Polling report

As I noted below, some polls are showing marked decrease between Democrats and Republicans on the generic ballot. Yet as in all things statistical, there is a counter-case.

In the Pew poll, the Democrats' margin dropped from 11% (Oct 23rd) to 4% (Nov 5). In the Gallup poll, it fell from 13% (Oct 23rd) to 7% (Nov 5th).

However, two polls still show substantial obstacles for the Republican GOTV effort.

A Fox News poll released today shows a 13% margin (49% to 36%) for Democrats, an increase of 2 points from October 26th (49% to 38%).

A CNN poll has Democrats up by 20% (58% to 38%). Thats an increase of 9 points from a poll on October 30th (53% to 42%).

Is it a wash? We'll only know on Tuesday for sure. The national attitude doesn't cinch anything for McCaskill's campaign, but it sure might give them a bit of head-room.

For Talent's campaign, the closing gap can only help. Republican enthusiasm had been waning, but if things are beginning to swing their way a bit, it might give them the edge in the GOTV effort. Just because you boost your voter contacts, doesn't mean they will be energized enough to vote. The promise of a squeaker might motivate some voters who were thinking of sitting it out.