Over the past few election cycles the Weidenbaum Center at Washington University has sponsored a debate between the candidates for Missouri's Third Congressional District. Several weeks ago I agreed to participate in such a debate scheduled for October 16. I was told that the incumbent, Russ Carnahan, had told the Weidenbaum Center to "pencil him in." At a town hall meeting on Monday I personally asked Mr. Carnahan if he would debate me on October 16. He answered "I believe, I got the invitation."
On Friday I was told that Mr. Carnahan would not be able to debate because, according to his staff, he was "too busy."
I hope Mr.Carnahan changes his mind and decides to engage in the debate. The people of Missouri's Third District deserve to see the candidates in action.
Missouri 3rd Congressional District
From Tom Weber's KWMU story: "Frisella coached high school and college soccer for many years and was inducted in the St. Louis Old Time Soccer Hall of Fame in 2001."
Playing to Jeff Co?
Not great, but with the competition melting away, maybe it doesn't really matter.
Raised $164,844. $194,532 cash on hand.
Nice job getting PAC money - $96,851, but still over $100k in debt and expenses ran over 100k.
Former 3rd CD candidate Corey Mohn is moving back to Kansas City.
But Colin Murphy of the Vital Voice sent me this report:
I was very pleased to see Rep. Russ Carnahan not only ride in this years Gay Pride Parade but take the stage following Mayor Francis Slay and address the crowd. This was my 16th year at St. Louis Pride and I don't ever recall seeing a U.S. Rep. in the parade, most notably, Dick Gephardt. (Gephardt's daughter Chrissy did attend two years ago during his failed presidential bid.) Carnahan was very well recieved. Smart move on his part but how will it play in the county?
Several city alderman and state legislators also either participated in the parade or stopped by the Gateway Stonewall Democrats tent to chat with festival goers. There was a definite "political feel" to this year's event that I was very glad to see.
Carnahan's April quarter filings look reasonably encouraging, and should begin to allay fears of "vulnerability."
The numbers: $220,736 raised; $83,640 spent; $138,888 on hand.
Critics still cite his outstanding debt ($136,374) and considerable expenditures as problems.
Additionally, I'm changing my analysis of how Johnson's loss in the 22nd affects Carnahan. I had thought that Alter's victory gave the Republicans a foothold there from which to launch their campaign against Carnahan.
Forget foothold. Try turn-out.
The most likely scenario now is that Ryan McKenna (who narrowly lost his bid to be the Dem nominee) will run against Alter in two years. Should be a spirited race and will heighten turn-out in the district. What kind of turn-out is the question. Will feisty Democrats longing to retake the seat turn-out and vote Carnahan as well? Or, without a liberal in the race, will the turn-out be heightened among pro-life, pro-gun voters thereby supplying extra votes to his opponent?
I think those are more accurate questions to chew on.
An excerpt from the Cook report
OFF TO THE RACES
House 2006: Looking For A Few Good Races
By Charlie Cook
Tuesday, March 22, 2005
A very early preview of 2006 House races shows slim pickings for both sides... With the caveat that unpredictable events could always impact the 2006 landscape, Republicans do not appear to be in danger of losing their majority...
...Beyond this group, there are few other districts that look vulnerable.
Republicans are likely to put long-time targets Reps. Darlene Hooley (Ore.-05), Jim Matheson (Utah-02), Dennis Moore (Kan.-03) and Earl Pomeroy (N.D.-At Large) in their sights, but there is little reason to believe that these incumbents are in any danger of losing their seats. All have survived rough and tumble campaigns in the past. Freshman Reps. Russ Carnahan (Mo.-03) and Brian Higgins (N.Y.-27) won with less than 54 percent of the vote in 2004, but both sit in heavily Democratic districts and will be tough to unseat.
Tuesday night at the Lemp Mansion. The details.
It's back. Saw a bumper sticker for it the other day and then this press release from Congressman Carnahan:
For Immediate Release
March 15, 2005
Carnahan Co-Sponsors Equal Rights Ammendment
Congressman Russ Carnahan (D-MO) has joined other members of Congress in co-sponsoring the Equal Rights Amendment with the hopes that the 109th Congress will finally achieve official equality for women in America.
An amendment to guarantee equal rights to women has never been ratified and added to the U.S. Constitution, though it has been introduced into every session of Congress since it was written in 1923. The Equal Rights Amendment passed Congress in 1972, but it lapsed in 1982 when it fell three states short of ratification.
The Roll Call article mentioned in comments below can be found here, though I think you have to be a subscriber to read more than the first half-sentence.
I'm quoted but they confuse me with ArchPundit.
Richer, for Poorer
Some Potentially Vulnerable House Members Are Already Sitting on Bulging 2006 Campaign War Chests; Others Are Broke
By Josh Kurtz
Roll Call Staff
February 2, 2005
Several freshman House Members who just won costly, hard-fought elections begin their 2006 re-election battles with almost no money left in their campaign accounts, while others appear to have quickly started to replenish their re-election funds.
The same dichotomy holds true for more senior incumbents who can expect to be targeted by the other party in 2006.
These conclusions come from an analysis of the latest campaign statements that candidates and officeholders were required to file with the Federal Election Commission this week.
Roll Call looked at the 38 House Members who received 55 percent of the vote or less on Election Day. Most, though not all, can expect relatively vigorous challenges in 2006.
Using cash-on-hand figures ? that is, the amount of money candidates had left in their treasuries at the end of 2004 ? it would seem as though freshman Rep. Thelma Drake (R-Va.) is in the most dire financial straits. Her campaign had just $139 left in the bank on Dec. 31 after spending about $800,000 to win a late-starting competitive race to replace retiring Rep. Ed Schrock (R).
It remains to be seen whether Democrats will seriously contest the Republican-leaning southeast Virginia district in 2006. Drake?s opponent last year, highly touted attorney David Ashe, had $33,000 in the bank on Dec. 31.
On the Democratic side, Rep. Russ Carnahan (Mo.) had the least money on hand among freshmen in the 55 percent-or-less club, with just $7,700 in his bank account as of Dec. 31. Carnahan, who spent $1.3 million in 2004, could face a Democratic primary challenge next year from college professor Jeff Smith, one of the candidates he defeated in the race to succeed veteran Rep. Richard Gephardt (D). But the St. Louis-area seat is considered relatively safe for whomever is the Democratic nominee.
Next Monday Congressman Russ Carnahan will deliver a STATE OF THE DISTRICT ADDRESS hightligting the issues currently facing the 3rd Congressional District, as well as his goals for the 109th Congress.
Monday, February 7, 2005
175 Edgar Road
Congressman Russ Carnahan will take questions from the audience following his address. This event is open to the public.
It's a skill really.
Timing you're meanest, nastiest campaign literature to hit the mailboxes on the weekend before an election so there's no time for a rebuttal.
It's amazing Carnahan is a free man considering the allegations in this Federer piece.
Is the Federer campaign gay baiting voters? asks Vital Voice's Pam Schneider.
Will's comments are confirmed by this link which shows our Eric Lillard graduating from Carbondale High School in 1979. His name is not spelled correctly, but the address is his.
Over at Media Mayhem, Stelzer tracks down an article about an Eric Lillard formerly of Cleveland.
From the SOS office.
Favazza took 18.8% of the city vote. Jeff Smith won the city with 28.3%. He also nosed out a win St. Louis County with 27.7%
Amendment 2 failed in the city, but only narrowly.
Carnahan wins. What a race!
Statement From The Jeff Smith Campaign On Election Results
Yesterday we saw the power of our grassroots campaign as over 200 volunteers
beat the streets of the 3rd District spreading Jeff Smith's positive,
progressive message. The voters responded, vaulting our campaign into
victory in St. Louis City and St. Louis County.
This morning we await delivery of the votes from the final 41 precincts in
St. Louis city. We expect the City of St. Louis Board of Elections, under
the supervision of Mayor Slay, to release its findings. We will explore all
options at that time.
What is most important is that every vote is counted accurately, including
absentee and provisional ballots. It is equally important that all Election
Day irregularities be examined thoroughly.
We would like to express our respect for Russ Carnahan and all the hard work
that he and our other opponents poured into this contest. We look forward to
working with the entire Democratic slate towards victory in November.
Jeff Smith For Congress
Another Postcard from www.rustycarnahan.org hit mailboxes last night.
From the Jeff Smith campaign yesterday:
Carnahan Campaign Sinks To New Libelous Low
Today the sinking Russ Carnahan campaign stooped to a new low with slanderous phone calls saying that Jeff Smith is pro-life, and pro-gun.
