Poll Vaulting

SurveyUSA released a poll yesterday showing State Auditor Claire McCaskill with a 9-point lead over Sen. Jim Talent, 51% to 42% (497 likely voters, +/- 4 point margin).

The same poll also shows overwhelming support for Amendment 2, the stem cell initiative, 57% to 27% with 16% undecided.

While the election is still several weeks away, and polls are imperfect, McCaskill's lead represents a 9-point gain over an identical poll by SurveyUSA conducted 4 weeks ago where McCaskill was up by 1 point, 48% to 47%.

Republicans may hope that they still have time to try and redirect voters their way, but most of McCaskill's gain was among independent voters. Talent led among independents by 12 points a month ago, McCaskill now leads by 13, a 25-point swing.

Given the importance of independents in a state as narrowly divided as Missouri, that margin could be a difficult challenge for Talent's campaign to overcome. The results from SurveyUSA's post-debate polls might not ease their headache.

After the Channel 5 debate on Wednesday McCaskill was seen as the "winner" 54% to 32%. More importantly, in the Favorable/Unfavorable McCaskill came out ahead 58/25 to Talent's 30/41. Similarly, following the Meet the Press debate on Sunday, McCaskill's Favorable/Unfavorable was 44/32 while Talent's was 28/44.

These debates may actually be hurting Talent. I suppose that the numbers could also suggest McCaskill began somewhat unpopular or unknown, but considering she lost the gubernatorial race to Matt Blunt two years ago by three points when President Bush carried the state by seven, it's unlikely she's either been forgotten or picked up an unfavorable image.

All polling aside, what this game will really come down to is turnout, and that is something the Republicans have earned respect for thanks to their vaunted 72 Hour Program (though some folks have their doubts about its efficacy beyond the PR). To that end, there was a training session for approximately 250 Republican volunteers in Audrain County in North Central Missouri.

Recent numbers (which they don't like to talk about) may cause a bit of stress, but they have faith in their program.