Nice, very nice.

Always a good thing to say about your constituents a month into your administration.

Gov. Blunt's despicable comment underscores the contention among some Democrats that the true political division isn't simply Republican versus Democrat or Conservative versus Liberal. It's urban versus suburban/exurban/rural, they say.

I think that's a facile and ultimately a dangerous analysis for progressives to latch onto because it relieves us of our responsibility to compete in the realm of ideas and solutions, even when it's on turf we don't own. This analysis also suggests that settlement patterns, modes of development or geography are more reflective/predictive of political realities than are the far more significant factors of race and class.

Loathsome as it was, the governor's comment was remarkable for its forthrightness and candor. It demonstrates very clearly how cynical and corrupt his leadership, so called, is likely to be.

Frankly, class is no longer reflective/predictive of political realities. A new critical realignment has occurred, and class struggle politics--which did not exist until the New Deal--is no longer the dominant source of political cleavage. Exit polls showed that people earning under $15,000 supported Kerry by just 3 percentage points more than those earning over $150,000. Sure, the urban poor still support the Democrats, but now, so do the urban rich! And in rural areas, dirt-poor evangelicals who formerly voted Democratic or didn't vote at all voted overwhelmingly for W. This was true both in 2000 and 2004. Case in point: dirt-poor Apalachians have changed West Virginia from safely Democratic to safely Republican.

It usually takes political scientists at least a decade after a realignment has occurred to figure out that it happened and who's on what side, but it looks like the new partisan cleavage is based mostly on values and lifestyle. The largely non-religious secular attitudes in the cities and suburbs (pro-choice and supportive of gay rights) now produce the largest Democratic margins in history in both the City and St. Louis County (and there's more to the County trend than just population migration). And the evangelical rural areas have swung dramatically in the opposite direction: Bill Clinton carried about half of Missouri's 112 rural and exurban counties as recently as 1996, but Kerry carried only one. Settlement patterns, modes of development and geographic aren't the basis for the new political realities; they just correlate better with the actual driving forces than class.

So far, race has survived the realignment as a continuing determinant of voting behavior. But even race showed signs of giving way to values on the east and west coasts, where Bush's percentages of the black vote were in the high teens. In St. Louis, and throughout the midwest and the south, black support for Democrats held over 90%, but those regions historically lag behind developments on the coast. Nationally, African Americans switched allegiance from the party of Lincoln to the party of FDR in the 1930s, but St. Louis blacks elected Republican aldermen from their wards through 1947.

Thank you, Oracle, for that response. Rather than take up space and time for what may be a discussion of limited interest to the bulk of ACC's readers, perhaps we should continue this discussion by e-mail.

I tried to respond to the 'Oracle' link but reached your site, where I found no e-mail link. Could you please contact me at dicolari@si.rr.com so that, if you agree, we can continue?

Many thanks.

Anyone have stats on the geography of Blunts appointments? It seems most are from the Ozarks, few from KC or St. Louis.

We would fully expect a Democratic administration to draw its administrative talent from the ranks of its supporters, such as urban areas, organized labor, academia, etc. So why is it such a shock that a Republican administration would draw its administrative talent from the ranks of its own supporters? It's not like Blunt owes anything to St. Louis. (The young St Louis voters who backed Kerry but got turned off by McCaskill's condescending youth-bashing only amounted to a couple thousand votes at most.) On Election Day, the only finger St. Louis lifted for Blunt was its middle one (and emphatically, at that).

Read the literature before making claims about reallignment not being in it. Specifically Norman Schofeld and Gary Miller are writing on the ongoing reallignment in great detail. Or just make up a claim and spout it. Your choice.

With all due respect, this has nothing to do with Blunt's suspect appointments or cronyism, that is expected of any new administration.

This is about the remarkable fact that the Governor of Missouri would tell people that are are places in our state where people wouldn't want to live.

On its face, it would be tantamount to Francis Slay telling a meeting of visiting businessmen that it'd be great if they moved their business to town, but there are neighborhoods "where no one would want to set up shop."

But beyond that, it is a perfect example of the type of elitist comment that Republicans have attacked "east coast liberals" of making. After I read that, I all but pictured Blunt hopping into a government issued Volvo and forcing it to stop by Starbucks for a no-fat, froth free, soy-skim latte -- or whatever the hell those things are.

Progressives should not accept the hypocrisy. I would suggest that everyone not only get everyone they know to contact Blunt's office, but also contact Jo Mannies and the editors at the Post to force them to force Blunt to state for himself (not through his minions) just where he meant and why he said it.

Peace.

===But even race showed signs of giving way to values on the east and west coasts

First, Bush didn't get in the high teens in the East--he got 13% which is an increase and interesting, but also might well be attributable to low GOTV efforts by Dems in most of those areas. In the west, a similar situation in California in which only 5% of the voting population was black. This makes the group represented in the final sample a question mark unless you have the data broken down--and no one besides the pollsters does right now. As a function of turnout, given we saw religious right increases in turnout, certainly the proportion of black voters for Bush would go up, but that isn't spread across a whole population, but amongst those whom turned out.