Jeff Smith unequivocally supports a woman’s right to choose and supports common sense gun control such as the assault weapons ban and opposes Missouri’s dangerous concealed carry laws. His outspoken advocacy for these and other progressive positions such as universal healthcare and a foreign policy consistent with American values are the reason that his campaign has caught fire with the voters of the 3rd District. Tonight Smith finishes his Town Hall tour with an address to over 70 voters in South St. Louis city.
“The Carnahan campaign continues its slimy campaign of lies, libel, and distortion. First they claimed Russ was the only candidate to vote against conceal and carry. That was false. Joan Barry voted against it. Now they are sinking so fast in the polls that their volunteers or paid phone bankers are telling voters that Jeff Smith is pro-life and pro-gun. These charges are of course blatant libel and will be dealt with in court,” said Arthur Harris, Communications Director for Jeff Smith for Congress. Smith’s campaign is in the process of filing an FEC complaint against Carnahan.
Carnahan’s campaign can’t talk about Russ’ “thin” record of accomplishments, as the Post-Dispatch stated, so they must sink to lies, slander, and dirty politics. The voters of the 3rd District know better and will show so on August 3rd.
I ran into some subscribers last night and they immediately wanted to talk about The Postcard. My wife - who is not the political addict I am - comes home every night from work and asks about The Postcard.
Here is pretty much everything I know about the Postcard:
It was sent from Cleveland on or about July 20. The permit number 2371 belongs to Advanced Media which has offices in Cleveland and Boston. This is its web-site. Cleveland has no customer service operations. Speaking to a company official in Boston, they confirmed that this is their permit number, but cited customer privacy for refusing to reveal who paid for the mailing. 25,000 pieces were mailed. Experienced campaign-types have estimated to me that to do a mailing of this type would cost about $6000-7,000.
Because the website lets people order, the culprit could have been in Cleveland, Boston, St. Louis, California, Germany, Boliva etc. But there will be a paper trail, and faced with a subpoena, Advanced Media will have to release that information.
The Postcard says that the mailing is paid by www.rustycarnahan.org. Eric Lillard, of Web Expressions, registered that web-site on July 14. He has since changed the registration to John Doe, but it’s a little late to deny it since I and others have copies of the original registration. I called him on the phone and he was evasive and uncooperative.
Googling Web Expressions Inc, these are the web-sites that come up. Benjy Levin. Environmental Ironworks.
Here is the state registration for Web Expressions Inc.
Russ Carnahan campaign suspects Jeff Smith or Joan Barry had something to do with it. Their suspicions appear to rest largely on the Smith/Barry joint press conference outlining the same line of attack on Carnahan days before the Postcard arrived. In their complaint with the FEC, the Carnahan camp has a signed affidavit from Paul Schmid (don’t have it in front of me so this may be an incorrect spelling) stating that he called the Jeff Smith campaign, asked for Eric Lillard and was told that he wasn’t in but offered to take a message. The person who answered the phone, “Brian” seemed to know Eric Lillard.
The Smith campaign says that this is ridiculous. They have lots of volunteers, not everyone knows everyone. The person who answered the phone assumed that if the caller was asking for someone, that person worked there, so offered to take a message.
Meanwhile Carnahan supporter Norman Pressman sent a wide-sweeping affidavit to Jeff Smith to sign which denies all knowledge of the Postcard. Pressman is clearly more interested in turning up the heat on Smith than getting to the bottom of the Postcard affair, but Smith hasn't signed it.
The Postcard is illegal. If one of the campaigns is tied to it, it’s a felony. And someone may very well go to jail for fraudulent misrepresentation of campaign authority. However the FEC takes time to investigate, so don’t expect anything this year.
If an individual acted alone and without any campaign instructions or help, it is still illegal, again because of the misrepresentation. There is no www.rustycarnahan.org registered as an entity. Whether it would be a felony or not is unclear. However, it's hard for me to imagine that an individual would have a 25,000 frequent voter database handy. I believe that there's some tie to one of the campaigns.
Arch Pundit has also been digging and he has some additional information, but that’s for him to reveal when/if he feels it's relevant. As far as I know, he has not uncovered a smoking gun either.
From Mohn for Congress:
ST. LOUIS - Corey Mohn, candidate for U.S. Congress in Missouri's 3rd
Congressional District, began airing radio ads Monday on KMOX. The
primary ad, which calls for an end to the War in Iraq and a universal
health care system in America, will run daily through Election Day.
"The theme of my campaign from the beginning has been to focus this race
on the issues. Voters want a candidate that provides them with specific
solutions to the problems we all face. It is easy to talk about the
problems, let's talk about what we are going to do about fixing them.
That is why my campaign slogan is "STOP WHINING, START MOHNING". These
radio ads will help get the message out that voters need to give all
candidates consideration and make an educated choice.
The primary radio ad can be heard on the Mohn for Congress website -
www.mohn2004.com ; .
Press Release from Mark Smith for Congress:
Mark Smith Renews Request for Candidates to Sign Ethics Pledge
St. Louis- On Tuesday, Mark Smith renewed his request for the other candidates in the Third District Congressional race to sign his Campaign Code of Ethics. Early in the race for the Third Congressional Democratic nomination, Mark Smith drafted, signed and asked all the other candidates to sign a Campaign Code of Ethics.
In light of the recent charges and countercharges that have been traded among Joan Barry, Jeff Smith and Russ Carnahan, Mark has renewed his request to the other candidates to join Cory Mohn, Joann Karll and Mark Smith to sign his pledge. “If only all the candidates would have signed and followed the Campaign Code of Ethics we could have avoided the problems that we are now seeing. We need to replace Dick Gephardt with someone who acts like a Congressman, not like a bickering school child,” stated Mark Smith today. “If the candidates had signed the document, we could have avoided all of these problems and we could instead focus on the candidates and the issues.”
Adolphus Busch gave to Jeff Smith, but August Busch donates to Stoll.
Meanwhile Frontiere gives to Carnahan, perhaps hedging her bet after giving to Barry one week ago.
Stunning the pundits.
Mark Smith wins the Post-Dispatch endorsement for 3rd CD!
From Mike Evans:
Dear Friends, Family, and other supporters:
This has been an amazing journey over the past eight months that I have been in the race to replace Congressman Dick Gephardt to represent Missouri's Third District. I have gained so much from meeting the many different people of this region, and it is something that I will always remember. It is with a heavy heart that I announce first to you, my friends and family, that I have decided to end my campaign for Congress.
The message of equality for all Americans has been well recieved across the district and I feel good about what we have accomplished in this campaign. I urge you to continue the fight for equal healthcare for all Americans, equal tax laws for all income levels, and equal rights for anyone who is in love and would like to enter into marriage! I urge you to help bring an end to George Bush's Presidency and put a man who cares about America in the White House. I will be fighting in the coming months to help put Missouri in the Kerry column.
I appreciate the support that you have given to me and this campaign. We, in the Third District, face a tough choice. We must now choose a candidate who will continue to fight for us the way Richard Gephardt has over the past two decades. I strongly believe that Jeff Smith is the candidate who best represents our district and our beliefs. If you have not taken time to learn about Jeff Smith I challenge you to learn more about him at his website www.jeffsmith2004.com. Jeff is a strong advocate for many of the same issues that I hold dear to me. Education, healthcare and equal rights are all issues where I stand in line with Jeff Smith. I know that Jeff will make a fine Congressman - and someone who we can be proud to represent us.
Thank you again, this has been an amazing campaign.
Candidate for Congress
Missouri's Third Congressional District
Press Release to Arch City Chronicle on Mark Smith for Congress
Mark Smith has bought the most air time of any of the candidates running for the third district race. Mark is for three major institutions. He wants to fight health care, not other candidates. He wants to help the economy, and get people jobs, and get them back to working enough hours so that they can support their families again. Mark is not just looking for a new job himself. Mark wants to make sure that the children of the Third District get educated, and he will do whatever he can in congress to make sure that our needs are met. Mark has experience as former president of the police board, as a lawyer for a major law firm, and as a dean of the law school at Wash U Law. He can be our next congressman.
Carnahan kicks in another $49,000 to his campaign. This puts the total amount he has contributed to his campaign at $114,100.
Handicapping the 2004 Primary: 3rd Congressional District
By Tim Barnhart
In the Democratic Primary for this safely Democratic seat, what was initially thought to be a coronation for State Rep. Russ Carnahan has turned into a wide-open free-for-all. There are 10 candidates, most of whom have significant credentials and bases of support. With so many strong candidates dividing the vote, factors that swing just a percentage point or two can be decisive. Any candidate who can top 25% will win.
