I've confirmed the Nixon-Blunt number and I have the Talent McCaskill numbers--you have them write at 48-47. I'll post it tomorrow.

Pack your bags Talent. Your time to come home is beginning to be written in the polls.

You should find Sam Fox's phone number and see if he will find you a job with Wash U again.

2006: will be a Democratic year. If you have ever wanted to run as a Democrat, next year will be a good year to do it.

How about you, Dave?

Jim, do you actually call yourself a consultant or knowledgeable? I hope Talent is done as a US Senator, but if you look at that poll you see he actually gained approval while all the crap in DC with SCOTUS and the leak investigation was going on.

I am no expert, but if the numbers are over 51% that is not good for our side. Now is he vulnerable? Yes, but it is not a sure thing.

Though you may think that Talent should be higher in the polls being an incumbent, I think considering that Bush is dragging everyone down, Talent is looking fine in the polls. If you were an independent that was to be swayed by the negative feelings toward the GOP statewide, you have already been affected. I think that 51% is solidly for Jim. I think unless something bad comes up involving him directly, that he has only one place to go, and that is up. Once the campiagn starts, and people see many of the good bipartisan things he has done in 4 years, then his stock will rise.

Jack the formula is simple. Yes, Talent should be deeply concerned about his re election.

The 51% is Talent's approval ratings, not voters. Vast majority of the time, the horse race question is lower than approval ratings. The horserace question has been consist with all the statewide polls that have been published lately. Talent is not getting 50% of the vote against Claire. In politics, if you don't get 50% in a two way race you lose.

Vast majority of the undecideds break(vote) for the challenger. For whatever reason, they can vote for the incumbent and they have to check out the challenger.

Two other numbers to watch are the approval ratings of Blount, now 33% and Bush 39%, well below the magically 50%. That is and will be a drag on Talent and will continue which looks through next November.

Look at Nancy Farmer last year in her Senate race. Governor Holden approval ratings were with Blounts numbers and Bush was in the low 50's. Nancy got 43% in that political climate.

Therefore looking at these numbers; approval ratings, horserace question and last year votes leads political consultants to predict the final election results, even if we are 12 months out.

The bottom line: Talent needs to find a new job in January, 2007

All the candidates would be wise to start talking to the leaders in the black community early on, to prevent rushing at the last minute trying to cover ground from past mishaps. Some people may be disgruntled with some of the candidates running from their past history and isn't about time to at least consider a statewide candidate that lives north of Delmar or Page. There are plenty of good choices and politics is still about the art of compromise. Right?

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