===s. (The young St Louis voters who backed Kerry but got turned off by McCaskill's condescending youth-bashing only amounted to a couple thousand votes at most.)

There's a 120,000 vote difference in favor of McCaskill over Kerry's numbers so I'm having a hard time seeing what actual data demonstrates that young voters disliked Claire. If the top of the ticket is any indicator, Blunt did worse with young voters than Claire did. In 18-29 year olds, the key demographic that Blunt should have done much better as the youthful candidate, he did 1 point better than Bush. Hardly a trend. In 30-44, Blunt did worse by 2 points in the very age in which Claire was 'attacking.' Without the internals, just as compelling a case can be made that the party votes have more to do with generational change than with Claire's supposed poor performance with young people. Even with the internals, it doesn't appear that the age issue with Blunt had much to do with the votes amongst young voters.

Comments about Claire lagging among young city voters are based on the fact that in the wards south of 40 and east of Grand, McCaskill ran not only behind Kerry but also behind ticket-trailing Nancy Farmer.

Actually, I have read Miller and Schofield's "Activists and Partisan Realignment in the United States" (published before the 2004 election) as well as an excellent work in progress by Jeff Smith (yes, that Jeff Smith, who happens to be an outstanding political scientist in addition to his campaign personna). I've also reread two classic Kevin Phillips realignment books and Walter Dean Burnham's classic 1970 realignment book. (I was a student of Burnham's when he was here at Wash U, a year or so before he published the book.) I don't just make stuff up and spout it.

A lot of interesting points have been mad in this discussion. I do feel that there has been a realignment in American politics over the last forty years that has finally been cemented with the 2004 election cycle.

Class is still a factor in US politics, but Americans for the most part ignore class when voting. The real difference today is on cultural values and traditionalism versus secularism and one party is out of touch with the masses of the people and the other exploits this gap.

The important thing about the statement of Gov. Blunt is that is shows that St. Louis will get the shit end of the stick at every turn under a Blunt administration. He will cater to his rural and exurban base and punish St. Louis. Like in many other states there is a real disdain for the urban part of the state by rural and exurban voters. A major part of that is race; the message that Blunt sends is "we will not take the money from hard working white people to give to blacks on welfare and immigrants".

An interesting fact; the St. Louis Police Officers Association bent over with no lube for Blunt and endorsed him and they will be one of the biggest losers under his administration ( along with the STLPD getting hammered from the Bush budget). Instead of thinking of themselves, and politics as it is, the St. Louis POA endorsed Blunt on the issues of gays, abortion, guns and race and maybe they can write him a thank you letter when they are writing traffic tickets for the Pine Lawn PD after being laid off due to budget cuts courtesy of their good moral buddies Matt and George.

Do you think the SLPOA's support for Blunt had anything to do with anything other than accomplishing their goal of ending the city residency requirement for police officers?

Wait a minute...what was the genesis of this thread?

RB

Police boards?

Class vs. race exit polling?

Pull your heads out people. The Governor of Missouri just said that if you live in St. Louis or Kansas City (and maybe Columbia), you are doo-doo and don't matter.

Get with the real program folks. This is exactly why we have been getting our asses handed to us on Election Day. Matt Blunt just made a ridiculous statement for which the half of the state who lives in STL and KC ought to be whacking him -- especially progressive activitists like many of you on this site. But instead, you are talking about Miller and Schofield's "Activists and Partisan Realignment in the United States"? WTF?

I mean, if the guy calls us "shit," I feel like I'd see a discussion over the benefits and drawbacks of privatizing municipal sewage systems.

Put down the academic papers, stop relying on Paul Krugman to give you direction, and start fighting back for what you believe in.

Peace.

====I don't just make stuff up and spout it.

If you had read it, you wouldn't have said it. If you know about Jeff's dissertation then why did you say it? if you know about Gary and Norman's work, why did you say it?

It only makes that you said it all the worse.

===yes, that Jeff Smith, who happens to be an outstanding political scientist in addition to his campaign personna

Outstanding? Jeff doesn't say that and he shouldn't. He's a very good qualitative researcher, but even he knows his limitations.

===Comments about Claire lagging among young city voters are based on the fact that in the wards south of 40 and east of Grand, McCaskill ran not only behind Kerry but also behind ticket-trailing Nancy Farmer

And so you based the argument that young voters in this area decided one way how? It's a claim to which you don't have the data.

Last time I checked, most of the real estate in CWE and Lafayette Square was out of my price range. I did notice, however, that Kerry signs/stickers outnumbered Bush by around 8 to 1 in those neighborhoods last fall. So, what Blunt said was simply wrong on its face. Now, if he was only referring to poorer black communities, what does that make him? I'll bet Fort Leonard Wood and its county went for Bush, but I sure wouldn't want to live there again.

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