The one-time sure thing for Carnahan fell victim to a growing perception that Russ is the dim bulb on the Carnahan family tree. He just doesn’t seem to measure up to the legacy of his father (the late Governor Mel) or his mother (former Senator Jean), and he is overshadowed as well by sister Robin (unopposed for the Democratic nomination for Secretary of State). These perceptions were compounded by disappointing early fundraising results. That was just enough to break down the early bandwagon. Now Russ must scratch it out with the others. Here are some of the factors that may decide who wins:
Ideology. The formerly conservative district is now nearly evenly divided between conservative and progressive (“liberal”) voters, at least in the Democratic primary. A single dominant liberal or conservative would win easily, but there are too many strong candidates in both camps for that to happen. While the mix of social and economic issues make some candidates hard to peg, most observers believe that liberals will be drawn to Carnahan, Jeff Smith, Mark Smith, former State Rep. Jo Ann Karll, Corey Mohn and Mike Evans, while conservatives will opt among Sen. Steve Stoll, former State Rep. Joan Barry, Circuit Clerk Mariano Favazza and Michael Bram. Jeff Smith especially appeals to liberals who favored Howard Dean prior to that campaign’s implosion, and the small but loyal cadre of Dennis Kucinich supporters has one of their own in Mohn.
Single-issue politics. Abortion and gay marriage are getting lots of attention. But in a divided field, the important issue is the one that sets out one major candidate from all the others. In a primary, that is often an issue on which a candidate’s position is out-of-sync with the party. The single issue that could be decisive in this contest is gun control. The field favors gun control (or at least opposes “conceal and carry”), except for Stoll and Bram, and Bram’s candidacy has lots of other problems. The National Rifle Association could snare a seat in a largely urban district with a stealth campaign to get its members to vote in the Democratic Primary for Stoll. I have no indication whether or not that’s actually happening.
Geography and “home turf” loyalty. The biggest geographic factor is the pervasive anti-St. Louis bias that outstate voters demonstrate regularly. Voters in Jefferson and Ste. Genevieve Counties identify more with outstate Missouri than their urban neighbor. This gives Stoll, from Jefferson County, a big advantage in those counties (about a third of the district). He has to share home-turf advantage with Karll in northern Jefferson County, but his conservative stances on abortion and guns sell better there than the pro-choice Karll. Barry is expected to run strong in her St. Louis County base, but 2002 redistricting removed much of that territory from the district. Some pundits give Carnahan a similar edge in south city, but the recently transplanted Rolla native is not really well positioned to claim hometown loyalty. On the other hand, his Rolla roots will help him encroach on Stoll’s turf south of the Meramec. Favazza will win a chunk of the conservative part of the city vote, but votes of city progressives are up for grabs. So are voters in central St. Louis County, from University City to Webster Groves.
Money and Media. The marginally inattentive voter (who throws away political doordrops and direct mail without looking at them) can only be reached by television and radio ads, and half the field has raised enough money to afford air time. Carnahan’s fundraising, though disappointing, is still better than any other Democrat (though well behind Republican Bill Federer), and Carnahan was first to hit the air. Jeff Smith’s war chest could challenge Carnahan on the airways, but rumors say he may spend it elsewhere (which would fail to capitalize on one of the photogenic candidate’s primary assets). Mark Smith, Stoll and Barry also have six-figure balances which could buy some air time. No one else raised as much as $35,000.
Organizational endorsements. Organizational endorsements are waning in importance, but could still provide the winning edge in a wide-open field like this. Carnahan has the support of Planned Parenthood and the gay rights organization PROMO, but not his mother’s home township (Clayton), which backed Jeff Smith. Barry enjoys healthy support from organized labor, in spite of her social conservatism, and the St. Louis Police Officers Association. She scored five important ward endorsements in Favazza’s back yard, but Favazza’s dominance in yard signs in those wards (an admittedly risky measure of support) suggests that many voters are unimpressed with those endorsements. Stoll enjoys support from teachers unions (despite his opposition to abortion rights) in addition to strong party backing south of the Meramec. He trumped the other pro-life candidates by winning the Missouri Right to Life endorsement. Stoll’s endorsement by the 9th Ward organization seems like an important coup in Carnahan’s home district, but that organization’s clout is eroded by the emerging political influence of the progressive Jeanette Mott Oxford.
Motivated grassroots organization. In the similarly wide-open 2000 Republican primary in the 2nd District, State Rep. Todd Akin defeated better known and better financed opponents because he had the most dedicated core of volunteers. Grassroots intensity often flows to candidates like Akin, underdogs with a fighting chance. So who has the fired up troops this year in the 3rd? The liberal candidate with the most intense grassroots loyalty seems to be Jeff Smith. He apparently picked up many of those who had been prepared to support State Sen. Joan Bray before she dropped out, and those people are among the best grassroots organizers in the area. Howard Dean’s endorsement adds to the atmosphere. The grassroots candidate of the Right is Favazza. Conservative rivals Stoll and Barry have garnered most of the conservative ward, township and organizational endorsements, but Favazza has beaten that before. His intensely loyal grassroots support outflanked overwhelming organizational opposition when he upset Circuit Clerk Mavis Thompson in 1998. This year, his carefully targeted high-turnout areas are seeing an impressive flurry of his signs and flyers. He is a shrewd strategist, he feasts on foes who underestimate him, and he knows how to win votes. However, his recent retaliatory strike against Barry-backing Aldermanic President Jim Shrewsbury was a strategic blunder that will backfire.
Gender loyalty. One of politics’ dirty little secrets is that, all things being equal, voters tend to vote for candidates of their own gender. Data show this to be especially true among women. This factor probably only amounts to one or two percentage points, but in a divided field, those votes could be decisive. It is noteworthy that while Jeff Smith inherited many of Bray’s former supporters, three prominent women in that camp backed Karll in the Clayton Township endorsement vote. There are only two women in the race, and the ideological differences between the socially conservative Barry and the liberal Karll lessen the chance that they will compete for the same votes.
Name confusion. Former Mayor Freeman Bosley, Jr. won his first election when a political unknown with the same last name as Bosley’s major opponent drew more votes than Bosley’s margin of victory. This year, unrelated Jeff and Mark Smith will each probably lose some votes to each other due to voter confusion, and the stronger Smith will lose more. On the other hand, Barry may pick up support from voters who confuse her with well-respected former candidate Bray.
Ballot placement. Jeff Smith won the lottery to appear first on the ballot. The bottom spot (often regarded as the next best ballot placement) belongs to Karll.
Bandwagon. Many casual, unaligned voters in the St. Louis area seem to use voting as an exercise in personal affirmation. They feel better about themselves if they vote for the candidate who wins. Subconsciously (or sometimes even consciously) they seek out who is going to win and then vote that way. This phenomenon helps explain why so many voters in the 3rd District voted for Dick Gephardt in his contest and (until 2000) for John Ashcroft in his, in the same trip to the polls! Carnahan entered the race as the “presumptive nominee,” and he still enjoys that aura among those who aren’t paying attention. Television and radio ads over the last three weeks will reinforce this impression, unless another candidate can outdo Carnahan with more or better commercials. Only the monied candidates have a shot at this pathetic but frequently decisive bloc of voters.
Turnout. This factor interacts with the others and helps determine which ones matter. The voters who vote in low-turnout elections are the well informed regulars, whose decisions are less affected by media advertising. Strong grassroots candidates do well in low-turnout elections. The additional voters who participate in high-turnout elections tend to be marginally inattentive, and are the most likely to be swayed by bandwagon psychology and advertising. So a high turnout favors the monied candidates, while a low turnout favors candidates with strong organization backing and good grassroots organizations. Selective turnout is even more important. A controversial ballot measure or other primary contest that attracts voters of a particular ideological bent or those from just one region can be decisive. Amendment 2 may attract both progressives favoring gay marriage and “Religious Right” opponents, but the extra voters who take a Democratic ballot will be predominantly liberal. Contentious Democratic primaries for state representative for Carnahan’s old seat and in the western part of the city will also attract disproportionately liberal voters. On the other hand, the Democratic turnout in left-leaning central St. Louis County will be eroded by well-publicized Republican primary contests involving Clayton’s Gene McNary, Shrewsbury’s Kurt Odenwald and Webster Groves’ Joan McGivney. Barry’s south county base will also be eroded by contested GOP primaries involving Sen. Anita and Bob Yeckel.
This analysis has very little to say about Mark Smith, because I have never figured out the source of his support. He is personable and has sound proposals and a credible resume, but the same can be said of most of his opponents. His stint as police board president has attracted business backers, but not the Police Officers Association. Others apparently know what I don’t, though, because he is among the leading fundraisers and his lawn sign representation in my neighborhood is more than respectable. Other pundits list him among the handful given a decent chance of winning.
