Doesn't look like Jeff will have much of a problem raising enough money for this race. Will be interesting to see who it's coming from - establishment or anti. Either way, if you think about where he started his last race from, versus where he's starting this one from, I just don't see how he loses.

Jeff is clearly the favorite, but there is a scenario for a Boykins win: (1) If El-Amin drops out and no other well known African American files, leaving Amber as the only major AfAm candidate in the race, AND (2) if another major white candidate with a different political base (e.g., Favazza) files for the seat, it would be a real horserace. In such a 3-way race, Boykins would need to win most of the district's AfAm voters (roughly 45% of the district's voters) and supplement with whites loyal to Amber's white financial supporters (Tucci, Ribaudo).

But even that scenario is tenuous because of Jeff's work ethic. He could win percentages of the black vote ordinarily won only by well-known incumbents (Dougherty, Joyce, and even Slay).

With the City's rough-and-tumble, back-stabbing tradition in the Democratic Primary with a plurality-wins system, obscure last-minute similar name candidates and other stalking horses could once again determine the outcome. This race can't be rationally handicapped until filing closes next March.

Speaking of which, who wants to join a pool on the middle name of the stalking horse candidate?

Jeff is Jeff R. Smith.

That gives us 25 more letters to bet will be on the ballot as the other Jeff Smith.

I'll take B.

Actually, the race is interesting enough without stalking horses. J Mannies is reporting on her blog that Derio G raised $40K in the quarter.

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