The 1st Congressional District will be eliminated and combined with the 2nd and 3rd Congressional District's according to insiders.

Expect this to happen and look at the Congressional power rankings.

Saying that it will be the first district that goes is just semantics, because it is just a number. I would look to see St. Francois CO to go tot he eighth, maybe Jeff Co to be split with 8th and 9th. While the most of STL County become the 2nd, along with parts of St. Charles as well. The first will be the entire city of St. Louis along with some of the urban ring communities reaching up to the Ferguson-Berkeley-Jennings borders.

St.Charles County Republicans have been howling for years about having their own congressional district. With three hundred thousand or so residents, the GOP in St.Charles County is tired of having a west county resident representing them. I personally believe that the city of st.louis will be jammed up into one district if at all possible. Republicans would like nothing better than to see the Democratic party tearing itself apart. Unfortunately, this is what happens when you can't recruit decent legislative candidates, you find yourself in huge minorities and playing defense endlessly.

While Jay Nixon will probobly win the governor's manion in two years, we can at least hope that the map won't be horriffic. I'd imagine that with a Democratic governor and GOP legislature, the issue will end up in court. Nixon's sway over the new map will be the only bone he'll have to throw to progressives. The uninspiring and charasmaticly challenged AG doesn't excite anyone in the activist community.

Even if a district outside of St. Louis is cut, the resulting expansion of all districts will cause headaches. For the most part, neither the 1st nor 3rd District have any abutting Dem-leaning areas to gain, except from each other.

Seeing how few Dems can be gained, the question then becomes whether the 1st and 3rd are Dem enough to divide up West County and/or eastern St. Charles County. The 1st is solidly Dem, and therefore the least at risk, if expanding west. While the 3rd needs to expand more cautiously, it too should ideally be okay with more GOP voters, due to the incumbancy factor.

considering how the Clay District first came about, coalition of Black Dems & GOP legislators, it's not far fetched to think that Clay Jr. would end up with most of the City minus Russ's address

Looks like the Missouri delegation needs to support giving DC a congressional seat if we are to keep our 9 seats.

"If 2006 population estimates were used, the size of the House of Representatives was increased to 437 seats, and the District of Columbia was given one seat, then Missouri would keep the seat that would otherwise have lost with the size of the House capped at 435. This study of the 2006 estimates placed Missouri in line for seat no. 436."

SouthCityProgressive; If the St Charles people were that upset at having a west St. Louis countian representing them I think they might have voted a little more in favor of Sherman Parker than the 82-18 margin.

There is no way the 1st district would be broken up. The race card would be played out to no end. One way I see it is if by this time Ike Skelton is ready to retire it would serve the Democrats to prevent the loss of a Democrat in the 3rd district. Im just wondering how much longer Ike is going to be in house. If it goes like this then the state would be 5-3 republican, if they close out the 3rd distrcit and Ike leaves office, a republican will more than likely take Ike's seat, then the state would be 6-2 republican.

Blake.

As someone who knows the ground better than I pointed out, for the reasons you point out regarding Rep. Skelton, it would seem to point towards a change in the 3rd. The Carnahan name alone carries substantial weight.

The majority of state seats in Skelton's district are Republican already, the majority of seats in the 3rd are Democrat but by declining margins.

Jefferson County is a battleground, one that Carnahan–and Gephardt before him–protect. Eliminate them, you remove a major hurdle to challenging the seats in the 3rd that are increasingly influenced by the growing number of more conservative voters moving in from South St. Louis County, St. Genevieve and Cape. They are not from the traditional union-Democrat background that makes up much of the Jefferson County voting base.

Republicans would have an easier time in Skelton's district. Even if he were successful in having a successor elected, they would likely be a popular, moderate figure who will pose little threat to local Republicans. They would certainly prefer a Republican in the 7th, but they can wait out Skelton and his presence is no threat to their position in the state legislature; Carnahan is another matter.

The first is safely Democratic, why potentially move Democratic voters into Rep. Akin's safe Republican seat. Far better to move potentially Republican voters under a Republican umbrella and potentially shift some state seats.