Guessing and Counting
Here is an spreadsheet for the 28 wards.
By changing turnout numbers by ward and estimating vote %, it's a pundit's play-sheet for guessing the potential Shrewsbury-Reed match-up next spring.
I think my numbers are in the ballpark. I looked at the turnout #s in Shrewsbury-Krewson (Aug 2002) and normal March elections. I'm between the two, though closer to normal March elections. I also elevated turnout numbers where there may be contested aldermanic races (2, 4, 6, 8, 14, 22, 24, 26, 28).
A million things could change; more or less candidates would be the most obvious. Who knows how fundraising will go, how endorsements will fall and who's campaign will catch momentum?
Finally there are the vote splits themselves. Will Shrewsbury really win 90% of his home ward? Will Reed sew up the northside and win the central corridor?
Have fun.
Very politic--three votes apart!
And, that is probably about right. That (Shrewsbury and Reed) could be a very close race.
Posted by Mary Beth on Thu., Oct 12, 2006 at 3:09 PMShrewsbury will win easily because Darleen Green will help him in the Black community.
Posted by Robert Barnes on Thu., Oct 12, 2006 at 6:19 PMGreat spreadsheet! I have a couple of questions:
1) Where are the number of registered voters coming from -- the August 06 election or an earlier election? I ask because I'm wondering if we've been gaining in the last couple of years with GOTV drives.
2) Bringing down the totals shows a 14.4% overall turnout for the city --- is that about right? What strikes me is the 10% estimated for my ward (25th) and 28% in the 16th --- but higher voter turnout for a ward where an aldermanic election is being held makes sense. Having some of these wards contested might bring out more voters than if the current alderman goes unchallenged.
One thing is certain, this will be interesting to watch.
Posted by Urban Review on Thu., Oct 12, 2006 at 9:57 PMI don't have facts but a statement. I think whomever Mr. Slay, 23rd Ward Committeeman, goes with will get a little above 50% of the vote in 23rd Ward, and whomever the 28th Ward Democratic Organization goes with will get around 60% of that wards votes. And I believe that the three highest voting wards in this election will be 16, 23, and 28 in that order.
Posted by Worried Citizen on Fri., Oct 13, 2006 at 1:40 PM
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