House Race Analysis - part VI

105th District: Ed Groom-R v. Michael Frame*-D
Frame narrowly beat Groom in a special election last February. The victory in a low turnout special election doesn’t ensure a similar result for Frame, but the District leans Democratic and will stay that way.

135th District: Charles Denison*-R v. Nancy Hagan-D
An internal poll by the Greene County Democrats in late October showed Hagan 3 points behind Denison and gaining ground. However, Republicans have won all of the last three races in the District by over 30% percent. There will be a much smaller margin this year, but a similar result as Denison holds.

137th District: Dan Scott-R v. Charlie Norr-D
Scott and Norr battle for Republican Mark Wright’s seat in Northern Springfield. Scott is an architect and stresses his hometown roots. Norr was firefighter and is a veteran of Navy. Minimum wage could turn out to be a substantial issue in this, one of the poorest districts in the state. Norr wins on the Northside.

163rd District: Kevin Mitchell-R v. Thomas Todd-D
The 163rd District, which dips into the Bootheel in Southern Missouri, was a historically Democratic district before being taken over by Otto Bean, who died in July. The 163rd now seems poised to swing back to the Dems. In 2002, Bean won with only 4,206 votes. With no presidential election this year, it will probably only take 4,500 votes to win. Considering that 4,021 Democrats voted in the contested August primary, Todd should be able to beat out Mitchell in this contest.