I've checked the precinct returns against race data I have for St. Louis precincts. A couple things stand out:
1. Smith got 590 votes in precincts north of Delmar (more than Jones got). Gambaro only got 52 votes north of Delmar, so that accounts for about 20% of Smith's margin over Gambaro.
2. I identified 12 racially mixed swing precincts south of Delmar (between 30% and 70%African-American), located in the 8th, 10th, 15th, 17th, and 28th wards. Smith won all but one of these precincts, usually by wide margins. Smith took 1804 votes from these precincts, compared to 406 for Gambaro and 352 for El-Amin. Roughly half of his margin of victory came from those precincts. I'm guessing that Smith's campaign doorknocked in those precincts more than once. I wonder of the Gambaro and El-Amin campaigns did the same.
3. I identified another 12 swing precincts where the pro-choice and pro-life vote appeared evenly split in the 2004 Democratic primary for Gephardt's seat (where Smith came in second to Russ Carnahan). These predominantly white precincts are in the 10th, 14th, 23rd, and 24th wards. Smith and Gambaro went head-to-head in these precincts, and Smith carried all but two of them. Smith took 1527 votes in those precincts, compared to 1159 for Gambaro and 94 for El-Amin.
I think Smith's margin of victory over El-Amin and Gambaro can be found largely in those three areas.

I wonder if there is any way to estimate vote turnout by ethnicity/race in these mixed race areas to verify whether the performance of the candidates was related to turnout or to voters voting counter to their race.

Gee...I wonder if I can kiss Jeff Smith's butt too???

Where can I find precinct results?

I live in the 28th, Smith was at my door twice, El-Amin and Boykins each once. Johnson left a flyer, no sign of Gambaro.

CK,

Since when does talking about the outcome of an election translate into kissing butt? I am guessing you walk around with your hands over your ears and yell "La la la la la..." a lot, huh. Sometimes things don't go your way, seeing gloating when it is not present doesn't help much.

Caped, you're not being very nice. I say let CK kiss Jeff's butt if he wants. Sheesh..

Jeff Smith whipped some butt. Whatever analysis anyone comes up with will lead to one main end, Jeff Smith whipped some butt everywhere he roamed and didn't roam. CK kiss some Jeff Smith butt and then kiss some more butt if you can before he runs for office against you. CK know for certain that if Jeff Smith ran against you, he would make you kiss some butt. After January CK, you will be kissing Senator Jeff Smith's butt.

I guess the 500+ Campaign Signs, Big Pictures on the Video Truck, Bosnian Billboards, Racist Faxes and Press Releases, Racist Prank Automated Phone Calls, and America's Most Wanted Postings for the "Known Caucasian" didn't work! Jeff Smith survived all that BS, and in the end the candidate that spearheaded all this BS was right on the money.

Jeff Smith will be one well "Known Caucasian"!

Has anyone else noticed the growing number of Bathtub Jeffs on the west side of the city?

Bubba says: Shame on CK for player hatin.' As one of my favorite sports broadcasters for ESPN Stuart Scott, who is African American, says, "Don't be a player hater, hate the play, not the player." CK you should subscribe to that peaceful philosophy. Bottom Line: I concur with Caped J, Ellen, and especially Real Deal--Jeff wiped the floor with many butts.

In regard to my two esteemed UMSL colleagues posts: Prof. Kimball, I concur. Our strategy was to ensure Jeff ran strong all over the district, even in those areas where he was considered weakest. Your statistical breakdown is evident of one thing: Jeff outworked every other candidate that much more in all campaign areas (fundraising, canvassing, message, healthy policy exchanges/discussions with voters, house parties, you name it. Will, you pose a good question. Without hard data, I surmise that both of your inquiries occurred heavily, Jeff actually boosted turnout (like in 2004) more than where there were heavily contested races in the 2006 primary--namely the North side. As to the latter part of your inquiry--I think we were all surprised as to how many voters peeled off their chosen candidate and voted counter to their race and how they lead many others to believe how they were actually going to vote. I saw the same exact thing happen in the '04 congressional race, but this time it was more pervasive.

In regard to my two esteemed UMSL colleagues: Prof. Kimball, I concur. Our strategy was to ensure Jeff ran strong all over the district, even in those areas where he was considered weakest. Your statistical breakdown is evident of one thing: Jeff outworked every other candidate that much more in all campaign areas (fundraising, canvassing, message, healthy policy exchanges/discussions with voters, house parties, you name it. Will, you pose a good question. Without hard data, I surmise that both of your inquiries occurred heavily, Jeff actually boosted turnout (like in 2004) more than where there were heavily contested races in the 2006 primary--namely the North side. As to the latter part of your inquiry--I think we were all surprised as to how many voters peeled off their chosen candidate and voted counter to their race and how they lead many others to believe how they were actually going to vote. I saw the same exact thing happen in the '04 congressional race, but this time it was more pervasive.

Howard,

How dare you make fun of Jeff? Hard word, grassroots, blah, blah, blah. We love Jeff, he is more popular than 'Cats,' we voted for him many times. One Question, if I hurt my back whilst excavating my hole for my 'bath tub Jeff' do I get free medical coverage? ( I think that the term is actually 'Jeff on the halfshell.')

No injuries are possible during the installation or maintenance of a Bathtub Jeff. Quite the opposite, miraculous healings are reported to all who draw near these yard shrines, which, because of the glow, also serve as a nifty crime deterrent in the evenings.

The 'Cats' scene should not have been edited out of the Mr. Smith movie. But that's my personal opinion based on the fact that my brother's next door neighbor's cousin (DuBourg '79) was a part of the costumes crew.