08

April 03, 2007

New Committees

As rumored, Michael Colona files a committee to run for 67th District (Daus - termed).

Jake Hummel, as rumored, files a committee for 108th District (Villa - termed).

Bob Burns, files a committee for 85th District (rematch against Lembke, unless he runs as rumored for senate, 1st District). Also filing a committee on the D side in the 85th, Vicki Lorenz Englund.

Finally, Cynthia Kramer and Jane Bogetto have filed committees for rematches with T. Scott Muchany in the 87th and Rick Stream in the 95th.

April 02, 2007

Potential Romney running mates

Responding to a question at a South Carolina campaign stop, Presidential candidate and former Governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney, offered up a few names he would consider for a potential running mate (via the AP).

Making the speculative list: South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford, South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia, and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

Though Missouri's political circles have been abuzz with speculation, Missouri Governor Matt Blunt was not among those mentioned.

To be fair, Romney was playing to the audience, as he himself said, "When I'm in South Carolina, I'm not going to fail to mention some of the ones that are closest."

With the primaries still 11 months away, calling any response premature is, of course, an understatement.

The Decoy Effect

Or: how I stopped worrying about my fellow front-runner, and learned to like the third.

It works on toasters, even on candidates. From The Washington Post.

March 21, 2007

Governor Decides Not to Run Again

in Louisiana.

March 15, 2007

1st District

Harry Kennedy is termed. The district is 50-50, so could be a battleground.

Dems look like they're united around Joan Barry as Sue Schoemehl told me recently that she won't seek the seat.

Meanwhile the GOP side will probably show Jim Lembke as a candidate. But he has some detractors within his party, so a primary is not out of the question there.

March 13, 2007

Brownback wins St. Louis County Republican Straw Poll

John Combest reports that Kansas Senator Sam Brownback has won the support of the County Republicans present at their Lincoln Day dinner on Saturday.

Combest said the outcome may surprise Governor Matt Blunt who has shown steady support for one of Brownback's rivals, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who came in third in the straw poll behind former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Missouri may not be as "locked down" as Blunt's team would like.

Brownback's surprise victory may have something to do with his presence at the event as speaker.

Brownback has run behind the main pack of McCain, Giuliani, Romney, in the Republican field. He came in fourth in a recent South Carolina straw poll. It was only the first in South Carolina, but the campaigns turned up the heat to gain any lead in the important southern state.

Brownback's main source of support comes from his position as the strong social conservative, something other candidates would like to usurp. In early Februrary the Romney campaign circulated a a two-fer email among leading right-to-life figures that attacked Brownback and defended Romney by saying Brownback picked up the pro-life mantle only after being elected.

Dr. Jack Willkie, a member of Brownback's campaign committee who was president of National Right to Life for ten years, responded saying the Senator has always been pro-life.

Despite the lack of a spotlight, National Journal commented that other campaigns should keep their eyes on Brownback not just for his conservatism, but his potential to appeal to more than the base. NJ said his announcement speech contained passages that one could expect from a Democrat,hitting on areas like health care, cancer research and reducing carbon dioxide emissions.

March 12, 2007

Names I'm Hearing

For 108 (Villa): Jacob Hummel, James Pree , Keli Montanaugh and a former firefighter to be named later.

For 63 (Wright-Jones): Tishaura Jones and Damon Jones, son of Robin.

For 67 (Daus): Mike Colona.

February 28, 2007

Probably not so simple, Mike

Mike Chance says Dems vulnerable if only they can find a GOP candidate for the 64th.

February 23, 2007

2008 Senate Races

From campaign committees, we're looking at three primaries so far. Two GOP, One Dem.

In 7, Jane Cunningham and Neal St. Onge will battle for Loudon's seat.

In 13, Tim Green will have to deal with Tom George.

In 33, Purgason will face Randy Angst.

February 21, 2007

Smith to head SDCC

Jeff Smith will lead the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee.

February 16, 2007

Calloway To Run for 71

Don Calloway says he's sending in his papers to start a committee today. Haywood is termed in 08.

February 05, 2007

Blunt in 08

During my visit to Jefferson City last week, I found a remarkably strong bipartisan following to the scenario that Governor Matt Blunt might not run for re-election.

