Favazza received 19% in the 2004 3rd Congressional District primary in St. Louis City. I didn't even need a crystal ball to figure that out, just Google.

The only way Derio Gambaro will receive more than 15% of the vote is if there is HEAVY crossover from the Republican party, which wouldn't be too surprising as there are no other races of significance for the Republicans this primary cycle.

diatriber, did google tell you what percent Favazza (or anybody else) got in the part of the 3rd CD that is also in the 4th senate district? That's what my numbers were (because it doesn't matter how poorly or well any candidate ran outside the boundaries of the relevant district).

google told me that the pro-life candidate is going to get a chunk but not a very big one. google figures that whatever favazza lost in jeffco will look pretty similar to what gambaro won't pull up north.

i do remember your early analysis on the 4th way back after the nov. 04 election. i think 19-21% is pretty generous. heck in my very catholic part of the 16th ward, there are many more smith than gambaro signs. of course smith does have an army of young folks.

after you told me kerry would win, i'm still suspect of all crystal balls!