Someone new in Senate 7

Dave — 2008-02-14T18:44:50-04:00

It's a 3-way primary.

No to Derio

Dave — 2008-01-14T12:15:38-04:00

Less cryptic this time.

Demjamin

Dave — 2007-12-20T11:55:05-04:00

Hmmmm. Interesting rumor.

MOScout Daily Update Sample from a Month Ago

Dave — 2007-12-05T08:41:43-04:00

November 5, 2007

Eckersley � Week Two

At some point this fades, right? Apparently not yet though. The KC Star weighed in with a clever editorial in its Sunday paper arguing Matt Blunt�s team should be keeping emails and shouldn�t be trashing former employees.

Then of course there�s Tony Messenger. In his Sunday column in the Springfield News-Leader, he alleged that the staff of the governor�s office accessed, read, and distributed emails from Scott Eckersley�s personal email account. They previously said that the personal emails were being forwarded to his state account. The internet service provider says that the forwarding ceased on September 25. That�s an important distinction. And it means another round of stories.

I asked one top Republican what his advice would be to the governor. What�s the way out? After a deep sigh, here was the simple, but unappealing road out: settle with Eckersley as quickly as possible; change the email policy and start keeping emails. In other words, retreat on every front.

It�s an acknowledgement that while there are places where Blunt could be scoring points politically, Eckersley and emails are not those places. Take the medicine, put it behind you and start talking about things you want to talk about.

Until that happens, look forward to new revelations and more stories.

Harris� Big Labor Endorsement

Rep. Jeff Harris landed a big, fat juicy, labor endorsement on Friday. The Missouri council of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) picked him for AG. Then his campaign made an unfortunate decision to announce in the same press release some new legislative initiatives. �Harris also announced his plan to review the costs of privatizing state jobs and the status of worker protections under these contracts. Harris also said he would initiate legislation to set strict provisions for state contractors who violate labor laws.�

What was a nice announcement victory for Harris took on the air of a quid pro quo. Why not wait and do a legislative press conference next year?

Regardless it�s a big win for Harris. He�s competing with Sen. Chris Koster to be Labor�s Guy. Koster needs it more because in addition to money and ground troops, labor endorsements make him appear truly Democratic.

Increasing Teacher Salaries

So far, our view of the 2008 legislative agenda shows two big, good-looking issues for Republicans: tough on immigration and sweet on education. Looks beautiful right now for them: Law and Order plus Compassionate Conservative.

The website for the campaign to increase salaries is www.qualityschools.org. Our understanding is that the Republican leadership has embraced this movement, though some details are still undecided.

On the website, they seem to be anticipating opposition from urban interests which already pay teachers more than the new minimum. (In other words this initiative helps rural teachers, but not so much suburban and urban teachers where salaries are already higher.)

Kent King writes, �Even in districts where the pay schedule exceeds the state average, the �high tide� of competition will eventually drive salary increases. Everyone will benefit.�

Questions to watch: are the urban legislators opposed to this? Do they have enough votes to stop it? If so, what will they need to stand aside?

The Quest for Candidates

In 31-SD (Cass County) which Sen. Chris Koster is vacating to run for AG, the Democrats have lost two potential candidates. The first was Judge Joseph Dandurand who it appears will be appointed to an Appellate position; the second is Gary Mallory who has declined to run. The hunt is now on for new candidate.

In 17-SD (Clay County), Dems think they could grab this one from Republican incumbent Sen. LuAnn Ridgeway if they find the right candidates. Sources say they�re getting close. Her name is Sandra Aust. She hasn�t said Yes yet, but is leaning towards it. More later.

Rumor Central

Rep. Judy Baker who previously pondered running for state treasurer this cycle is now gazing again at challenging Congressman for Kenny Hulshof (9-CD). Although it�s a tough run, Baker is said to have the itch for higher office.

2008 Watch

18-RD (St. Charles; Dempsey to senate) � Often in hotly contested districts, the Parties try to avoid primaries so they can focus on the general. Here it looks like both sides will have a primary. On the Dem side Tim Swope (sheriff and former Republican) will face off against Mindy Primm. Primm will have the progressive, activist votes and Swope will do better with the labor organizations.

On the GOP side its young Matthew Seeds against more established Anne Zerr. Seeds will get the newer residents and Zerr will win the blue bloods and Old St. Charles votes.

20-RD (Callaway;Moore termed) � Dems appear content to put Don Salcedo up again. He�s a solid candidate. At this point we�d be inclined to favor the Republicans to retain this seat. Jeanie Riddle is the Republican candidate. She�s a former teacher and cheerleading coach who�s well-known in the community.

47-RD (Jackson) � Will Bob Johnson switch parties? The rumors have been out there but nothing has happen. Now comes another rumor. It is that he�s not looking at state rep, but rather city council instead. Our professional analysis is now: Who knows? It�s wait-and-see.

91-RD (St. Louis County; Fares termed) � There are a couple of geographic areas where Democratic aspirations seem to be centered. St. Louis County is one of them. Republicans have an okay candidate in Randy Jotte, a Webster Grover councilman. Dems are still flirting with a possible primary between Jeanne Kirkton (also a Webster Groves councilwoman) and Jim Trout who nearly won last cycle against the incumbent (and whose name is on the law suit that overturned no-limit fundraising).

158-RD (Cape Girardeau ; Cooper resigned) � I keep checking in with both sides on this district because with a scandal as prominent as Nathan Cooper�s immigration scheme, I wonder about the potential for a backlash that takes one party out and puts another in. Neither side sees that happening. Although Dems aren�t giving up, it�s a long shot. Republicans meanwhile are confident because the district is so solidly Republican.

Dave Drebes

dave@moscout.com

314-255-5210

Reports

Dave — 2007-10-29T12:23:26-04:00

Today, subscribers received a 4,000-word report surveying the 2008 state senate races, as well as a Daily Update covering Scott Eckersley, Chuck Graham, Chris Carter, Jane Cunningham, Judy Baker and others.

100 PACs

Dave — 2007-10-12T16:29:39-04:00

MOScout subscribers found out this week how Rex Sinquefield would be contributing A LOT over the next election cycle.

Missouri Scout is a private news service providing political intelligence and analysis. Subscriptions are relatively expensive, but the product is unique and the feedback has been unanimously and overwhelmingly positive.

Subscribers receive Daily Updates that include rumors, overlooked facts, and analysis about current events. These updates are almost entirely fresh dispatches with information that have yet to be reported anywhere else.

Subscribers also have access to proprietary databases to which the information in the Daily Updates is assimilated. Finally, subscribers receive longer analysis pieces on various subjects that warrant more attention.

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New Twist in AG Race?

Dave — 2007-10-04T08:06:33-04:00

From 10/01/07 MOScout Update: New rumor running around says someone we all thought would enter the AG race isn't going to after-all. Good news for Gibbons.