Moderates or the Base?

Crane Durham, of 97.1 FM, made a puzzling comment on last week's Donnybrook. Durham said, in essence, the key to victory is energizing your political base, not reaching out to the "moderate" voters.

Durham simply could have mean that an effective GOTV machine is crucial (and it is), but given the give-and-take with fellow raconteur Alvin Reid of the St. Louis American, he seemed to imply that the base was the essential ingredient.

Given Republican success at the polls in recent years and their very visible focus on courting and turning out their conservative base, it isn't surprising that moderate voters' influence is overlooked. Those voters have pulled the Republican lever for reasons less easy to define or control (security was the major issue last fall, of course). Yet the margin provided by the base may be erased in the suburbs if the party mishandles issues like education.

The Democratic victory in the 94th may have been less a sign of a Democratic resurgence than suburban voters not reacting to hot-button conservative issues. Some Dems expressed surprise at the conservative tone in Moira Byrd's campaign compared to those of her late husband's, while the Bogetto campaign stressed opposition to controversial decisions made by Governor Blunt and pushed on issues like health care.

That certain blocks had locked up the electoral influence in this country was a common theme in some worried circles last year. This will likely remain true in rural and urban areas (see, Smith in 150th MO House and Goodman in 29th MO Senate districts). However, if the "moderate middle" is becoming more volatile after 5 years, than it may move the political dialogue towards persuading voters that one-or-the-other party is the better choice, rather than merely outflanking them.

Democrat pollster Ruy Teixiera takes a look at the national scene in a New York Times op-ed.
Matthew