ACC State House Races Analysis - Part I

Do the Democrats have any chance of taking control of the State House?

The new issue - find it on the streets Wednesday - has a front-page article by Brian Werner looking at House races across the state, the only state-wide analysis we're aware of. Here is a preview; I'll be posting specific House and Senate races today and tomorrow.

The background: There are only 19 GOP seats that are not being challenged by Democratic opponents, nearly half as many uncontested seats as in 2004, while 41 Democrats are running without a Republican opponent.

Of the 163 seats in the House, Republicans hold 95 and the Democrats, 66. The 13th and 163rd District seats are currently vacant, both most recently held by the GOP. ACC interviewed members of both parties, analyzed previous election results and campaign finance data, including the flow of funds from state party committees.

From that information we’ve categorized 21 seats that could change hands – 17 of which were last held by a Republican. Of the remaining 142 seats, 80 are likely to go for the GOP and 62 likely for the Democrats. In order to take the House, Democrats would have to win 20 of these 21 races. Notwithstanding a tidal wave of anti-GOP sentiment, such a feat is unlikely.