy. Minimum wage could turn out to be a substantial issue in this, one of the poorest districts in the state. Norr wins on the Northside.
163rd District: Kevin Mitchell-R v. Thomas Todd-D
The 163rd District, which dips into the Bootheel in Southern Missouri, was a historically Democratic district before being taken over by Otto Bean, who died in July. The 163rd now seems poised to swing back to the Dems. In 2002, Bean won with only 4,206 votes. With no presidential election this year, it will probably only take 4,500 votes to win. Considering that 4,021 Democrats voted in the contested August primary, Todd should be able to beat out Mitchell in this contest.
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House Race Analysis - part V
15th District: Sally Faith*-R v. Thomas Green-D
Thomas Green should be a well known name for the voters of the 15th District in St. Charles County. He ran for State Rep. in 1998 and lost by 0.8% (81 votes). In 2000 he took the seat by the slim margin of 0.6% (103 votes) and held it until 2004 when he was unseated by Sally Faith in another tight race (1.6% margin). This year, the pendulum swings back and Green reclaims the seat.
21st District: Steve Hobbs*-R v. Skip Elkin-D
Hobbs, a two term legislator from Mexico, MO, faces Skip Elkin. Elkin is Boone County’s Northern District commissioner, a veteran of the Marines, and a member of the National Guard. Elkin upsets Hobbs in a squeaker.
48th District: Will Kraus*-R v. Chris Moreno-D
Will Kraus won the 2004 election by 5.8%, reversing a trend of Democratic representatives in the district. Kraus, a veteran of the Iraq War, has a large money advantage and got the endorsement of the Kansas City Star. Moreno will give him a run, but Kraus keeps the seat.
87th District: Scott Muschany*-R v. Cynthia Kramer-D
Kramer has worked hard to make this one close, while Mushany, who is close to Speaker Rod Jetton, appears to already have his sights on a higher prize. But the 87th District is definitely Republican, and will remain in Muschany’s control.
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Posted by: at 11:04 am | Category: 06 | Link & Discuss (1)
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State Senate Analysis - part II
The 30th
Incumbent Republican Norma Champion was known for 30 years as Aunt Norma on the children's hour on KY-3. Most people still call her that. Dems have delicately attempted to raise issues of age, health and competence. For a donkey to take down an incumbent elephant in this district requires a near-perfect campaign. Harpool's run a solid race, but it's probably not enough to get him over the top.
The 22nd
Ryan McKenna will unseat Republican Bill Alter. Even Republicans are saying so. And the GOP Senate Committee has pretty much cut Alter loose. McKenna has out-raised, out-endorsed and out-worked Alter. McKenna in a cakewalk.
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Posted by: at 8:10 am | Category: 06 | Link & Discuss (0)
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State House Race Analysis - part IV
30th District: Jason Brown*-R v. Jared Welch-D
Usually, having spent over a decade in the Air National Guard would distinguish a candidate. Yet, Jared Welch’s service is likely to be overshadowed by that of incumbent Jason Brown. Brown is currently on leave from the Army after being shot in the chest while on duty in Iraq. Deployed in April for a yearlong tour, Brown was serving his House term while abroad. If Welch was planning on doing any negative campaigning, that's off the table. Given the circumstances, Brown will hold this seat.
38th District: Ryan Silvey*-R v. Dennis Spears-D
The 38th was a Democratic seat before Silvey won a special election following Representative Dan Bishop’s death. Thus far, Spears has raised less than $5,000, while Silvey has raised over $45,000. While infighting amongst the Republicans could make this one closer, Silvey will remain on top.
47th District: Jeff Grisamore-R v. Tom Haley-D
This district seat opened up as Republican Robert Thane Johnson left it to run for senate. Haley ran for the seat in 2002 and lost by 7.6% (875 votes). While Haley might be helped by the name recognition, it won’t be enough as Grisamore takes the open seat.
94th District: Rick Stream-R v. Jane Bogetto*-D
This Kirkwood district was held by Republican Richard Byrd from 2000 until his death in 2005. Bogetto took over the seat in the subsequent special election last November. She now faces long time Kirkwood School Board Member Rick Stream. Repubs would love to grab this one back, but when crunch time comes, Bogetto will win the suburban battle.