So, all things considered, who wins? The divided candidate field means that any of a half dozen candidates have a serious shot at winning, so it wouldn’t be that surprising if the person I have picked to come in 5th or 6th actually takes the prize.
If turnout is low, Stoll and Jeff Smith could win. Jeff Smith seems to be gaining momentum among seriously progressive Democrats, but I give the edge to Stoll if turnout is low. His campaign has a classic “niche” appeal that could snare the plurality in a divided field. His “niche” is conservative Democrats favoring his pro-life, pro-gun and anti-gay-marriage positions. Notably he is the only “serious” pro-gun Democrat in the contest (Bram doesn’t count). If the National Rifle Association gears up a stealth campaign to get its members to vote in the Democratic Primary, Stoll probably wins.
However, I believe that turnout will be at least moderate, and in the end, the sophisticated factors I have discussed will cancel each other out, leaving money and name recognition to carry the day. So in spite of campaign disappointments and the “dim bulb” aura alluded to earlier, Carnahan is my pick to win it all, with Stoll a close second. Barry’s smart media campaign identifying her with health care will vault her into third ahead of Jeff Smith. Karll, Favazza and Mark Smith will battle for fifth, while Mohn will lead the bottom three, ahead of Evans, with Bram coming in last.
In the Republican primary, “Religious Right” conservative and two-time nominee Bill Federer faces former Webster Groves council member Joan McGivney in a district that is much less conservative than in Federer’s prior runs. Federer has raised nearly $900,000 (50% more than the leading Democrat), but 90% has been frittered away with little to show for it. His campaign reports disclose substantial fundraising expenses, large wireless bills and high bank fees from a Virginia bank (including bounced check charges). The capable, articulate and moderate (almost liberal) McGivney will run well in her home turf and in less conservative additions to the district (Maplewood and portions of Richmond Heights, Clayton and University City). It is unclear whether Federer’s well-publicized legal hassles with a vindictive Gephardt campaign will draw sympathy from GOP voters or leave them wanting to try someone new. Federer has greater name recognition and intense loyalty from Religious Right voters, so the primary is his to lose.
Libertarian Kevin Babcock has no primary opposition.
Statement From Jeff Smith Campaign Press Secretary Arthur Harris
The record shows Russ Carnahan has one of the worst attendance records in the Missouri legislature. He missed more work than 120 (82%) of his colleagues in the State House in 2003 and more work than 132 (88%) of his colleagues in 2004. Throughout his career he has missed crucial votes on core progressive values such as healthcare, education, protecting the environment, and conceal and carry. That's what the record shows.
Jeff Smith has shown throughout his life that he is dedicated to the core progressive values he has focused his campaign on. While teaching courses at Washington University, Jeff spent thousands of hours working to provide high quality public education to children in St. Louis city. Jeff Smith is exactly the kind of representative we need in Washington D.C. He has a record of accomplishment, vision, and hard work.
From the Carnahan campaign:
TRAILING CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATES MISLEAD VOTERS
Joan Barry tries to bury her record and Jeff Smith tries to obscure that
he has none
"I am disappointed to see that Joan Barry and Jeff Smith
have desperately resorted to the low road in this campaign. Their lame
attempt to mislead and deceive the voters of the 3rd Congressional
District is just flat wrong," Russ Carnahan said.
"I have a 94 percent voting record while in the Missouri
House of Representatives. These tactics will only increase the voters'
cynicism about the political process and public service in general,"
Carnahan pointed out that by standing up in a joint press
conference today, Joan Barry and Jeff Smith have taken responsibility
for the numerous "anonymous smear sheets" full of false information that
has been produced and distributed around the district. This has been a
coordinated effort by these two campaigns all along. That puts them in
violation of campaign disclosure laws.
"I call on them, as required by the FEC, to properly report
these expenditures and print their legal committee name on all
literature and documents distributed by their campaigns," stated Allen
Todd, Campaign Manager for Russ Carnahan.
"Today we have a new odd couple in Missouri politics," said
Todd. "What is Jeff Smith doing standing with a candidate that with a
record of being anti-choice, pro-gun, and pro-HMO? That goes against
the claims he purportedly stands for."
"Russ Carnahan has made 94 percent of the votes that
occurred while he has been in the Missouri House. Joan Barry knows it.
Jeff Smith knows it. The Official Journals of the Missouri House of
Representatives show it. I guess we should all be thankful that Jeff
Smith is not teaching math or ethics," said Todd.
Joan Barry and Jeff Smith made it clear that they know they
can't win this race on their own or on the issues. Russ Carnahan is the
only candidate that has consistently voted against conceal and carry
legislation in the legislature. Joan Barry cannot make this claim. She
voted for the concealed carry ballot measure (SS HCS HB 1891,
05/15/1998), against requiring firearms to be inaccessible by children
(HA 4 HS HB 283, 04/12/1999) and took the maximum contribution allowed
by law from the National Rifle Association (Missouri Ethics Commission,
Jeff Smith's statement:
When I began this race, I was an unknown 30 year old without political connections or any way to raise money. Now I enter the last two weeks of the primary with more cash on hand than Russ Carnahan, who has the best political name in the state. The reason for this is simple: those who know my best-known opponent do not seem to have confidence in his ability to work hard for the people of the 3rd District in United States Congress.
Over the past nine months I’ve gotten to know many of my opponents. Joan Barry has earned my respect with her hard work, grace, and dedication to her convictions. While I disagree with her on some key issues, we agree on one fundamental thing: Russ Carnahan, while a nice and decent man, has consistently missed important work and critical votes in Jefferson City. He has not displayed the work ethic, dedication, and energy needed to effectively serve the people of the 3rd District in United States Congress. I supported Mel and Jean Carnahan for years, but Russ Carnahan’s record of missed votes on core progressive issues such as healthcare, the environment, and conceal-carry gun laws indicate that he would not be diligent about his responsibilities to the people of the 3rd District in United States Congress. It’s most important that we elect a representative who will fight for the men, women, and children of the 3rd District, not someone who takes their role for granted. Let me make this clear: this is nothing personal. This is about the record. I urge the people of the 3rd District to let the issues and the candidates’ respective work ethics decide this race. Please visit all of the candidates’ websites and compare our issue positions to see which one you think would best represent your values. To date, although Mr. Carnahan has run a campaign based on his experience in the state legislature, his record has escaped examination. I urge you to please examine the information provided to you and see if he can explain the lackadaisical manner with which he has conducted himself as a state legislator.
Statement from Joan Barry's campaign:
Today at the Old Court House in St. Louis Joan Barry set the record straight about Russ Carnahan. “I can no longer sit and allow Russ Carnahan to distort the real truth about his record,” said Barry. “In his mere four years as state representative, Russ Carnahan has managed to miss a staggering number of important votes on important legislation. Legislation that today he is trying to take credit for.”
Russ Carnahan missed 10 out of 17 days - almost 60% - of the two Special Legislative Sessions that were called to solve the education funding crisis in Missouri. (June and September 2003)
Some of the other important votes missed by Russ Carnahan:
• Russ Carnahan missed a vote to ban concealed weapons. (Source: HB 349, House Journal, March 6, 2003)
• Russ Carnahan missed a vote to restrict landfill construction within ¼ mile of a home or school. (Source: HA 13 HCS SS SCS SB 36, House Journal, April 30, 2003)
• Russ Carnahan missed a vote to help prevent identity theft. (Source: HB 1762, House Journal, March 21, 2002)
• Russ Carnahan missed a vote to help law enforcement. (Source: HB 1183, House Journal, March 15, 2004)
• Russ Carnahan missed a vote that would have provided mental health services to Missourians. (Source: HB 1440, House Journal, March 21, 2002)
And Russ Carnahan missed over 120 votes in just the last ten legislative months!
“It is time that the people of the 3rd Congressional District find the real truth about Russ Carnahan,” continued Barry. “While Russ has portrayed himself as a fighter for education, seniors and families, the truth is Russ did not bother to even show up to fight. He was absent!”
“I will go to Washington, as I did in Jefferson City, and I will work everyday because the residents of the 3rd District deserve a Representative who will show up and fight for them,” finished Barry.
In 2001, Carnahan voted for the law banning gay marriage.
According to FEC report filed yesterday, Russ Carnahan kicked in another $15,000 to his 3rd CD campaign bringing his total contributions to $65,100. His wife is also listed for $2,000.
