What about Jeff Smith in the third? Rumor has it he's mulling a rematch against Carnahan.

Maxwell wants in the Governor's race from what I understand--though, things can change.

everything i hear says Maxwell 4 Guv. He even said in an interview he would NOT run for senate i believe...

The 5th District County Council seat is significant as it signifies the final piece to majority Dem control of Missouri's most populous county. If the area has turnout akin to Jeff Smith's GOTV and/or if the GOP candidate is not an incumbent, this mid-county area swings blue.

Mike Shanahan, head of Engineered Air Systems, for Senate? Didn't close down St. Louis plant and move all manufacturing operations to Kentucky? I see that being a big issue, moving jobs out of state.

The question is--on local issues will the Dem be as progressive as Odenwald. Odenwald is quite conservative on a bunch of issues, but not many that matter in local government. He's very, very good to cyclists, challenges the subsidization of new development and has taken on the highway department repeatedly. And he might just run for County Exec.

Pat Dougherty won't run in the primary he is a good party supporter.

Jeff Smith is through with politics in St. Louis. His picture with the two watermelons which he just took of his web site make minimalize his candidacies in the future-and you can't come back to the district after spending three semesters in new Hamspire. By the way Russ is doing a fine job-a good team player in DC and when we take back congress in 08 he'll be in a middle level leadership position

Norm, Thank you for the gratis political analysis. I appreciate your advice, and trust that you are billing enough hours to be able to spend leisure time on my Dartmouth faculty website. In light of the outcome of your predictions about the 2004 primary percentages in MO 03, it will be interesting to see if you are correct that a picture from a watermelon-eating contest dooms my political future.

Here's a little snippet from Roll Call on March 1:

Retired Rep. Richard Gephardt (D) served Missouri's 3rd district for 14 terms. His replacement, Rep. Russ Carnahan (D), might be hard pressed to hold the seat for more than one, according to a number of observers of Missouri politics.

***
Hmmmmmm.....

After Russ' abysmal performance in the General in 2004, gaining only 53 percent of the vote in a district drawn to guaranty 60 percent for any Democrat that can walk and chew gum at the same time, Democrats need to focus on keeping the seat in 2006 and not look forward to 2008 yet. I have seen nothing from Russ to convince me that he is the best person to ensure a victory in the 2006 general. Democrats need to look around and find a competent candidate to hold this seat, whether it be Jeff Smith or someone else. We definitely can do better than Russ.

I'm also surprised to see Michael Shanahan on that list. If it is the Mike Shanahan who owns EAS, it would be a shock for him to be a Democrat. I recall Bush I and Bush II visiting his facilities when they were in town.

Hey Norman, is your next defense going to be of Tom Bauer? If so, how is it someone who uses civil rights as his political pedigree can support a guy who ran a racist campaign against Darlene Green?

If Russ can recover from his first web site in the 3rd District race and the doofus picture of him, I'd say pictures on a web site are a rather poor indicator of future succes.

RJ-and ArchPundit for that matter have the guts to use your real name. Archpundit makes a good point about Bauer-he is a racist and a liar-I asked him recently (for the record) whether he would admit that he placed the flag billboards or had anything to do with them. He paused for a second and said "NO."(Yeah right) Primary fights against incumbents are simply nuts especially for Democrats these days-It was nuts for Ms. McCaskill to waste all our money and effort in her race-but having said that there are limitations on party loyalty and I think you may have stated the exception to the rule.

Russ is doing an excellent job-And if he doesn't have to waste his time with spurious primary fights he'll have more time to do a better one.

Any primary challenger who challenges Carnahan on his ability to win the 2006 general election isn't going to be running a spurious campaign.

Russ has gotten off to a great start. He has already been more visible than Dick ever was. For anyone to try to run a campaign against this guy will be in big trouble. Expect him to bring a lot of pork to the district, with his Transportation committee assignment. Also take into the factor the name: Carnahan. Statewide and even national recognition. Anyone who is stupid enough to go against this guy in the next election will deserve the electoral whooping they receive.

You guys are feeding into the spin. Its all political garbage. Russ has this spot locked up until whenever he decides to move on into the next role.

