TV time ... for an aldermantic seat? Has this ever happened before?

Charter can actually play different ads in different zip codes. And you can actually get decent pricing on some spots. I saw the ad. It was poorly produced and made bauer look more like a hack than a professional politician.

Prediction: Waterhouse wins handily.

I saw his ad on broadcast TV Friday or Saturday. I was so stunned I failed to notice which channel; it was not UPN 46.

Looked like all the other Mickey Mouse garbage he puts together.

I saw the ad on a Charter Cable channel (don't recall which one).

No, it's not a first, not even for Bauer. I recall Bauer running ads on city cable in prior campaigns for either that seat or his former state rep seat.

The unintended beneficiary of the ads could be Republican Sharon Barnes, because the ads affect voters two ways simultaneously: They back away from Waterhouse because they believe the ads (which I believe are actually true, though remote in time), but as stated by others, the ads reinforce their negative opinion of Bauer. Barnes comes off as a kinder, gentler alternative, and it's not as though cutting the Democrat majority on the board from 27-1 to 26-2 will really have any policy repercussions. Working against Barnes is how overwhelmingly Democrat the ward is, and this is a bad time to have the GOP label in an urban area.

I'd say the winner will win with just a plurality, and any of the three candidates could still win it.

Bauer bought TV time in the primary that he challenged Darlene Green for comptroller.

Anyone have a prediction on the outcome in tomorrow's special election?

My guess is that it will be a squeaker for Waterhouse- I'm biased because I work for him but, I really think the Bauer negative campaigning has hurt us and helped sharon barnes. I think Barnes will come out and do well in the future though, as what I'm not sure but she has staged a really good campaign.

I, too, am biased, Josh, but I hope it will be a victory for Sharon Barnes. Party aside, she is the best candidate. She knows how to speak for herself and doesn't sue constituents.

This is definitely an instance where I wish the City had instant run-off voting. Then, those voting against Bauer wouldn't have to fear he may still win in this close three-way.

Still, I wouldn't vote for Waterhouse, just because he is supposedly the "winnable" candidate. Like voting Jeff over Russ, I will vote for inspiring candidates, not the "winnable" candidate.

If more folks accept that their own vote can make a difference, Sharon Barnes can win. Since many already realize she is the best person, the voters of the 24th just need to believe in the power of their own votes. Besides, you're not at the polls to place a bet, but to place faith in your ward's future.

I am not sure what some of you mean by "Best Candidate" but the winner will be Bill Waterhouse, the "Best Choice for Alderman of the 24th Ward."

Waterhouse 49
Bauer 35
Barnes 16

I hope those are percentages and not actual votes, ArchPundit.

I think Arch Pundit numbers are damn near close to what we'll see-percentage wise that is.

Special elections are notoriously low in their turnout. I think that alot of the folks who voted to recall Bauer will come back out and vote straight Democrat.

Mayor Slay made automated calls to all of the voters in the ward today stressing that we support Bill Waterhouse. Then I got a phone call from Bill asking for my vote as well. I think the mayors blessing will help inch it in Bill's favor.

Guess it will really depend on the weather eh? I'll be at Mason School (clifton heights) at 6am stumping for Bill. During the recall I worked at Mason School and I got a very good idea in the first half hour where the election was going by the voters- which were predominately over 50

Sorry to those holding the party-line. For I'm a progressive, not a partisan. Sometimes you have to vote outside your usual party for the "best candidate." Especially when your usual party has failed to nominate a strong choice.

Besides, in the case of a special election without a primary such as this race, the privilege of having "D" behind one's name should mean less when not earned by winning over the public.

Just a guess, but based on some things I've heard. I don't have strong feelings between Waterhouse and Barnes so don't take that as an endorsement or evalaution of the quality of the candidates. Obviously, Bauer is at the bottom of my list.

Does anyone have any theory as to why Bauer even wants to be alderman???

Brian, tell us why you support Barnes. Being a progressive guy, you must have information on her policy positions, so state your case.

Howard, you didn't ask me, but I would be happy to tell you why I support Sharon. She believes in judicious use of eminent domain (i.e., you don't tear down perfectly good homes just to line the pockets of private business). She speaks for herself, while John Corbett is the ventriloquist and Bill Waterhouse the dummy, and Tom Bauer's ass would be better off speaking for him. She actually listens to constituents, particularly at neighborhood association meetings, and researches issues rather than waiting to be told what to do and think by political hacks and unions.

I know Sharon well, I have known Tom Bauer for many years, and I have observed the Waterhouse campaign. Bauer has always been eccentric, but he is over the top now. Waterhouse, I am told, is a nice man, but voters deserve a bit more than that. Sharon Barnes is hard-working, assertive, honest and intelligent. She is motivated by her desire to do her best for the 24th Ward. To Sharon, public service is more important than politics. Isn't that what voters deserve?

Delamer, no slight intended. Inquiry was made to Brian because he tossed out the progressive card. I was interested in knowing the public policy positions that Barnes had taken and swayed him.

Thank you, Howard. I wasn't offended at all. Just had to interject my opinion because I am so close to this one and feel so strongly about it. I, too, would be interested in exactly what moved Brian to the Barnes camp.

If I might interject my opinion as well. As I find it just as hard to believe people are buying the party line as you cannot believe that I am not buying it.

I became a strong Sharon Barnes supporter after hearing both of the men speak. I felt like I needed to wash my hands after hearing Bauer- to scratch my head while listening to Waterhouse.

I can honestly tell you that Sharon's positions on the issues are her own. If you think that either of the Democrats can say that...I have some tax abated land to sell you. It is a mostly dry river bed that runs through the city.

Don't get me wrong- Sharon Barnes is no Joan Bray, but she's no Carol Wilson either. There is no clear progressive choice in this race, as all the candidates have rather conservative views on social issues. But when it comes to individual character, ethics and constituent concern, Sharon Barnes is clearly the best candidate.

The same Sharon Barnes who doesn't have a business license and hasn't been paying earnings tax? Sure.

Political party, personal relationship with candidate, dislike for another candidate, single issue, many issues are among the reasons that people vote for a candidate. Personally, I think single issue voting is the worst way to go.

What are Barnes' positions on other than development? Where does she stand on residency requirement? Where does she stand on local control over Police Department and Election Board? Where does she stand on increasing nuisance crime penalties? Does she think the current charter is perfect? If not, what are her ideas for changes? Is she willing to sponsor/support a Board resolution supporting the stem cell research initiative?

Anyone, pick an issue other than development, any issue, not just those mentioned here, and fill us in on where Barnes stands.

I think it's a little late for issue education on the day of an election.

My grandmother, a 24th ward resident and a lifelong FDR Democrat, liked Sharon Barnes when she came to her door. And such impressions will likely matter more today, if folks are not going to just rubber-stamp the "D" candidate.

Besides, the public doesn't really know much either about where Bill Waterhouse stands. We know he's a "D" for his labor roots, but why else should you vote for him?

No one has yet to offer any theories as to why Bauer even wants to be alderman. It can't be for the pay.

Any ideas?

He does it not for himself but for the late Scotty. I find it most difficult to hold back tears when I think of the two of them.

IT IS SAD THAT TOM BAUER LOST THE LAST ELECTION. I GUESS THE HOOSIERS PREVAILED. I WILL SOON BE LEAVING THE DOG TOWN AREA. SEE YA INBRED METH HEADS.