The amount that 3rd CD candidates are betting on their campaigns is the topic of a column I've written for the St. Louis Business Journal this friday.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
JOAN BARRY BEGINS BROADCASTNG TV AD
St. Louis, Mo. – Third Congressional District Democratic Candidate Joan
Barry has officially released her television advertisement. Barry is one
of a select few in the crowded field of ten who has the resources to
deliver her message through mass media.
Barry’s thirty-second ad reinforces her leadership in Jefferson City,
especially in sponsoring and passing key pieces of legislation including
the Women’s Health Initiative. A registered nurse, Barry’s ad also touts
her experience in the area of health care and her ability to lead efforts
to reform health care on the national level.
“I am proud of my record of dedicated service and effective leadership in
Jefferson City,” says Barry. “I’m excited to share my message with
“This is an important step for our campaign; it solidifies our presence as
a leader in this race and is emblematic of our campaign’s growing
momentum,” says Barry.
Barry served four terms in the Missouri Legislature where she led the
expansive Children, Families, and Health Committee. Barry officially
announced her candidacy on May 25, 2003.
League of Women Voters Debate #1
Monday, July 19, 2004 - 7:00 pm
Fox School District Rickman Auditorium
747 Jeffco Blvd.
Arnold, MO 63010
Press Release from Jeff Smith Campaign:
Jeff Smith Campaign Condemns Carnahan For False TV Ad
REAL DEMOCRATS STAND UP ALL THE TIME
“Russ Carnahan’s slogan is ‘A Real Democrat Makes A Difference.’ I believe that’s true, unfortunately, you have had to show up to make a difference,” said Jeff Smith campaign Communications Director Artie Harris. “Carnahan claims to have fought against concealed carry, but he didn’t bother to vote against it in March of 2003.
Russ Carnahan MISSED a critical vote against concealed carry bill HB 349 on March 6 of 2003. [St. Louis Post-Dispatch, 3/7/03]
Carnahan’s television ad polishes his record in the Missouri House and implies that he stands up and fights for progressive values such as common sense gun control. In fact, Carnahan’s attendance record in the Missouri House is spotty on crucial issues such as conceal and carry legislation that passed in 2003.
“Moreover, Russ Carnahan’s first television commercial contains false and misleading information that distorts his record and that of other candidates,” Harris said.
Carnahan’s ad claims that he is the only candidate in this race who voted against HB 1729 in 2002, which was a conceal carry bill. This is false. Joan Barry voted against HB 1729 on April 25th, 2002. [House Journal, 59th Day, 4/25/02]
Canvasser just came by my door and gave me a lit piece about Russ Carnahan.
"To protect our children, he is the only candidate for Congress who has voted against conceal-and-carry."
The Barry camp's press release:
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Contact: Julie Murphy
JOAN BARRY CAMPAIGN DIRECTOR CALLS ON RUSS CARNAHAN TO PULL HIS FALSE TELEVISION AD
“Russ Carnahan’s new television ad is blatantly false and I call on him to immediately pull the ad off the air,” said Julie Murphy, Campaign Director for Joan Barry.
In his television ad, Russ Carnahan uses his no vote on HB1729 to claim that he is the only candidate who stood up to the gun lobby and voted against the conceal and carry law. This is simply not true. In fact, Joan Barry voted NO on the exact same bill, HB1729 (House Journal, April 25, 2002). Joan Barry has opposed conceal and carry legislation throughout her legislative career and for Russ Carnahan to suggest otherwise is just wrong.
What Russ Carnahan fails to tell voters is that when the Missouri House Bill allowing concealed weapons came up for a critical vote in 2003, Russ Carnahan was absent. (House Journal, March 6, 2003.)
Check the public record. Check Carnahan’s absentee record. The voters in the Third Congressional District deserve better.
House Journal documentation is attached.
Journal of the House
Second Regular Session, 91st General Assembly
FIFTY-NINTH DAY, Thursday, April 25, 2002
HS HCS HBs 1729, 1589 & 1435, relating to concealable weapons, was taken up by Representative Barnitz.
On motion of Representative Barnitz, HS HCS HBs 1729, 1589 & 1435 was read the third time and passed by the following vote:
Ballard Barnett Barnitz Bartelsmeyer Bartle Bearden Behnen Berkowitz Berkstresser Black Boatright Bonner Britt Burton Byrd
Champion Cierpiot Clayton Cooper Crawford Crowell Crump Cunningham Davis Dempsey Dolan Enz Farnen Froelker Gaskill Gratz Green 15 Griesheimer Hampton Hartzler Hegeman Henderson Hickey Holt Hunter Jetton Kelley 47 Kelly 144 Kelly 36 Koller Lawson Legan Liese Linton Lograsso Long Luetkemeyer Luetkenhaus Marble Marsh May 149 Mayer Mays 50 McKenna Merideth Miller Moore Murphy Myers Naeger Ostmann Overschmidt Phillips Portwood Purgason Quinn Ransdall Rector Reid Reinhart Relford Richardson Ridgeway Roark Robirds Ross Schwab Scott Secrest Seigfreid Selby Shields Shoemaker Shoemyer Smith Surface Townley Treadway Vogel Wagner Ward Whorton Wright Mr. Speaker
Baker Barry 100 Bland Boucher Bowman Bray 84 Brooks Campbell Carnahan Curls Daus Fares Franklin Fraser Gambaro George Graham Green 73 Hagan-Harrell Hanaway Harding Harlan Haywood Hendrickson Hilgemann Hollingsworth Hoppe Hosmer Johnson 61 Johnson 90 Jolly Jones Kelly 27 Lowe O'Toole Paone Reynolds Rizzo Scheve Shelton Skaggs St. Onge Thompson VillaWalker Walton Williams Willoughby Wilson 25 Wilson 42
ABSENT WITH LEAVE: 013
Abel Boykins Burcham Copenhaver Foley Hohulin Holand King Monaco Nordwald O'Connor Troupe Van Zandt
JOURNAL OF THE HOUSE
First Regular Session, 92nd GENERAL ASSEMBLY
THIRTY-THIRD DAY, THURSDAY, MARCH 6, 2003
HS HCS HBs 349, 120, 136 & 328, relating to concealed firearms, was taken up by Representative Crawford.
Representative Crawford offered House Perfecting Amendment No. 1.
House Perfecting Amendment No. 1
AMEND House Substitute for House Committee Substitute for House Bill Nos. 349, 120, 136 & 328, Page 7, Section 571.094, Lines 105 and 106, by deleting the words “subsections 9 and 10" and inserting in lieu thereof the words “subsections 10 and 11"; and
Further amend said bill, Page 22, Section 571.094, Line 636, by deleting the number “26" and inserting in lieu thereof the number “22".
On motion of Representative Crawford, House Perfecting Amendment No. 1 was adopted.
On motion of Representative Crawford, HS HCS HBs 349, 120, 136 & 328, as amended, was read the third time and passed by the following vote:
Abel Angst Avery Baker Barnitz Bean Bearden Behnen Bivins Black Bough Bringer Bruns Byrd Cooper 120 Cooper 155 Crawford Crowell Cunningham 145 Cunningham 86 Davis 122 Davis 19 Deeken Dempsey Dethrow Dixon Dusenberg Emery Engler Ervin Goodman Green Guest Hampton Harris 110 Henke Hobbs Holand Hunter Icet Jackson Jetton Johnson 47 Kelly 144 Kelly 36 King Kingery Kuessner Lager Lawson Lembke LeVota Liese Lipke Luetkemeyer Marsh May Mayer McKenna Merideth Miller Moore Morris Munzlinger Myers Nieves Parker Pearce Phillips Portwood Pratt Purgason Quinn Ransdall Rector Reinhart Richard Roark Ruestman Rupp Sager Sander Schlottach Schneider Seigfreid Selby Self Shoemaker Shoemyer Smith 118 Smith 14 St. Onge Stefanick Stevenson Sutherland Taylor Threlkeld Townley Viebrock Wallace Ward Wasson Whorton Wilson 119 Wilson 130 Witte Wood Wright Yates Young
Bishop Bland Boykins Brooks Burnett Campbell Corcoran Curls Darrough Daus Donnelly El-Amin Fares Fraser George Graham Harris 23 Hoskins Hubbard Johnson 90 Jolly Jones Kratky Lowe Meiners Muckler Page Schoemehl Skaggs Spreng Thompson Villa Vogt Walker Walsh Walton Wildberger Willoughby Wilson 25 Wilson 42 Yaeger Zweifel
ABSENT WITH LEAVE: 010
Adams Brown Carnahan Dougherty Haywood Hilgemann Johnson 61 Salva Schaaf Wagner
Speaker Hanaway declared the bill passed.