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Posted by: at 6:11 am | Category: 06 | Link & Discuss (0)
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October 30, 2006
State Senate Analysis - part I
There are really only four big races in the Missouri Senate, which makes it a lot easier to follow and handicap than the House. Here are two of them. I'll post the other two tomorrow:
The 18th
State Rep. Wes Shoemyer is a rural Missouri Democrat, straight out of central casting. Call him, “Missouri's Tom Selleck.” He’s got the glam; he’s got the stache… Shoemyer’s got the NRA's highest rating and was endorsed by Missouri Right to Life three times previously (but not this time, see comment below). He’s that kind of Democrat. His opponent, Bob Behnen, is not the standard issue rural MO Republican. He’s actually an STL-born genealogist. Shoemyer is trying to use this, highlighting his own rural MO roots. He actually brings the sweet corn he grows with him when he visits senior centers! Polls show Shoemyer leading by single-digits.
The 16th
Incumbent Democrat Barnitz is another working farmer here. Susie Snyder, the Republican opponent, has muffed several questions in debates, which has received widespread attention thanks to the miracle of YouTube. Barnitz won the seat in a special election, surprising many people given the district's Republican tilt. Like Shoemyer, Barnitz fits the district well with his strong pro-life, pro-gun stances. Expect Barnitz to win narrowly.
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Posted by: at 7:33 am | Category: 06 | Link & Discuss (4)
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House race analysis - part III
33rd District: Jerry Nolte*-R v. Terry Stone-D
Jerry Nolte won by 3% in 2004, taking over a seat that leans slightly Democratic. This race will be another close one. The current climate gives Stone a boost as he ousts Nolte.
85th District: Jim Lembke*-R v. Bob Burns-D
Jim Lembke won this Lemay seat by 1.5% in 2004. GOP sources think Lembke’s hard working campaign will prevail. Dems say the same about Burns. The numbers favor the Democrats in this one, and Bob Burns, a Union beer truck driver, will return the seat to Democratic control.
90th District: Sean King-R v. Sam Komo-D
The 90th District, which is southwest of the St. Louis area, is an open seat as Democrat Rick Johnson ran for Jefferson County Prosecutor rather than re-election. Privately some Dems are underwhelmed by Komo’s campaign, but Komo has the support of Johnson and will keep the seat in the D column.
132nd District: Don Ruzicka-R v. Charles Dake*-D
Another winner of a special election, Dake took over the republican seat in 2006. Claims of Republican push polls have surfaced in this race, allegedly being run by Wilkerson and Associates, the same company named for similar calls in the 32nd District. The District has strong numbers for the Republicans and could be their best chance to take a seat from the Dems. Dake, a conservative Democrat, opposes Amendment 2 and lists the NRA as one of his endorsements. In the end, Dake withstands the charge and keeps the seat.
139th District: Shane Schoeller-R v. Jamie Schoolcraft-D
Schoeller and SchoolCraft vie for this North Springfield left open as Republican Brad Roark runs for county commissioner. Though Schoolcraft boasts an “A” rating from the NRA(higher than Schoeller), Republicans have very strong numbers in the District and Schoeller will pull out the win.
161st District: Gary Branum-R v. Steve Hodges-D
The race for the 161st District is about as close as it comes to a tossup. The numbers are just about even in the contest for the seat of term-limited Lanie Black. As two strong candidates battle it out, Branum wins by a hair.
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Posted by: at 1:08 pm | Category: 06 | Link & Discuss (2)
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State House Analysis - part II
8th District: Kathy Chinn*-R v. Tom Shively-D
Chinn and Shively face off in a rematch of 2004. Chinn won by 3.4%, but this race could be different. Democrats believe that Chinn’s support and ownership of confined animal feeding operations (CAFOs), which have drawn complaints for their smell and pollution, have turned voters toward Shively. When all is said and done, Shively will rise above the muck.
24th District: Ed Robb*-R v. Jim Ritter-D
How much of a factor money plays in elections is a subject of great debate. The candidates in the 24th District aren’t taking any chances. In fact, they’ve set a record for the most expensive state representative race in Missouri history. Both candidates have raised nearly $110,000 as of the October filing, and they’ve each spent over $70,000 of it. And that’s not including any money spent by the state parties on their behalf. According to House Minority Leader Jeff Harris, “Columbia is the most expensive place to run for House” because “you’re expected to do television.” After the dust settles, Ed Robb will emerge the winner.
32nd District: John DeStefano-R v. Jason Grill-D
Another big money race, Grill has raised over $110,000. He lost to Susan Phillips in 2004 by 1.2 % (224 votes). Now the seat is open and Grill is running against DeStefano, who we’re told is the father of Grill’s best friend. DeStefano’s campaign has denied involvement in alleged push polling. Similar calls have been reported in at least one other District which suggests they are part of a broader plan. The race will be incredibly close, but this one’s a pickup for the Democrats.
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