Russ more visable than Dick ever was? Are you nuts? Russ didn't have an office for almost 2 months in the beginning of his term. Where has he been on First Steps or Medicare cuts in Missouri? Where is he in being a voice against what the R's are doing in Missouri...He's been AWOL.

BTW, Transportation Committee does not really have responsibility for the pork, the Approps Transportation subcommittee does. Transportation is actually a fairly easy committee to be on and they usually give it to Freshman who need shoring up at home.

ROFLMAO, "electoral whooping", with all the advantages of name and money, Russ has never put an electoral whooping on anyone. He is a horrible candidate who comes off as arrogant and uninformed when he has to talk to real people. In every race he has run, his electoral performance has been less than expected. Fear of an "electoral whooping" from Russ should be the last thing that keeps others out of this race. The only reason for anyone to consider not running is fear of weakening an already weak candidate such that we lose this seat. The worst possible result in any case would be to let the Republicans take this "safe" democratic seat.

My apologies Norman, I thought you were defending Bauer. My mistake.

But if you were too stupid to read the link I sent some time ago that was an entire article about my site and named me, I think the problem is yours. Or too dumb to click the link about who I am on the web site that identifies me--you aren't the sharpest knife in the drawer.

When I'm identified on the Chicago Tribune web site, I don't think there is a problem. ArchPundit started as a goofy moniker and not it continues as such. If nothing else, it lets me laugh at those who are too slow to figure it out even when I point out who I am.

Cheers,
***** *******

Who is this Norman Pressman? Who are these other clowns. My guess is they are all Carnahan family groupies or paid staffers for Russ. Lets breakdown a few realities:

1. Russ has been in office for about 5 minutes. He's not doing a good or bad job. He appearantly doesn't even have an office yet. Let's forget about the spin good and bad and call it what it is. A cup of coffee in DC and nothing more.

2. What we do know about Russ is that he doesn't come across as arrogant and uninformed.... he is arrogant and uninformed. If his name was Jones or Smith he couldn't win a race for dog catcher. Winning 53% of the vote (against a total extremist)was a landslide for Russ. He's a total lightweight and the Carnahan name was good enough to slip him through a primary with 23% of the vote. My guess is that if that if you held the election again the week after the primary... Russ would have been lucky to get 12%. It's hard to say whether 2 years in the spotlight as congressman will help or hurt his chances in 06. (Can anyone breakdown Russ's history as an electoral candidate?)

3. Russ isn't going to be a leader of anything in DC. In MO he led the democrats right into the minority when he had a campaign leadership post. He's a back-bencher at best in DC.

4. Anyone who works for Russ is just doing so for thw job and not because they believe in the guy. You should hear some of the stories I hear from Russ's own staff here in MO and DC. They know they are selling out.

5. There is NOTHING wrong with primary challenges that result in a stronger candidate and thus a stronger Democratic party. We should all bow down to Russ for the next 30 years? I don't think so. 23% when your name is Carnahan is pathetic. 53% in a 60% democratic district is pathetic. Our best chances for avoiding the embarresment of letting Tom Delay and Carl Rove get the satisfaction of winning Dick Gephardt's seat is to dump Russ and put up a candidate we can be proud of. I have had it with nepotism in politics. Blunt, Bush, Carnhan. Give me a break! The only way for the Democratic party to regain the majority is to put our best team on the field. Anyone want to suggest that Russ represents our "best and brightest"? Norman? The Carnahan Staff bloggers looking to feel better about their jobs?

Anyone who says that Pat Daugherty isn't a good party loyalist if he runs for election is just scared that their candidate can't take the heat. Let's let them all jump in and let the best person win.

That being said it's very early. The buzz in DC is clearly that Russ is in big trouble already. Only time will tell.

Go Pat, GO! I am looking forward to an interesting election...

Congressman Russ Carnahan's District Office
8764 Manchester Rd., Ste. 203
St. Louis, MO 63144
314-962-1523

yeah...opened on Feb. 23...He was sworn in on Jan. 3. Do the math.

Getting an office opened is a big deal for Russ. Given that he had to move his first campaign office last spring because he opened it up in the wrong district it's understandable that it would take him so long to make sure he got it right. Nice work. Next up? Letterhead?