Isn't there a second member, the commiteewoman?

At the very least, it means that there will be a sample ballot by Democrats of the 15th Ward Committee distributed at the polls with Boykins name on it. There's also the Democrats of the 15th Ward Committee, the independent organization with members that vote on endorsements and put energy behind their decisions. Between the two, the independents are far more active in the community and their endorsement would be the real prize. But Boykins will pick up some votes from the committeeman's sample ballot and he'll likely also do a mailing.

Let's test the 15th Ward against its own real numbers.

In the 2004 congressional primary, I recall that the 15th Ward organization endorsed Steve Stoll. It certainly did not endorse Jeff Smith. Here are the 2004 results in the 15th Ward:

Jeff Smith 950, 44.27%
Russ Carnahan 469, 21.85%
Mariano Favazza 178, 8.29%
Joan Barry 177, 8.25%
Steve Stoll 166, 7.74%
Mark Smith 145, 6.76%
JoAnn Karll 33, 1.54%
3 others 28, 1.3%

The 15th Ward endorsement got Stoll 7.74%, about double the percentage in wards where Stoll didn't have the ward endorsement, but still only good enough for 5th among 10 candidates (and 3rd among three major pro-life candidates, even though Stoll was also endorsed by Missouri Right to Life).

Boykins' race and gender will make her candidacy an easier sell in this progressive, integrated ward, but that's exactly the demographic where Jeff Smith does best. Look for the 15th Ward to be strong for Jeff in spite of the endorsement.

Correction to a bad cut and paste job on my part. The two ward organizations in 15 do not have the same name. The independent ward organization is named 15th Ward Democrats. In addition to filing reports with MEC, it is registered as a nonprofit and as a fictitious name with SOS.

Looks like the 15th will have dual sample ballots by separate organizations, if any. But progressives, such as those living in the 15th, don't vote on a top-down basis.

15th Ward Democrats makes endorsements determined by the democratic vote of its membership. I'm not sure how the Democrats of the 15th Ward determines its endorsement. Flip of the coin? Size of contribution? Does anyone have insight into that process or is it opaque at best?

Aren't a lot of young progressive folks active in that alternative 15th Ward Democrats group? Who did THEY endorse in the 3rd CD primary? I don't recall; maybe Russ?

Russ, who is friendly with the alderwoman who started the alternative group, got their endorsement in the 3rd CD primary, but Jeff beat him better than 2-1 there. I would be surprised if Jeff didn't get their endorsement this time. Greg Thomas's support won't make Boykins competitive in the 15th.

Yes, please keep the names straight! As president of the 15th Ward Democrats (The New Democrats), I can attest that we hate having our endorsements confused with those of the other group because they are often radically different.

The Democrats of the 15th Ward is the older organization. There is currently no Committeewoman because she moved to South County.

The 15th Ward Democrats had a close vote last time around and ended up endorsing Russ although many members personally supported Jeff. We do not make any endorsements until we have a candidates forum and a vote by our membership.

In the 15th Ward, there are always two sets of sample ballots at the primary, since the two groups have never completely agreed on their endorsements, so this will be nothing new.

In almost every ward, the endorsement of the committeepeople doesn't mena crap. The committeepeople used to be very influential back in the day. Only certain committeepeople really still influence the way their ward goes. Greg Thomas is NOT one of those people. Slay the Elder IS one of those people. Even Murphy's endorsement doesn't carry much weight these days.

Not only does Murphy's endorsement not carry much weight generally, or even in his ward, it carries virtually no weight in the small portion of his ward that is in the 4th District. I'll go ahead and predict right now, if Smith, Boykins, ElAmin and Gambaro are all on the ballot on election day, Murphy's choice Boykins will finish no better than 3rd in the 12th Ward, with less than the 7.74% of the vote that the 15th Ward regulars "delivered" for Steve Stoll in 2004. An that's even without a competing Democratic ward organization like that in the 15th.