Jumble
For those taking note of the presidential polls already, just a quick reminder that only the broadest impressions can be taken from them at this point.
A Time Magazine poll released Friday has Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) defeating Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) 48% to 42%.
A Rasmussen poll released Thursday has former North Carolina Senator John Edwards (D) defeating McCain 47% to 38%.
Finally, Edwards is shown in the Time poll as trailing Clinton (38%) and Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) (30%) in the polls with 26% in a three-way primary. Edwards has been stuck in the third slot for some time, but has been moved up the ladder some following his wife's medical announcement.
It's true these are, of course, different firms with different sample groups, methods, etc.
The day-to-day can be fun to follow, and it is good data for establishing trends in the long run, but outside of rough estimates of who's ahead and who's behind it's too noisy to make much in the way of a prediction.
Even the aggregate doesn't clear things up that much. It would seem the GOP front-runners, former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani and McCain, are leading the Democratic front runners Clinton and Obama. That said, a few match-ups have them running even or show a Democratic lead.
For those of you who love it, some up-to-the-minute poll numbers: check out TPM Cafe's Election Central or Real Clear Politic's latest polls.
For some detailed info on polling, trends and daily polls, check out the pros over at Pollster.com.
What does St. Louis think?
Posted by Clark on Sat., Mar 31, 2007 at 6:48 AMI love how John Edwards unabashedly labels poverty as a priority moral issue for our nation (given that many politicians limit moral issues in politics to abortion and gay marriage). I get a sense that he speaks from his core values, rather than from focus group data, and that's very important to me.
I also believe Barack Obama speaks from his core values. He is incredibly charismatic as the rally in Forest Park last November proved.
As much as I'd like to see a woman become president, Hillary Clinton seems to share her husband's love of focus-group-speak, but without his incredible ability to make it sound like it's coming from his heart. The Clinton administration was admirable for its diversity, and it certainly seems like the good old days now. But I remain somewhat cold to the Clinton's because of Bill's willingness to do what was popular when objective data showed that it would increase poverty levels in children (the 1996 "welfare deform" - as Molly Ivins called it). And that increase in poverty has come to pass. Poverty has risen in Missouri in the past two years, in fact, despite other signs of economic recovery.
Posted by JMO on Sat., Mar 31, 2007 at 1:24 PMWe love you, Jeanette!
Posted by Clark on Sat., Mar 31, 2007 at 4:34 PM
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