Quick summing up the 3rd CD fundraising situation
Cash on hand
1. Jeff Smith - $272,963
2. Russ Carnahan - $236,380
3. Joan Barry - $215,678
4. Mark Smith - $157,636
5. Steve Stoll - $136,084
Will they use them, won’t they use them? Cash on hand if you subtract loans.
1. Jeff Smith - $240,963
2. Russ Carnahan - $185,380
3. Mark Smith - $157,636
4. Steve Stoll - $136,084
5. Joan Barry - $125,678
Steve Stoll, much lower than I expected, raised $79,931.00, spent $105,169.15 on salaries, consulting, office expenses and very, very little voter contact. $136,084.77 on-hand.
Jeff Smith shows $141,466.37 raised, some of it is in-kind which also shows up in expenses $58,908.23. So the key figure here is cash on-hand, $272,963.10. Take out his personal loans and you have $242,963. A pretty powerful sum.
Joan Barry raised $83,260.04. Good quarter for her. She also bucked in another $40,000 in loans to bring her cash on-hand to $215,678.42. Take out the loans and she's at $125,678.
Carnahan raised $155,292.39 during the quarter. Best so far, but still waiting on Steve Stoll.
Favazza raised $15,270.00.
From the Barry camp:
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
BARRY LOCKS IN “BIG THREE” CITY WARD ENDORSEMENTS
St. Louis, Mo. - St. Louis’ largest-voting ward is endorsing Joan Barry
for Congress. The 16th Ward, located in the southwest part of the city,
cites Barry’s experience in the State Legislature and calls Barry the
best candidate to represent the Third Congressional District.
Today’s announcement follows endorsements from St. Louis’ 12th and 23rd
wards. Along with the 16th, they comprise the three heaviest-voting wards
in the district and are well-known as politically influential wards in St.
“I think each of these ward organizations has made the right choice in
supporting Joan Barry for Congress,” said Aldermanic President Jim
Shrewsbury. “Joan’s views on the issues and her voting history in the
State Legislature prove that she has the common sense and experience to
represent St. Louis’ diverse population in Washington.”
“I am honored to receive the endorsement from the 16th Ward. This gives
my campaign has more momentum as we head into these last three critical
weeks before the Primary,” says Barry. “Their support shows that all
across the district, people want a Representative that experience and
shares their values. My message of providing quality affordable health
care and fighting for working families resonates with voters
71334.50 raised, 16424.32 spent, 157636.43 on-hand.
The Joan Barry in Congress Campaign is celebrating the Grand Opening of our
second campaign office with a volunteer rally and canvass. The details:
Saturday, July 10th
8 a.m. yard sign bonanza
9 a.m. rally, breakfast, tour of new office, speeches
9:30 a.m. canvass, phone banking, envelope stuffing
12:30 p.m. BBQ at Suson Park
Location: 1825 Lemay Ferry Road, just north of Reavis Barracks Road
For more information call (314) 353-0000
Jefferson County Democratic Clubs Candidates Forum
Tuesday, July 6, 2004 - 7:00 pm
House Springs Lion's Club
6482 Hwy MM
House Springs, MO 63051
Committee for a Progressive 3rd District in Missouri Debate
Thursday, July 8, 2004 - 7:00 pm
Five Church Older Adults Center
St. Louis, MO 63118
League of Women Voters Debate #1
Monday, July 19, 2004 - 7:00 pm
Fox School District Rickman Auditorium
747 Jeffco Blvd.
Arnold, MO 63010
League of Women Voters Debate #2
Monday, July 26, 2004 - 7:00 pm
Ascension Lutheran Church Gymnasium
St. Louis, MO 63109
LA Times on 3rd CD.
From the Barry Camp comes this enigmatic press release. Is it a campaign staff shuffle or just an honorary chair being announced?:
Contact: Julie Murphy
Wednesday June 30, 2004
South County Health Center
4580 South Lindbergh Blvd.
St. Louis, MO 63127
Chair of the Joan Barry In Congress Campaign will be announced.
From the Stoll Camp:
STOLL RECEIVES ENDORSEMENT OF MISSOURI BUSINESSES
Voice of 1,200 Small and Large Businesses throughout Missouri site Steve Stoll as the candidate with the experience and ability to change government.
St. Louis – Steve Stoll, candidate for the 3rd Congressional seat today proudly announces his endorsement from the Associated Industries of Missouri.
“We believe you (Steve Stoll) are the candidate who will best represent the views and philosophies of the business and employees in the 3rd Congressional District of Missouri, writes Executive Director Jim Kistler in a letter to the Senator.
“It is clear from your history of public service in the House of Representative, and in the Missouri Senate that you have the experience and ability to change government. The voters of the 3rd Congressional District will be well represented when you are elected,” Kistler finished.
“Throughout my years of public service I have fought for workers' compensation reform, health care cost containment, environmental regulation, unemployment compensation, and worked on labor-management issues,” said Stoll. “I am honored to have the support of the Associated Industries of Missouri, the 1200 businesses they represent and the hundreds of thousands of jobs that they work to protect and enrich every day.”
From the Jeff Smith Camp
**************FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE******************
June 24, 2004 - Jeff Smith announced the endorsement of Citizens for Global
Solutions in his bid to succeed Dick Gephardt in Missouri's 3rd District.
The endorsement confirms Smith's status as the progressive choice for
Congress and adds to Smith's growing list of endorsements including that of
Gov. Howard Dean.
Citizens For Global Solutions is a non-partisan organization with 17,000
members nation wide that believes there is an urgent need for solutions that
transcend national borders. Global Solutions is committed to the
establishment and reform of democratic global institutions and advocating
for an American foreign policy that works in concert with other nations to
solve international problems.
Don Kraus, Executive Director of CGS, said that Jeff "has the compassion,
commitment, and candor to bring leadership to his constituents and to the
U.S. House of Representatives. We wholeheartedly endorse his candidacy for
Kraus went on to say that the group supports Jeff Smith's goal of an engaged
America that plays a cooperative leadership role in the world. "From our
current situation in Iraq and Afghanistan to future threats and challenges,
Jeff has a vision of America working with concerned groups, other nations,
NATO, and the United Nations to find global and equitable solutions. He
pragmatically understands the contributions that international institutions
have and will continue to make in building a world safe for Americans.
Where many give lip service to these goals, we believe that Jeff will work
consistently to achieve them."
From Barry press release:
June 23, 2004
Contact: Lori Becker
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Joan Barry Receives Endorsement from Largest Union in Missouri in Her Bid for 3rd Congressional District St. Louis, Mo. - At their membership meeting on Tuesday, June 22, 2004, the members of the United Food and Commercial Workers Union, Local #655 voted to endorse Joan Barry in the 3rd Congressional District race. UFCW Local #655, which has over 14,000
members, represents over 1500 registered nurses at St. John's Mercy Medical Center. Barry, a registered nurse and former State Representative, fought for union representation in the nursing profession at St. Anthony's Medical Center where she works in the area of obstetrics.
"Joan has truly earned the endorsement of Local 655," says Jim Dougherty, executive assistant to the president of Local #655. "Her work to expand and improve health care, especially for women and children, has made a difference in the lives of millions of Missouri citizens. Health care is the single most talked about issue this election season. Joan Barry is on the front lines of the health care battle, she has echoed the sentiment of the RNs at St. John's Mercy Medical Center and she is the candidate who has the knowledge and skills to get the job done in Washington
Press Release from the Stoll camp:
STOLL SOLIDIFIES ST. LOUIS CITY SUPPORT
City Endorsement Broadens Candidate’s Base
St. Louis – 3rd Congressional District Candidate Steve Stoll this week received the nod from the Democrats of the 9th Ward.
“Steve is the apparent leader in this race – and he is proving to be the candidate who appeals to the entire District, not just the City or the County,” said Pat Ortman, 9th Ward Committeewoman. “I am proud of the work he has done for St. Louis Schools, and dedication he has to his constituents. I look forward to having him as my congressman.”
“No other of the candidates seeking the 3rd CD have as much experience as Senator Stoll. He has lived in the St. Louis area his entire life, and he has been making solid decisions on tough issues for 12 years in the Missouri Legislature. No other candidate can say that, because no other candidate has done that,” Ron Auer, 9th Ward Committeeman, and House colleague of Stoll’s. “Steve has seen continued success in his bid for the 3rd Congressional seat. Long ago he locked up the southern third of the District, and now he is taking on steady support from St. Louis City.
If Diatriber has been waiting for a sign, this might be it. Mark Smith has received the endorsement of Jay Farrar.
