According to Lizz Brown this is a push poll, it is safe to say that El-Amin will face the same wrath that Jeff did. Especially since this poll actually has some evidence associating it with one of the campaigns, unlike the one she assumed was done by Smith. It is not like she will have a double standard or anything is it?

What more need be said about the divisive political tactics that the Representative's campaign, supporters, and family members will employ to win at all costs?

Mr. Reems I agree. Anytime I see the name Lizz Brown, any iota of credibility goes down the drain. The first commentors call sign should also indicate the level of that take's credibility too.

Speaking of polls, I noticed in this week's ACC (print edition) a small poll on the 2nd page, but no source is quoted. The poll had Jeff Smith with an overwhelming lead over all the other candidates (no surprise there). I'm currious what the source of this data is, although I believe it to be correct.

What did surprise me, though, was Rep. El-Amin's not-so-close runner-up status. I would have figured by all the noise coming from the Boykins camp that that Rep. would be in second place. As Shakespear put it in MacBeth, "...sound and fury; signifying nothing."

Apparently irony is not as acceptable in the blogoshpere as it is on Comedy Central's fake news (or I just suck at using it)
If you are not aware of Lizz's recent swiftboating of Jeff, check http://bsl.archpundit.com/ and scroll down a bit. Or you could listen to it from the web, it is quite hilarious. Anyone that is paying attention to the race will think that Lizz comes off more like a Rush Limbaugh (distorting or simply making up facts to divide and anger listeners) than an Al Franken (humorously pointing out lies while delivering a progressive message).

Bubba: What is wrong with my call sign?

Travis: I am going to assume that the ACC's "poll" on page 2 was nothing more than their current prediction on the race.

Caped:

You might be right. It appeared to be broken down by percent. But who would predict Rep. El-Amin coming in 2nd? Obviously Mr. Gambaro won't be 2nd because of his limited appeal, just as Rep. El-Amin. I really would assume Rep. Boykins coming in as a not-so-close 2nd to Jeff Smith. Frankly, it wouldn't surprise me if Kenny Jones beat out Rep. El-Amin or Mr. Gambaro.

So, to break it down, as if you cared, here is my prediction:

1. Senator - Jeff Smith
2. 1st Runner-up - Holly "Amber" Boykins
3. 2nd Runner-up - Kenny Jones
4. Ms. Congeniality - Yaphett El-Amin
5. Mr. Congeniality - Derio Gambaro

I would be interested in seeing predictions of voter turnout. What is the estimated number of voters per ward based upon previous contested August primary races?

Travis, why wouldn't we care? It is always interesting to find out what someone's political thoughts are ... unless you are Nia because she already knows. (and you don't have Boykins winning, this would upset her)

The last time this seat was up in August 2002, turnout was about 22,000 voters. I would guess turnout will be a little bit higher this time because of the number of candidates all campaigning heavily. Citywide turnout in August 2004 was about 60,000 voters and I would guess a little under half of them (+/- 30,000 voters) were in the 4th District. I would guess turnout will be lower than that since the 3rd Congressional race, the contested primary for Governor, and the gay marriasge amendment all helped bring voters to the polls. So my prediction for turnout is about 25,000 voters. I'm not sure how it will break out by ward. . .but I bet Oracle does!

That was fast! Thanks

I probably have the info somewhere, Tim. I'd say "Oracle knows," but I wouldn't want to plagiarize you know who.

In any event, I think the 2002 4th district vote is a better guideline, and is probably too high. That election featured a hot primary between Jim Shrewsbury and Lyda Krewson for Aldermanic Prez and a racially charged primary for Collector of Revenue. The 4th District contest itself was also hot, a black/white, pro-choice/pro-life fight between Dougherty and O L Shelton that everyone expected to be closer than it ended up being. (Predominantly white NARAL endorsed African American Shelton, but didn't deliver the votes.) I'm sensing lots of apathy out there this time, and I'm expecting turnout lower than 2002, probably less than 20K.

Also, I agree with the Jackass that the ACC "Early Line" is a prediction, not a poll. Wait, this is the ACC blog isn't it? Dave ought to be able to clarify for us. Dave?

Thanks for the invitation Oracle.
Yes the Early Line is my best guess at time of publication. There will be revisions with future editions.

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