As of today, both Jim Shrewsbury and Lewis Reed have people waiting in line to file. Shrewsbury's person is in front of Reed's. (Filing doesn't begin until Nov 27.)
Does anyone know what difference it makes to have your name first or second on the ballot?
Wouldn't it only matter to those voters who didn't know either candidate?
How many voters in this race could that be?
It actually makes a big difference in a highly contested race. Keep in mind that roughly 5% of voters have no clue for whom they will be voting until they walk in to the polling place, which is why order, poll workers, poll signs and sample ballots are all very important.
Posted by travis reems on Fri., Oct 6, 2006 at 8:25 AMTravis is right: there is probably an effect, though "big difference" might be overstating it.
The race for president of the board of aldermen -- like the races for aldermen -- is more accurately described as a "low information" race rather than as a "highly contested" one.
Relatively few City voters spend much time learning things about candidates for president of the board or for alderman.
Ballot cues (like party ID, apparent ethnicity, apparent gender, name recognition, and ballot position) and ballot design figure most strongly in low information races. However, of the various ballot cues, ballot position is generally considered to be the weakest one.
Posted by publiceye on Fri., Oct 6, 2006 at 8:59 AMI agree with 'publiceye' (did I just type that?). The order on the ballot makes a bigger difference when you've got more than say 3 or 4 names. That 4th or 5th person on the ballot has to work really hard unless they are really well known.
If this race is limited to Shrewsbury and Reed order won't matter much at all.
Posted by Urban Review on Fri., Oct 6, 2006 at 10:35 AMI've always believed that the importance of things like ballot order, poll workers, etc. is greater the farther you get down the ballot.
Someone showing up to vote in an August primary, for example, may have come to the polls because they want to vote for a particular candidate in a high profile race like US Senate or Governor. They may not have given any thought to whom they will support for Secretary of State or Public Administrator.
President of the Board is the only city-wide race we will be voting on next Spring. I think anyone who bothers to show up to vote will probably be there because they want to vote for either Reed or Shrewsbury already. The effect of ballot position will probably be minimal.
At the same time, having someone in line to file early does send a signal to volunteers, activists, potential contributors, and other political junkies that a candiadte is serious about a race and will not let his or her opponents "get in front of them." So in a strange way ballot position is meaningful to both the most informed and least informed voters.
Posted by Tim on Fri., Oct 6, 2006 at 11:06 AMThen following on Tim's point, it would seem both candidates are sending a clear message that this will be a hard fought race, with them both having people in line almost 2 months before the filing date.
Posted by political dufus on Fri., Oct 6, 2006 at 1:09 PMWell, the pay is good. Not to mention the benefits.
Posted by TRouble on Fri., Oct 6, 2006 at 6:34 PMI will be very interested to see how much cash Ald. Reed can generate in a relatively short timeframe.
Jim did a little TV last time around against Lyda. That certainly didn't hurt his name recognition. Still, he's smart to want to be #1 on the ballot. March '06 will probably be a very low-turnout election, unless there's some really hot ballot issue coming I don't know about.
Posted by Joe Frank on Sat., Oct 7, 2006 at 11:38 AMThe people coming out to vote in April will be loyalists, abstentees and people that vote in EVERY election regardless of what is on the ballot.
In some wards, there might be greater turnout than a typical year. With the rash of recalls, I would expect competition for some weaker seats of the BOA and for those Aldermen that aren't viewed in the best light.
Posted by travis reems on Sun., Oct 8, 2006 at 9:40 AMRight a Wrong. Submit any tips or story ideas by using our anonymous email form. Confidentiality is guaranteed.