From the Jeff Smith campaign
GOV. HOWARD DEAN, Honorary Chair of Democracy for America
Will Be In St. Louis
TO RALLY FOR DEMOCRACY WITH LOCAL MEMBERS OF THE DEAN DOZEN
3RD CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT CANDIDATE JEFF SMITH
72nd STATE REP DISTRICT CANDIDATE MARIA CHAPPELLE-NADAL.
WHEN: SUNDAY, JUNE 20TH
12:15 Press Conference
1:00PM - Rally
WHERE: REGIONAL ARTS COMMISSION
6128 Delmar - Right across the street from the Pageant
Jeff Smith Contact: Art Harris
E-mail: [email protected]
Dean's Dozens: Lighting a Fire, Or Just Blowing Smoke?
By Stuart Rothenberg
Roll Call Contributing Writer
June 3, 2004
Howard Dean's new organization, Democracy for America, has already released the names of two dozen state, local and federal candidates who, it says, "represent the spirit of grassroots democracy" and "will all spread the message that to change America, progressives must compete."
Six of the 24 hopefuls are running for Congress. Judging by those House hopefuls, it's clear that electability isn't one of the criteria that Dean has used in selecting his favored candidates.
One of the half-dozen candidates, Illinois Senate hopeful, Barack Obama (D), is better-than-even money to capture the U.S. Senate seat left open by the retirement of Sen. Peter Fitzgerald (R).
Another of Dean's candidates, Oklahoma Congressional hopeful Kalyn Free (D), is an underdog in the Democratic primary but still a serious contender for the nomination. If she does win the Democratic primary for the seat left vacant by Rep. Brad Carson (D) - who's now running for Senate. Free could well win the seat.
The four other hopefuls, however, have little or no chance to win seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Jeff Smith, in Missouri's 3rd Congressional district, is an earnest young man. He's hard-working, he's doing a good job assembling a grass roots organization and he's utterly committed to a progressive agenda. He also faces two candidates who are far better positioned than he is: state Sen. Steve Stoll, a favorite of many who are close to retiring Rep. Richard Gephardt (D), and Russ Carnahan, son of the late Gov. Mel Carnahan (D) and former Sen. Jean Carnahan (D), who is a sentimental favorite of some Missouri Democrats.
I can't comment about the state and local candidates on Dean's list, but more than a couple of the U.S. House hopefuls on the list aren't even second-tier contenders for Congress. Their chances of being elected to Congress this year aren't much better than mine - and I'm not on the ballot anywhere.
So why does Dean's list include such long, long-shots as Cegelis and Smith rather than serious Democratic House candidates in places such as Georgia's 12th district, Arizona's 1st, Connecticut's 2nd, Washington's 8th and even Kentucky's 3rd, where the eventual Democratic nominee will have a credential or two and at least some chance of victory?
One factor is that some mainstream Democratic candidates would rather not be pinned with the Dean label. Morrison and Cegelis aren't in that category. They're running in bullet-proof Republican districts and thus have virtually no chance of winning. For them, the Dean endorsement at least brings notoriety and possibly some money. They have nothing to lose by being on the list.
In some cases, certainly including Obama and Free, the Democratic candidates are ideologically so left of center that they are comfortable with Dean's stamp of approval. Dean, who governed as a moderate but campaigned for president much farther to the left, seems to like candidates who are likely to speak for what has now become known as Howard Dean wing of the Democratic Party. And again, that's not where many Democrats need to be.
Dean, the doctor-turned-politician, may simply want to build a farm team - or even a "movement" - that might produce one or two potentially credible candidates down the road. But some Democrats undoubtedly would argue that their party is better off if Dean limits himself - and his fundraising ability - to identifying credible candidates who have a chance of winning in 2004.
Stuart Rothenberg is editor of the Rothenberg Political Report.
Press release from the Jeff Smith for Congress campaign
**************FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE******************
May 28th, 2004--- 3rd District Congressional candidate Jeff Smith announced his opposition to the state constitutional amendment to ban same sex marriage that will be on the August 3rd ballot. Smith, running to succeed Dick Gephardt, believes that all attempts to codify discrimination in the law, particularly the state constitution, are wrong and must be vigorously opposed.
“I vehemently oppose the proposed state constitutional amendment to ban same sex marriage that will go before the voters on August 3rd. Any attempt to codify discrimination is wrong and must be fought,” Smith said.” “In a state where it is still legal to fire someone based on sexual orientation, we need to use the state constitution to expand rights, not constrict them. I plan on voting against this state constitutional amendment and urge the rest of the voters of the 3rd District to do the same.”
Smith said that if the amendment passes it will reverse decades of progress in Missouri towards equality for gays and lesbians. Smith believes that if the state constitutional amendment passes it will open the door to all sorts of legalized discrimination based on the definition of marriage. “Already there are bills in the State House pending that would cut off state funding to institutions – like the University of Missouri- that include sexual orientation in their non-discrimination policy. This wrongheaded and discriminatory state constitutional amendment opens to the door to regressive laws like this.”
Joan Barry Receives Critical City Endorsements in Race for
3rd Congressional District
St. Louis, Mo. – Joan Barry, Democratic Candidate for Missouri’s 3rd
Congressional District has received endorsements from two critical city
wards. At their regular meeting on Wednesday evening, St. Louis City
Sheriff and Committeeman Jim Murphy and Committeewoman Janet Sullivan of
the 12th Ward, announced their support of Barry’s candidacy.
Murphy addressed about 30 members that made it through a tornado warning
to attend the meeting, “Joan is pro-life and pro-labor. She did a
fantastic job for Missouri in the legislature and she’s exactly who we
need in Washington D.C.”
St. Louis Recorder of Deeds and Committeewoman Sharon Carpenter and
Committeeman Francis R. Slay, have also endorsed Barry’s candidacy. The
23rd Ward is known to be one of the most politically powerful and
influential of all city wards. Their endorsement of Joan Barry’s candidacy
solidifies her presence as a viable candidate in St. Louis City.
“Joan is one of the best legislators I have ever worked with in Jefferson
City. She knows how to get the work done and that’s who we need to send to
D.C.,” said Carpenter. On a more personal note Carpenter says, “Joan is a
dear friend, and I admire her as a woman and a legislator.”
Slay says his reason for endorsing Barry is “she has the commitment and
the values that we in the 23rd Ward want in our candidates. We are
committed to helping her win this race.”
The 12th and 23rd Wards are located in deep south St. Louis City. Combined
they have over 15,000 registered voters. This brings Barry’s total number
of endorsements to twenty-three.
Barry, a registered nurse and former State Representative, resides in
Oakville with her husband Phillip. Barry announced her candidacy for the
3rd Congressional District one year ago this week.
Nothing special. But now everyone in the 3rd has a web-site up and running.
Arch Pundit told me about this. Here is the press release from the Jeff Smith campaign.
**************FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE******************
May 23rd, 2004--- 3rd District Congressional candidate Jeff Smith (D-St. Louis County) strongly condemns Republican Bill Federer for comparing a single payer system of universal health insurance to Nazi genocide.
At the Marine Villa neighborhood candidate forum, at St. Alexius hospital on St. Louis City’s South Side, Republican Bill Federer answered a question about universal health insurance by saying that the Nazi Germany was a socialist society that operated a single payer healthcare system until government revenue fell, at which point the Nazi’s began to slaughter the retarded and handicapped.
Smith said he had never heard anything quite so absurd as Federer’s comparison of proposals to improve the healthcare and quality of life of 44 million uninsured Americans to the Nazi slaughter of 12 million Jews, Gypsies, homosexuals, mentally retarded, handicapped, and other so called “undesirables,”
“I cannot believe that in 2004, I heard a candidate from a major party compare ideas about improving healthcare for the 44 million Americans who have no access to insurance to a methodical system of slaughter. The radical right wing in this country is so brainwashed by their hatred of government that Bill Federer legitimately seems to believe that subsidized healthcare led to the organized murder of millions.”
Smith continued, “Republicans like Bill Federer have no qualms about using the power of the state to spy on what library books you can read or to get between a woman and her doctor or to subsidize multi-national corporations that send jobs overseas. But the minute someone proposes helping the working poor and improving people’s quality of life, all of a sudden the Nazi’s are racing down Kingshighway. I have never heard priorities that upside down.”
Russ Carnahan told the 8th Ward Independent Democrats last night that his fundraising was closing in on $500,000. Through last quarter he has only raised $370,000 (including his $50,000 loan). So it sounds like he's already around $100,000 for this quarter. With still a month left, that'd be pretty good. Of course the proof will be in the filings on July 15.
The only other 3rd CD candidates there were Favazza and Karll. An interesting place for Karll to be campaigning, though I'm happy she was there.
Okay, so it's a celebrity I've never heard of...
