I'm leaning Smith, Gambaro, El-Amin, Boykins, Jones. I think Smith is going to get more north side support than people expect.

I still can't believe El-Amin hasn't sent us a piece of literature or had someone knock on our door. I think she's totally written off most of the south side. Sure, it's not a place of strength, but to totally write it off except for a few billboards seems foolish. Of course, it's pretty much too late now.

My money's on Smith. I think he's got the strongest supporters and that he'll have the best and most reliable turnout system of all the candidates.

While El-Amin will run strong, I have seen more activity from the Boykins campaign recently and surprisingly more traction for Smith in areas that should be solid for El-Amin. El-Amin's recent missteps- press release calling Smith a "known caucasian", along with her controversial appearance with Sharpton will limit any crossover appeal she has, but they also call into question her political savvy.

Gambaro's also losing steam before election day. If you look in his strongholds, there are way too many Jeff SMith signs for him to be comfortable. His negative attacks also seemed to have either backfired or been ineffective.

My order- Smith, El-Amin, Gambaro/Boykins, Jones

I'm with predictor on this.

Bubba says: I wholly concur with Chris, predictor, and Mr. Reems. There are very very few, if any, certainties in politics, one thing I am certain of is the loyal strength of Jeff's supporters and the proven commodity of Jeff's ironclad GOTV operation. Travis, I have been meaning to ask, given your last name, any relation to Harry Reems?

Bubba says: I wholly concur with Chris, predictor, and Mr. Reems. There are very very few, if any, certainties in politics, one thing I am certain of is the loyal strength of Jeff's supporters and the proven commodity of Jeff's ironclad GOTV operation. Travis, I have been meaning to ask, given your last name, any relation to Harry Reems?

Bubba says: I wholly concur with Chris, predictor, and Mr. Reems. There are very very few, if any, certainties in politics, one thing I am certain of is the loyal strength of Jeff's supporters and the proven commodity of Jeff's ironclad GOTV operation. Travis, I have been meaning to ask, given your last name, any relation to Harry Reems?

I only hit post once...

My reasoning for picking El Amin to win appears in today's print edition of ACC (in somewhat abbreviated form, due to the print edition's space limitations), and in excruciating detail in tomorrow's Oracle. Two things could prove me wrong:

1. Positive response of African American voters to Smith's devotion of campaign resources (including lots of Jeff himself) to the north side.

2. If Smith supporters who don't vote often vote on Tuesday.

I disagree with the observation that Gambaro is losing steam. His backers are dedicated; there just aren't enough of them district-wide for Gambaro to win. He will win some south side wards, but that won't offset his last-place finish throughout the northern half of the district.

How Smith does vs. Gambaro is of no import; all that matters is the size of the margin by which he beats El-Amin in the south compared to the margin by which she beats him in the north, with the integrated central corridor possibly deciding the election.

I'll release mine on BSL later. Because of my agreement with the Vital Voice I couldn't write for Dave this time. I do think Oracle has the right questions he's asking and his analysis above is exactly right--only two people can win this race--El-Amin or Smith. Where I'd differ is that I think Boykins will run stronger than expected bringing down El-Amin's take, maybe on Jeff's northside effort---I'll have to see what Oracle says--and I think Jeff's GOTV will be stronger than expected. I also think El-Amin might not do as well from some black Christians as people might think.

I think both Archpundit and Oracle raise some good points.

But I disagree with Oracle on one point. How Smith does v. Gambaro is of import- it'll determine Smith's margin of victory over El-Amin. Of course, Derio will have his core, super-conservative, Republican supporters come out who would never vote for Jeff Smith and whose votes will not affect the outcome of this race.

But what about the others in the 8th, 15th, 16th, 23rd, and 24th wards, etc. who are deciding between Smith and Gambaro? I believe a lot of them will ultimately go with Smith and that will increase his margin over El-Amin on the South Side.

I also think that Oracle is underestimating how polarizing El-Amin is. Not only has she polarized white voters, but she's polarized many middle-class black voters who are outside the political establishment, but who happen to vote. Boykins and Smith are more palatable to those voters.

I wouldn't underestimate the number of votes that Boykins will receive. She has a fairly well-known name and she's not as offensive to many voters as El-amin is.

What Oracle fails to acknowledge is that Yaphett's voters are a similar, young demographic to Jeff's. Thus, the lower the turnout, the higher share of votes both Gambaro and Boykins will each take, and the closer the overall race becomes.

Yet even if low turnout, I still think Jeff barely wins (while easily winning if high turnout). That's because even if low turnout, Jeff not only wins by his carrying the central and near-south areas of the 4th but by the added insurance of ironically the same way Russ won two years ago, coming in a strong 3rd or better in every precinct.

I see Boykins gaining and Gambaro slipping away. Gambaro has a SMALL but dedicated base but his opposition to stem cell research has been damaging to his core support. He's stuck with the same votes that he started this campaign with while Smith is surging. Boykins has finally started to show up and with her name recognition and El Amin's slips in this campaign anything is possible. El Amin has worked pretty hard but really alienated a lot of voters. I see Smith, Boykins, El Amin, Gambaro, Jones. It will be fun to see how this turns out.

Kenny Jones always struck me as a very intelligent man and savvy pol. I was interested in how he would campaign in this race. However, I've been disappointed in his lack of enthusiasm.

Why do you think he threw his hat in here? Just to play spoiler to El-Amin? I know he's anti-Slay at this point, but he also seems opposed to the Nasheed/El-Amin faction. Are he and Tyus on good terms, or is he a Bartlett supporter? Where does he go from here?

Derio by 1%. Derio takes a significant majority of the South with some central and little north. Jeff takes command of the central with little north and some south. Amber and Yaphette divide the North side with little central or south. Jones is a non-factor.

Subtract 1% from Jeff because the post endorsed him.
This is a close one.

I've wondered if Kenny Jones entered the race to get his name back out there for a future run, perhaps for Alderman again.

A complete version of my call on this contest is now posted on my blog. It includes references to new developments, including Suburban Journals' endorsement of Gambaro and today's dueling attack pieces of Smith and Gambaro.

Did Smith go negative on El Amin in a northside mailing, or just Gambaro on south side mailing? Did Smith send Gambaro attack piece north?

Really disappointed in Smith and Gambaro. I had expected higher standards from Smith.

In previous 3rd congressional race, was the source of the illegal Russ attack piece ever uncovered?

The listing of the source of Gambaro attack piece was awfully fine print. Elderly folks won't be able to read it. At least Gambaro made it clear that he was attacking Smith. When i first got the piece I had to look up another piece of smith literature to see the Olive adddress.

Unhappy, I don't know the answers to your question, but criticizing your opponent on issues isn't a bad thing. The mailers I've received for the most part are on the issues.

Is anything misleading in the Jeff Smith mailer?

Gambaro's attack on the school is valid though I think ineffective (lies, damn lies, and statistics). They found the few statistics that proved their point.

The FEC didn't even investigate until almost 18 months after the complaint and not surprisingly seemed to be having a hard time locating the people who Dave and I were able to identify.

It's a bit hard to see how one can be disappointed in Jeff--he was hit three times before hitting back and has negative push calls against him being made.

I'm not sure why you had to look up the address--given if you had received the actual piece of mail the paid for bit was by the addressed to area.