The following analysis came by email, from a knowledgable source:
1. The big one you left out is a possible worry for the Dems. Paul Quinn is running for Wes Shoemeyer's old seat and faces a spirited challenge from the Republican, Kathryne Harper. It's a decent Dem district but by no means solid. In an open seat race, this one could go either way.
2. You left out a few other several semi-longshots in GOP districts where Dems are running solid races and have at least a chance, especially if there proves to be a Democratic wave. All of these have at least a shot, most probably have a better chance than Lucas Kunce or James Owen, if I may politely disagree with your emailers.
In rough order of quality of campaign / likeliness of winning:
Danny Gregory vs. Doug Ervin in the 35th. (Danny is running a spirited race and has some good young activists working for him).
Rebecca McLanahan vs. Nancy Summers in the 2nd. (District includes a university and has decent DPI numbers, Rebecca is both a nurse and a teacher, seems like a good fit and is working.)
Mark Schaeperkoetter vs. Tom Loehner in the 112th. (Schaeperkoetter has a well-known family name in the district and is working extremely hard.)
Luke Scavuzzo vs. Rex Rector in the 124th. (I don't know much about this one but I hear good things about Scavuzzo, that he's really working it.)
Richard Oswald vs. Mike Thomson in the 4th. (Also has a university in the district, really could be Dem territory, Oswald is a farmer who looks like the Marlboro Man and is working hard on the ground.)
UPDATE: One more, from another well-placed source, the 5th (Jim Guest against Mike Walthemath).
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