House race analysis - part III
33rd District: Jerry Nolte*-R v. Terry Stone-D
Jerry Nolte won by 3% in 2004, taking over a seat that leans slightly Democratic. This race will be another close one. The current climate gives Stone a boost as he ousts Nolte.
85th District: Jim Lembke*-R v. Bob Burns-D
Jim Lembke won this Lemay seat by 1.5% in 2004. GOP sources think Lembke’s hard working campaign will prevail. Dems say the same about Burns. The numbers favor the Democrats in this one, and Bob Burns, a Union beer truck driver, will return the seat to Democratic control.
90th District: Sean King-R v. Sam Komo-D
The 90th District, which is southwest of the St. Louis area, is an open seat as Democrat Rick Johnson ran for Jefferson County Prosecutor rather than re-election. Privately some Dems are underwhelmed by Komo’s campaign, but Komo has the support of Johnson and will keep the seat in the D column.
132nd District: Don Ruzicka-R v. Charles Dake*-D
Another winner of a special election, Dake took over the republican seat in 2006. Claims of Republican push polls have surfaced in this race, allegedly being run by Wilkerson and Associates, the same company named for similar calls in the 32nd District. The District has strong numbers for the Republicans and could be their best chance to take a seat from the Dems. Dake, a conservative Democrat, opposes Amendment 2 and lists the NRA as one of his endorsements. In the end, Dake withstands the charge and keeps the seat.
139th District: Shane Schoeller-R v. Jamie Schoolcraft-D
Schoeller and SchoolCraft vie for this North Springfield left open as Republican Brad Roark runs for county commissioner. Though Schoolcraft boasts an “A” rating from the NRA(higher than Schoeller), Republicans have very strong numbers in the District and Schoeller will pull out the win.
161st District: Gary Branum-R v. Steve Hodges-D
The race for the 161st District is about as close as it comes to a tossup. The numbers are just about even in the contest for the seat of term-limited Lanie Black. As two strong candidates battle it out, Branum wins by a hair.
I am admittedly a biased source here, but I'll beg to differ with your prediction on the 139th based on recent experience. Just last week, I spent a couple of days down in Springfield ringing doorbells for some of the (unusually strong) Democratic candidates down there. So I can personally confirm that the Schoolcraft campaign has it together in a big way. Jamie is a spectacular candidate: solid, down-to-earth, right on the issues for his district, and hard-working as all get-out. And I do not think I have seen a more well-run grassroots effort among any of the state rep candidates in the state.
In short, if anyone can overcome those strong GOP numbers you mention, I think Jamie's the guy. And when he wins, he will immediately draw favorable comparisons to a young fellow from Springfield who, about 20 years ago, beat a Republican incumbent against the odds in a similarly tough district. That young fellow was named Bob Holden.
While I had hoped to get down there, I unfortunately haven't had the pleasure of canvassing in the 161st, so I won't venture to disagree with you with quite so much confidence. Nevertheless, I'll note that Steve Hodges is one of the most delightful people I have met on the campaign trail this year. From what I hear, he is held in similarly high regard among folks in his district, where he is a longtime community and business leader. If I were a gamblin' man, I'd be highly disinclined to lay odds against a standup guy like Steve.
Posted by Jake Zimmerman on Mon., Oct 30, 2006 at 9:32 PMThere are a couple of items that you forgot to mention in the 85th Dist race. Jim Lembke has been able to earn the endorsements of the major labor organizations, this is a major advantace to this incumbent.
AFL - CIO (COPE)
Associated Industries of Missouri
Carpenters District Council of St. Louis
Labors Local #110
National Federation of Independent Business (N.F.I.B.)
South County Labor Group
St. Louis Building Trades Council
St. Louis Police Officers Association, Fraternal Order of Police - Local 68
Also Jim is supporting Proposition B (the minimum wage increase) that is on the ballot.
Posted by C. Brown on Tue., Oct 31, 2006 at 11:14 PM
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