Same turn-out. More water.

Now--it's 88 degrees, 60% chance of showers and scattered T-Storms.

Same turn-out. Less water.

Come (hot) hell or (rainy) high water, this primary should see only modest turnout, just like every other in an off-year election.

However, the more Derio goes negative, the more seniors will end up staying home, something PE should remember from attacking Downs.

Same turn-out. No water.

Same turnout? Damn Kenny has a chance after all....

"Damn Kenny has a chance after all"

LOL. Actually, you could probably fill in any of the candidates' names and be right.

There's a South Park reference in here somewhere.

Same temp, down to 30% chance of showers and scattered T-Storms. Dave doesn't know what he started.

Oops, posted too soon, even my wonder-boy pick has now gone negative too. Shame on Jeff for finally becoming just another politician. It's upsetting enough that this former donor of Jeff's now questions even voting Tuesday.

Brian--swift boats. If you don't fight back, you lose. Four negative mailers in a row--to one negative from Jeff. Jeff did stick to issues even when going negative.

i had the same sinking feeling as brian last night when i saw 2 negative jeff mailings in my box about gambaro. or as i said to my wife - "what is this sh*t?" i live in the 16th but i haven't been receiving the gambaro mailings - maybe they think that is his safe territory?

we're still voting for jeff. unfortunately it feels like i'm voting for the lesser of evils again, and i'm pretty tired of that.

I'm not sure what Derio's universe is--his mailings seem to be targeted mailings not from the state Democratic voter file, but individual voter files and Missouri Right to Life.

I know people don't like it, but compare Clinton to Kerry. There are a lot better examples, but everyone is familiar with those two. Clinton hit back right away. John Kerry assumed everyone could tell the charges were crap. Who won? Who lost?

It is frustrating and all I can say is that given his past campaigns and his polling position, Derio was going to go negative and Jeff prepared for it. And Derio did, so the mailings went out. That's four to two though and Jeff's stayed on issues. It could be more given the past history of campaigns with Derio's team so we'll see what hits Saturday/Monday. Jeff's a gay deadbeat dad philanderer would be what I'd expect.

Jeff's tried to hit about the same mailing universe, but like Diatriber's case, they aren't using the same voter files obviously so it's not perfect.

If you ignore attacks and pretend to be above them, you only reward those who start the attack ads.

AP - i understand where you are coming from and don't see a good alternative. the problem is if you don't get the gambaro mailings then you don't see the context of why jeff is sending his. it just looks like jeff has gone negative.

I understand what you are saying--the challenge is that when you use different lists, there's no way to isolate just the people who receive it.

I guess if I really did 'hack' into their computers that wouldn't be a problem (snort)

And Jeff always wants to avoid this because of exactly the thread above. And part of the problem is that active supporters are like you complaining about this--they vote hell or high water and so the impact of the Derio mailers doesn't seem that big of a deal, but they can depress turnout amongst leaners especially if the claims just hang out there.

The best thing you can do is that if any of your friends are in a similar position, explain to them how this developed and keep positive.

Larry, I get the Kerry analogy. However, Kerry failed to throw back water, while Jeff Smith has decided foolishly to fight fire with fire.

What Jeff should have done is directly addressed Derio's attacks (charter school test scores, carpetbagger, etc.), but instead I saw new attacks (social security, police residency, DINO, etc.). Sure, these are vulnerable issues for Gambaro, but then stress where Jeff stands, without attacking Derio.

An example of how you positively counter an attack is ironically what Jeff already had done previously. After Yaphett's poll labelled Jeff the "known Caucasian," I was happy to see Jeff's lit that stressed "One St. Louis." There are clearly ways to address an opponent's attacks yet remain positive.

An easy rule to remember is never show your opponent's face on your own lit, and you'll keep to the issues. Sadly, in light of where this campaign turned, I've now become apathetic about who wins Tuesday.

==There are clearly ways to address an opponent's attacks yet remain positive.

They are generally called losing. I'm not trying to be flip, but if someone attacks you and you sit there and discuss the issue further, you make it a bigger issue and the framing of the issue stays in the original context which is obviously drawn to put it in the hardest angle for the person being attacked.

It's impossible to educate voters about test scores in the middle of a campaign. It's hard enough to get them to understand charter schools are public schools. Do you want me to write up a piece on why 1 and 2 years of data are not significant? As someone who does teach people about stats, that isn't going to work for the short period of time one has to reach voters.

The people who post here are not typical voters. They are hyper aware people in elections compared to many, if not most voters who might briefly meet a candidate and read a little bit of literature.

Negative campaigning hits them and it depresses turnout if it is unanswered--it seldom switches voters who are decided. Simply smiling and offering up the monthly test scores just confuses the issue to the average voter who throws up their hands and don't have a reason to vote.

The response that works is to hit back and give them a reason to not want the original attacker to win. In this case, you might note, Jeff went at issues, not Derio's past problems and in the second case if its as I saw early ideas, it is a comparison piece which is negative, but only because it points out that Derio has positions that aren't popular.

Then you get back to positively campaigning. In this case, I can guarantee Derio is going to hit again Saturday or Monday or if the Post Office is incompetent, I can hope for Tuesday. Other than if the last Derio piece has to be responded to because it, oh, I don't know, says Jeff is gay, wants to force the Catholic Church to marry gay people and he's paying a woman to pretend to be his girlfriend while he engages in gay bestiality pedophilia with young male farm animals and is a deadbeat dad, Jeff will end positively. But not responding and let someone attack you without response just leaves the message in their hands. You have to take control of the message and ignoring it doesn't do that.

The literature has become pretty clear on the issue. Derio might have started the negative messages close enough to the election to hurt himself with backlash, but the best strategy when faced with negative attacks is to attack back. It's great to say candidates should be above it or something like that, but all that results in is that people who start with attack ads get a permanent advantage. We've seen candidates who don't respond to negative campaigning over and over again lose--Dukakis, Bill Bradley in 2000 against Gore, and Kerry. They are all three great people who I think were better than their opponents. That they are better people is fine, but they also aren't President and even if they had responded with negative attacks I'd have thought far more of them than their opponents.

Jeff didn't release these pieces until Derio was in for three (I think the first negative Jeff piece hit before the fourth Derio negative piece). You always hope the other guy won't go that negative, but you can't control the opposition. Jeff stayed with issues. That is substantively different than wild claims about the FEC fiasco that aren't true or about Jeff's residency and such. Pointing out the other guy is bad on the issues isn't nearly as bad as accusing him of character flaws in my book.

I live on the Hill and received an Amber piece today.

Amber may be makig her push a little late. But because I want Derio to win, I hope she keeps pushig. Just for discussion, Would Jeff have been better off somehow helping Amber draw votes from Yaphette?

This race was and remains exciting. I just hope when it is over we can focus our energy and resources towards getting something done. Something like restoring benefits, resolving the school issue, jobs and a living wage for the working poor.