From the Mohn press release:
* Rock star Andrew WK supports Mohn for Congress! I am delighted
to announce that rock star and MTV2 host Andrew WK has become the latest contributor to our campaign! During his tour last week, I met Andrew at the studios of 88.1 KDHX here in St. Louis and talked progressive politics with him. I was able to outfit him with a Mohn for Congress t-shirt (which he wore during his radio interview) and he was kind enough to make a sizeable contribution to our efforts! He urged me and all of my supporters to "never let down" and to press on with our message. Rock on, Andrew WK!
Mark Smith has opened an office at 1155 Francis Place, across from the Galleria. Richard Woolf has been hired as their first full-time staffer. Their yard signs are in and their colors are....red and white.
Amanda Good has left the Stoll campaign to go to work for Jason Klumb's campaign for Treasurer.
The Barry Campaign is looking for help. From her May e-update:
We have lost 2 key members of our staff. One young man is working
full-time for the Kerry Missouri campaign, and the other is now working
for the Missouri Democratic Party organization. If you have ever had a
desire to play a key role on a political campaign and you are willing to
spend a lot of your free time working very hard working on my campaign,
then call Campaign Manager Lori Becker at (314) 353-0000 and schedule a
meeting. We need someone who is highly motivated, a quick learner and
loves politics who will be responsible for helping us organize events.
The Business Journal is kind enough to publish my thoughts from time to time. This is a link to my current perception of the 3rd CD.
Press Release from the Jeff Smith for Congress campaign claims big endorsement win:
**************FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE******************
April 28th, 2004--- Despite opposition from the group’s three leading officers, the Jefferson Township Democratic Club endorsed educator and St. Louis native Jeff Smith for Congress from Missouri’s 3rd Congressional District. The township club, the biggest in the state of Missouri, canvasses Jefferson Township for its endorsed candidates and provides Smith’s grassroots campaign with even more boots on the ground.
“Yesterday the Jefferson Township Democratic club proved that grassroots support can overcome party machines and the status quo. My supporters are excited about my candidacy, not about my ‘name recognition,’ and they are willing to stand up for the best candidate in the race,” Smith said. “This is the kind of grass roots energy that is going to prevail at the polls on August 3rd.”
Smith’s supporters shared his enthusiasm. “Jeff Smith is the most exciting candidate I’ve seen in the 3rd District. He is the clear choice for progressive Democrats,” Anne Wilding of Webster Groves said after the meeting. “Jeff has the vision, intelligence, experience and principles to make a difference in Washington. His enthusiastic supporters made themselves heard at the Jefferson Township Democratic Club meeting last night,” Wilding added.
Smith noted that his supporters at the meeting responded to his innovative ideas and vision for the future, showing that a non-traditional candidate can win elections against establishment candidates.
“Tonight my supporters proved that a positive vision for the future, and a belief in democracy will trump the status quo mentality of machine politics every time. My supporters were not intimidated by the Club’s leadership and its tired arguments. My supporters are interested in electing the best representative for the 3rd District.”
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Joan Barry Leads Crowded Field of Candidates in Contributors in 3rd District Democratic Primary
St. Louis, Mo.— In the first financial reporting period of 2004, 3rd Congressional District Democratic candidate Joan Barry received a record-setting 1,668 individual contributions. The candidate nearest in number of individual contributions has 342. The campaign has raised $204,897 to date and has $131,127 cash on hand.
“I am extremely grateful for the grassroots support I have received. These contributors are also voters and volunteers,” said Barry. “People are hearing my message and showing their confidence in my ability to represent them. Contributions, large or small, mean a commitment, and that will make the difference. This huge volunteer base gives us the resources we need to win this race.”
“While a Congressional campaign can cost up to one million dollars, after the first financial quarter filings, it appears no candidate will reach that amount. Field organization and mobilizing volunteers becomes more crucial,” says David Chilenski of the Chilenski Strategy Group in St. Louis. The Barry campaign field operations began on March 27, 2004 with over 150 volunteers hitting the streets in south St. Louis County. The mass of volunteers was comprised of family, friends, nurses, and union supporters. Seven labor unions were represented that day.
Barry’s candidacy has also received more institutional endorsements than other candidates, including thirteen labor locals. St. Louis City, South County, and North County Labor Clubs are also actively supporting her candidacy.
First, a look again at the numbers. How much did they raise this quarter? I don’t count loans. I want to know how much support they received.
Steve Stoll - $135k
Russ Carnahan - $125k
Jeff Smith - $109k
Joan Barry - $74k
Mark Smith - $33k
Now, great to raise money, but how much money do they have on-hand?
Russ Carnahan - $202k
Jeff Smith - $181k
Steve Stoll - $161k
Joan Barry - $131k
Mark Smith - $102k
But some of them have loaned their campaigns money. Is it window-dressing or will they really spend it? Let's subtract the debt and see how things shake-out:
Steve Stoll - $161k
Jeff Smith - $159k
Russ Carnahan - $152k
Mark Smith - $102k
Joan Barry - $81k
Obviously there are three viable candidates - Stoll, Carnahan and J. Smith. With both Barry and M. Smith on the bubble, what are the scenarios where they win this race? For Barry, in a field of mostly men, her gender may help her in the voting booth. Add to this her pro-life stance and her biography - nursing, state representative - and their campaign could run a disciplined and targeted campaign, hit their demographic and win enough in a crowded field to emerge the victor. It's a long shot, but greater miracles have occured. For M. Smith, the scenario is harder to imagine. While I find his messge - working class needs opportunities - appealing, it gets lost in the fray, and with less money, I'm not sure it has a chance to resonate with the voters.
Carnahan has his best quarter so far, but it doesn't distinguish him from either Stoll or J. Smith. Stoll is looking good with continued strong fundraising. And of course J. Smith is the major surprise of this race, coming from nowhere to be competitive.
But, questions are circulating about J Smith's filings. They look like what have been termed "rookie mistakes," technical rather than ethical errs. What happened to the loan he made to himself? Last quarter $22,000 showed up as a loan. This quarter no loan is recorded on the summary page. (I assumed it is still outstanding in the numbers above.) Where are expenditures for his office? He shows in-kind donations for the office furniture, but no accounting of rent or utilities.
Finally, the wildcard - Jo Ann Karll. No filing from her due to her late entry into the race. Will she make a credible run? If so, she draws votes away from Stoll's base of Jefferson County, and maybe from Barry's women votes.
Mark Smith, candidate for the 3rd Congressional District, wrote and signed this pledge and asked the other candidate in the race to sign also. His press release says that one other has signed so far. Not sure who that is.
Mark of Integrity
Code of Campaign Ethics
Political campaigns should give a voice to the people and promote faith in the democratic process. I pledge to promote optimism, inclusion and voter participation by waging a vigorously contested, but fairly conducted campaign. Throughout this campaign I will promote respect for the voters, for truth and accountability, for my opponents, for campaign finance and election laws and for democracy.
I Pledge to:
1) Respect Voters.
· I will run an issue-oriented campaign to educate Missouri voters about me as a candidate and my stand on the issues.
· I will not appeal to bigotry or prejudice, especially appeals based on issues of race, gender, sexual orientation, religion and national origin.
· I will respect the time and privacy of Missouri voters by not engaging in “robot calls” – recorded telephone calls. I guarantee that calls made on my behalf will be made by a human, not a machine.
2) Respect Truth and Accountability.
· I will denounce and discourage the use of soft money or independent expenditures by outside groups on my behalf. This campaign should be conducted by the candidates, not by special interest groups.
· I will do my best to always be truthful and fair about myself and my opponents.
3) Respect my Opponents.
· I will not use, or permit the use of, false or misleading statements about my opponents, their personal lives, or their families.
· I will not engage in unfair personal attacks on my opponents.
4) Respect Election Laws.
· I will not accept individual contributions that exceed the $2,000 maximum for the primary until August 4, 2004. I will return any contributions over that amount.
· Voters have a right to know who is financing every candidate’s campaign. I will not use loans to hide the identity of donors to my campaign. I will repay any loan my campaign has incurred.
· I oppose making fundraising calls on taxpayers’ time.
5) Respect Democracy.
· I will promote optimism and political participation by running a straightforward, issue-based campaign that highlights issues important to the lives and futures of Missouri voters.
· I will uphold and defend the right of every registered Third District voter to full and equal participation in the electoral process.
I agree to abide by this Code of Campaign Ethics and to run my campaign in such a way that respects voters.
Date: April 5, 2004
In the 3rd Congressional District, Corey Mohn says that issues should matter most. So he links from his web-site to the other candidates' issue pages.
Of course some are more thorough than others.
Click here to take a look.
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