Ditto for his quick comments at the Clifton Heights Neighborhood Association. Came out strong, reminded everyone that he was our state rep awhile back and why he is running.

As soon as the meeting was over people flocked to him. The guys very charasmatic. He looks you in the eye like your the only one in the room and listens.

He appears to be gearing up for a pretty interesting race. He'll also be at the 24th ward Dem's mtg tonight at the IBEW training hall 7pm. Tonights the night we take nominations for a new committeeman to replace Waterhouse.

Missing from the list is that Gambaro was a strong supporter of ending the City residency requirement for police. But since such tidbit is hardly a strong selling point, this detail of Derio's resume will never likely be mentioned at any neighborhood meeting, whether Tower Grover Heights, or even Tilles Park, which actually meets at SLPOA.

Of course, Gambaro's conservative, Church-influenced stances on social issues are likely glossed over or left out of his speeches too.

Dario will make this race more interesting. he is charismatic, and he also has Shonaugh Clemens, a definate plus. But this is still jeff Smith's race.

Don't think that Jeff Smith's victory is a fait accompli. Much can change in the next few months. Derio is an excellent candidate, he has won before, and he has the benefit of Shonagh Clements' expertise. Don't underestimate them. Victory goes to he or she who turns out the voters on election day.

Even if Jeff Smith's victory is not a fait accompli, I'd be surprised if Derio finished in the top 2, or top 3 for that matter. Both Smith and El-Amin have proven abilities at grass-roots campaigning and turning out voters and to be frank, both excite voters a heck of a lot more than Derio. His Republican-lite, socially conservative views really won't fly in most of the district.

"Victory goes to he or she who turns out the voters on election day." With this logic and after seeing what his campaign did in 2004, is there anyone out there who thinks that Jeff Smith is not the front runner?

So why didn't he win, Jason? I've been involved in politics too long to assume that anyone can coast to victory.

"[Gambaro's] Republican-lite, socially conservative views really won't fly in most of the district."

In a multi-candidate race, being a niche candidate (i.e., one whose views set her/him apart from all the others) can be an advantage in a plurality-wins contest. On the other hand, in the 4th district, this niche is only about 20-25% of the vote. That's enough to be formidible, but not win. Plus, Derio's appeal to that niche is compromised by leaders of those wards backing other candidates. Ideology will trump endorsements, but the endorsements will erode the niche enough to keep it from prevailing.

"So why didn't [Jeff Smith] win, Jason? I've been involved in politics too long to assume that anyone can coast to victory."

I'm not Jason, but I'll respond. Jeff didn't win because a congressional district was too big an area to pull off a successful grassroots campaign. The fact is, Jeff did beat Carnahan in the areas where he was able to conduct his grassroots campaign. The Carnahan brand name was strong enough to get Russ a strong second or third (out of 10) everywhere in the district. The difference was Jefferson and St. Genevieve Counties, which didn't receive the same Jeff Smith grassroots treatment as St Louis City and County, and it was there that Russ' 2nd place finish (behind Stoll) beat Jeff by more than enough votes to offset Jeff's margin over Carnahan in St. Louis city and county.

The 4th District is a small enough area for a Jeff Smith grassroots operation to work.

Nevertheless, I agree that no one can just coast to victory, and I think all four major candidates know that and will act accordingly. It should be a great race. Yes, Jeff Smith is still the frontrunner, but things can change. It's Jeff's job to see that they don't.