State House Race Analysis - part IV

30th District: Jason Brown*-R v. Jared Welch-D
Usually, having spent over a decade in the Air National Guard would distinguish a candidate. Yet, Jared Welch’s service is likely to be overshadowed by that of incumbent Jason Brown. Brown is currently on leave from the Army after being shot in the chest while on duty in Iraq. Deployed in April for a yearlong tour, Brown was serving his House term while abroad. If Welch was planning on doing any negative campaigning, that's off the table. Given the circumstances, Brown will hold this seat.

38th District: Ryan Silvey*-R v. Dennis Spears-D
The 38th was a Democratic seat before Silvey won a special election following Representative Dan Bishop’s death. Thus far, Spears has raised less than $5,000, while Silvey has raised over $45,000. While infighting amongst the Republicans could make this one closer, Silvey will remain on top.

47th District: Jeff Grisamore-R v. Tom Haley-D
This district seat opened up as Republican Robert Thane Johnson left it to run for senate. Haley ran for the seat in 2002 and lost by 7.6% (875 votes). While Haley might be helped by the name recognition, it won’t be enough as Grisamore takes the open seat.

94th District: Rick Stream-R v. Jane Bogetto*-D
This Kirkwood district was held by Republican Richard Byrd from 2000 until his death in 2005. Bogetto took over the seat in the subsequent special election last November. She now faces long time Kirkwood School Board Member Rick Stream. Repubs would love to grab this one back, but when crunch time comes, Bogetto will win the suburban battle.