Crunch time

All I got for a response was a slightly inward smile and a quick glance aside when I asked a McCaskill staffer if they knew something the rest of us didn't. We were all waiting for Senator Barak Obama (D-Il) and a who's-who of Missouri politicians to take the stage for the Democratic rally in the World's Fair Pavilion in Forest Park and I thought I would try and find out what's was behind a positive impression I had been getting lately. It had changed from positive but couched to one of concealed enthusiasm. It wasn't just the staff.

Their candidate has looked confident and happy in recent appearances; a change in attitude from the way she sometime appeared in her last campaign.

McCaskill lost her race for the Governor's mansion in a 2004 race that was said to be tight going into the last week, but ended up a three-point loss for the State Auditor. That tough race began with a difficult, and devisive, primary. No one looked happy and confidence was thin.

But enough about then, what happens on Tuesday? Naturally, no one knows for sure, but it's fun to look at the numbers we do have.

A Pew poll shows mixed results for the purported Democratic wave. Looking at the generic ballot (GOP vs. Dems) Republicans have cut the Democrats' lead among likely voters from 13 points in early October (53% to 40%) to 4 points in the first days of November (47% to 43%). At the same time, the number of Republicans who think their party will not fare well on Tuesday has increased 8 points (21% to 29%).

Gallup today released a poll today also showing Republicans regaining ground on the generic ballot, from a 13 point deficit two weeks ago to 7 points now (51% to 44%). Remember, however, that 7 point advantage is the same the Republicans had in the days leading up to election day in 1994.

Gallup's poll also showed that McCaskill has increased her lead among likely voters from 3% to 4% (48/45 Oct 1., 49/45 November 5).

Similarly, Pollster.com's running average of the last 5 polls shows a 2 point advantage among for McCaskill (48% to 46%), that doesn't include the Gallup poll released Sunday. Their 10-poll average, on the other hand, still shows a 47/47 tie.

So in a period in which the Republicans are closing the gap nationally, as naturally happens in the final days, McCaskill hasn't lost any ground. It may even be that she has picked up a touch of positive momentum, but that could be written off as statistical noise. Different polls, different techniques; a point or two is too little to take to the bank.

Yet all of the polls released in the last 6 days has her ahead, if only a touch. Throw in the so-called incumbent rule (a phenomenon accepted by pollsters and politicos that between the last poll of the election and election day, the majority of the undecided voters break for the challenger) and there might be a good reason why McCaskill's campaign is smiling to themselves.