Nixon’s Role

Governor Jay Nixon has publicly stated his interest in winning back the House in 2010.  The rumors now vary about the extent to which Nixon is committed.  Some say that he (and other Democratic statewide officials, like Chris Koster) are aiming to raise $2 million for House candidates.  That kind of number would truly change the dynamic.  It would take away one of the Republicans chief advantages.  Others are skeptical that the governor will deliver.  They look for a token six-figure contribution like last time.

Eat Door of Car Democrat

A Democratic fundraiser emailed me that he would “eat the door of his car” if Jay Nixon raised so much as $1 million for the House.  I didn’t ask what he drives, but nevertheless the implication is clear that he doesn’t believe that Nixon will come through for the House in 2010.

Finally, Nixon is mentioned in one more respect.  There is the expectation in some Democratic quarters that he will do as Matt Blunt did: use the governor’s power of appointment and reservoir of jobs to lure Republican candidates from targeted races.

Two-Step to Majority

A peak ahead to 2012 actually should buoy long-term Democrats.  There are a number of seats (some mentioned as possible wins this cycle) which are Democratic districts held by Republicans.  As those Republicans are termed in 2012, the likelihood of Dems picking them up is greatly enhanced.  In that 2012 crop, Reps. Jerry Nolte, Bob Nance, and Will Kraus are all termed. 

So if Dems can pick up four or five seats in 2010, 2012 could be very interesting.