There are at least 5 large signs on McCausland Ave. They are hard to miss, about 3 feet by 6 feet.

Given it will be a special election, you can expect only those feeling strongly for or against recall showing up to vote. Though many might feel that Bauer has done an okay job, they won't exactly be inspired enough to go to the polls to save him his job.

Plus, recall supporters live more so south of Manchester (Clifton Heights/Ellendale), where the population is older, longtime residents, who are more likely to vote. OTOH, Dogtown (north of Manchester) is Bauer's backyard (specifically Franz Park), but much of it (especially Hi-Pointe and Clayton-Tamm) comprises younger, more apathetic voters.

For these reasons shared, I predict a successful recall. At the same time, however, the follow-up election would also be a special election. Thus, for similar reasons, the successor will have even less of a mandate.

Still, virtually anyone would be more charismatic than the donkey-man, so his successor just faces the challenge of rebuilding constituent relations.

Tom Bauer has his strengths and weaknesses. He has been supportive of programs helping the severely disabled. If he gets replaced, it will be interesting to see if the replacement is as available to constituents as he has been. Not all aldermen call back when contacted as he has done. His record as a state rep is actually rather progressive, in spite of the image he projects.