Support for this theory came from: 1. His poll numbers are so bad, yet he's not taking any bold or energetic action to lift them. 2. He has connections to make a graceful exit. 3. There's no political motive for not announcing his re-election intentions, so he must really be undecided.

In the Governor's office itself, these rumors are laughable. They actually laugh about it. They're running in 08. And they make two other points: 1. They claim that their internal polling has them running about 8 points above the widely-cited SurveyUSA polls. 2. They think the talk will die down when people see their April fundraising numbers which will not show a governor sitting on his hands, but one obviously preparing for his re-election.

Rod Jetton, Peter Kinder and Sarah Steelman all are poised to run for governor should Blunt decline. It would be a brawl.

February 02, 2007

House Dems look to 2008

Jake Zimmerman is the front runner to head the DHCC next cycle.

There are only three names in the pool right now and it'll likely be some combination or team. The other names mentioned are Margaret Donnelly and Rachel Storch. All three from St. Louis!

But both Donnelly and Storch have been mentioned as potential AG candidates which would be impossible to juggle with this responsibility.

There’s only one knock against Zimmerman: he’s not battle-tested. He ran unopposed and some folks think the experience of a tough campaign is helpful for the job. He will definitely be part of the team though with Donnelly or Storch, and may even head it up.

Clint Zweifel, meanwhile, gets good reviews for his effort last cycle – as does Storch who helped him. But he’s going to focus on some legislative action. He’s taking a lead in fights to stymie the GOP efforts of MOHELA and the Social Security tax cut.

January 12, 2007

The Line on Guv races

From Washington Post. MO's race #5.

January 08, 2007

Blunt in Boston

In a move likely to add fuel to the speculation about Blunt's plans for the future, the Governor is spending the day in Boston visiting Gov. Mitt Romney at the presidential-hopeful's day-long, milllion-dollar fundraiser.

Poised on the top floor of Boston's convention center, Romney's fundapalooza brought together friends and supporters from around the nation in an effort, "to form a bond with each other, and chat with the governor." Romney's team hopes to pull in $1 million from around the country, the first step in an ambitious drive to raise $50 million by June.

Some of the current speculation surrounding Gov. Blunt's future (driven mostly by his non-committal comments regarding re-election) has Blunt as a possible V.P. nominee in a Romney Presidential run.

Post-Dispatch columnist Bill McClellan lays out how Blunt could skip second-chair 2008 and go right for the center ring in 2012. Governors have had a great deal of success in rising to the land's highest office, but how does the speculation jive with Blunt's consistent–and unshakeable–low polling numbers.

McClellan is dead-on in that any potential future for the Governor will likely hinge on his handling of the Medicaid transition. President Bush made his mark in education reform, which he brought to the national level in the form of No Child Left Behind, which has received mixed-marks from educators (The NCLB's fifth anniversary was Sunday, January 8).

November 25, 2006

5th State Senate playsheet

If you've watching the mad crush of humanity that is the post-Thanksgiving shopping spree you're likely thinking, "There's something better I could be doing with my time." Even you on-line shoppers aren't spared.

Well, here at the Arch City Chronicle we've wanted to offer something different for readers to mull over as they much on leftover turkey sandwiches. Call it, "Fantasy State Senate Campaign".

With State Senator Maida Coleman term-limited out in 2008 (early birds have nothing on political prognosticators), speculation as to who is and isn't running for her 5th State Senate seat is heating up. We presented our reasoning in a recent issue, now we want to offer up a couple spreadsheets to let readers play out different scenarios for the coming campaign.

We set up two; one for a three-way race and one for a four-way race.

The turnout for each precinct can be adjusted ("Turnout") as can each candidate's performance in each precinct ("% Johnson" in this case). The spreadsheet is set up so that it will automatically adjust the vote totals, both for the precinct and the candidates' take of the district.

Try you hand and let us know your results.

Note: the number of registered voters, turnout and votes cast were taken from the 2004 election. The 2004 election was the last year there was a similar set of elections; state senate, St. Louis circuit attorney, state-wide and national. The same set as in 2008.

August 16, 2006

Steelman won't challenge Blunt in 08

KWMU.

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