Watch to see if Jack Oliver moves back to the District.

Cook means he would be hard to unseat in the GENERAL election vs. a republican (even Jack Oliver)..Carnahan's greatest vulnerability is with a primary challenge and then a tough general.

Also, the R's use a combination of democratic performance and election results to determine if they want to target a race. Carnahan's lackluster cash on hand, plus weak election results in a Presidential year (where D's tend to vote in greater numbers) may mean blood in the water to the R's and they may put some money behind a candidate.

Before we dismiss Russ as a strong candidate, shouldn't we actually wait and see what his COH is? Vince Currao is doing his FR, and Vince is pretty good at it.

public is absolutely right. It is way too early to determine Carnahan's vulnerablilty. He's been to Iraq, had local town hall meetings and seems to be getting his sea legs.

COH will be important but if Russ keeps doing the right things COH will come.

The thing is if Oliver gets in, it's going to be a huge dollar campaign and at that point, having fundraising means you can compete on the air. The larger problem to me is that Russ has not been able to set the agenda in a race. He needs message as much as money and in a race against Oliver, he really needs it.

His staff still needs work from the event I was at. He was somewhat better, but that is with low expectations. His staff wasn't thinking ahead as to how to engage constituents.

My frustration is that this may be a competitive seat when it shouldn't be and the DCCC may have to use resources here instead of in potential pick-ups.

So assuming his COH is good, the other two legs need serious work. I'm the first to admit staff issues are part of being a new office, but there wasn't a sharpness or plan other to engage constituents and that bothered me. Message--well, he needs some help there.

On the good side, the Transportation Committee was a good move as is getting on Science.

The thing is if Oliver gets in, it's going to be a huge dollar campaign and at that point, having fundraising means you can compete on the air. The larger problem to me is that Russ has not been able to set the agenda in a race. He needs message as much as money and in a race against Oliver, he really needs it.

His staff still needs work from the event I was at. He was somewhat better, but that is with low expectations. His staff wasn't thinking ahead as to how to engage constituents.

My frustration is that this may be a competitive seat when it shouldn't be and the DCCC may have to use resources here instead of in potential pick-ups.

So assuming his COH is good, the other two legs need serious work. I'm the first to admit staff issues are part of being a new office, but there wasn't a sharpness or plan other to engage constituents and that bothered me. Message--well, he needs some help there.

On the good side, the Transportation Committee was a good move as is getting on Science.

Arch Pundit-I was at the Lemp Mansion event and would liked to have met you but I didn't see the name "Arch Pundit" on any name tag. It was a good event with a pretty big crowd.

You should know that Russ went back to DC for the Shiavo vote and even though he could have, at the last minute note voted, left the floor or even voted for the dumb ass legislation he had the guts to vote against it and go on the record. -and he deserves credit.

We need to concentrate on getting the statehouse back-not arguing about who might or might not be a better congressman in one of our safe districts.

Dear Norman,

You appear to be the only person who doesn't know who I am so I will continue to torment you for not being able to figure it out.

Second, in the above, I gave a critique of what I've seen of Russ so far and frustration that one of our safe seats may not be safe. I didn't mention anything about challenges or who might be better.

Arch Pundit, I'd like to know at which event you found the staff to be less than competent--I went to a town hall meeting on Social Security and I thought they did a good job there.

My feeling was that at the one I was at, there was little effort to engage the constituents there who were practically begging for things to do. Russ, and I'm not being too hard on this, but it was funny, suggested "writing your congressman" at one point. That's funny, but the larger point was the staff there wasn't prepped to provide action steps and engage the audience in essentially a campaign to save social security. The audience was raring to go, but the staff wasn't ready for it.

Admittedly, this was a new staff. But given MoveOn was part of the promotion of the effort to get people there, why wasn't MoveOn, or better yet DCCC activities given out as action steps (safer and a specific help)? Why weren't they engaged for planned future events? Why wasn't there a list to go down and canvass for Rick Johnson?

If it was just an traditional town hall, that is fine, but the crowd I saw was grumbling for action and nothing was given to them.

Arch Pundit:

As I told you I'm not very computer literate so I couldn't find out who you were-Fortunately I received the following message-

"To find ArchPundit at an event, look for a name tag that says Larry
Handlin. Also look for a brown nose."

I'd be delighted to meet you for lunch at St. Raymonds one Wednesday-we ought to be fighting the enemy not each other.

But I don't think we are fighting each other above Norman. I'm offering fairly modest criticism towards Russ on things he should improve.

And lunch sounds good sometime. The next few weeks are hectic, but we'll do it sometime.