Sen. Jim Talent is sending out an email opposing immigration reform plans that would provide "amnesty" to illegal aliens.
• I am committed to supporting a comprehensive border security plan that does NOT include amnesty.Immigration is shaping up to be a major issue this election year, one that could be troublesome for some Republicans. The enthusiasm the GOP hoped to instill in their base by taking a tough line on immigration may backfire by sparking a reaction among those who favor immigration policies that would create paths to legalization. Add to that the near-unanimous opposition in the Hispanic community that the GOP had previously begun to make inroads with.• I've proposed a bipartisan Border Security bill with Senators Domenici (R-NM) and Dorgan (D-ND) to secure our borders and protect us from terrorist attacks, undocumented immigration and the importation of illegal drugs, like methamphetamine.
• My opponent is supporting proposals that amount to amnesty.
In Missouri, immigration doesn't top the list for all voters, but it could trim Talent's margins in areas seen as easy pickups such as St. Charles thanks to growing Hispanic influence and a sympathy for illegal immigrants who came to work. Religious groups working with the poor are also concerned because of potential effects of stricter laws.
Talent is currently sitting at 48% (SurveyUSA via Arch Pundit) so even small changes could make a difference. Add to that a general public opinion that while illegal immigration is getting out of hand, stronger border enforcement and opening paths to legalization (though not necessarily naturalization) are the better solutions.
Democrats might be wise to tread carefully as well. Talent wrote a letter in support of Cecilia Velazquez, prominent St. Louisan and publisher of Red Latina, who was recently deported after a multi-year legal battle (Reps. William Lacy Clay, Jr. and Russ Carnahan also sent letters of support).
Update: Gallup poll from April 10-13, shows that 30% of Republicans do view immigration as their number one issue. In overall ranking, this is the first time since 1993 immigration has reached the top five of public concerns in the Gallup ranking (it's number 2 behind Iraq). Will it last as an issue? 25% of respondents mention immigration in April but only 6% in March.
Thanks to biggestmodem for the note on the Gallup poll. Post updated as well.
Missouri's hispanic population, according to 2000 census figures, is 1.2%. Also: Gallup has new numbers out which show that, of all non-economic issues, immigration is the single most important issue to Republican base voters.
I'm afraid you have this backwards. Talent's stance is the one that is one most closely aligned with Missourians. Claire would do well to stay away from this issue. There's a reason she hasn't been making a lot of noise on it.
Posted by biggestmodem on Fri., Apr 21, 2006 at 12:55 AMJimmy has already lost significant biz interests on stem cells, now he'll lose them more with his immigration crack down.
And Claire shouldn't worry. For while such uber-conservatives turn out to vote, such "base" always votes Republican anyway. In other words, it doesn't take much Talent to win the votes of bigots.
Posted by Brian on Fri., Apr 21, 2006 at 9:00 AMOne way McCaskill could put Talent on his heels is to say that Talent wants to make being here illegally a felony [which is unclear from the above], making it impossible for people who have worked here for years and started families ever to come back to this country.
Some claim that anything less than the making illegal immigrants felons is amnesty. I do wonder where Talent stands on that question.
Posted by butler miller on Fri., Apr 21, 2006 at 9:06 AMAnd immigration IS an economic issue. Claire will sway moderates and independents by campaiging on the jobs that immigration and bio-technical research offer our state, despite Missouri's socially conservative leanings.
Posted by Brian on Fri., Apr 21, 2006 at 9:07 AMThe poll number cites in the post above are interesting, if ambiguous. For example, the USA Today/Gallop poll reports that 63% of respondents state that government policy should be that illegal aliens should remain if they meet certain requirements. On the other hand, the tougher penalty approach ranks high as an effective approach to reduce illegal immigration and 81% of respondents think illegal immigration is "out of control."
I don't think the partisan implications of the immigration issue is clear cut, outside of hard positions on both sides that have probably already identified with a party. Given that Missouri does not have a significant Hispanic population, the electoral impact of Hispanic Democratic voting might not play any role in our state elections, as opposed to Florida, California, Texas, etc.
Illegal immigration can create internal division in both parties. The wealthy of both parties are immensely enriched by cheap labor, and both hope they can win their votes by legalizing them.
And the working classes of both parties fear competing for their jobs against those ready to take far less than a living wage.
Posted by baal_labs on Sat., Apr 22, 2006 at 9:26 PMIllegals will cost the American society dear. We subsidize the law breakers that hire them for cheap labor. How dare they. You people who are not paying attention to this need to take your heads out of the sand. You are losing your country to Mexico. you are subsidizing this backward third world corrupt country who has nothing to offer us exept for cheap unskilled labor. They need to go home. No legalization and the people that hire them should be fined $10000.00 for the first offense. Second offense $25,000.00 up to including 1-5 years in prison. Local law enforcement should have simultaneous enforcemnt authority. That way results would occur. Finally children born in the US by illegals should be illegals also. I am ready for the fight. The Senates bill will fail. The Republicans that voted for that nonsense should be voted out of office. The President is now irrelevent to own Party.
Posted by steve on Sat., May 27, 2006 at 5:24 PMRight a Wrong. Submit any tips or story ideas by using our anonymous email form. Confidentiality is guaranteed.