Arch City Chronicle: Blog: Sorry, more this weekend

Sorry, more this weekend

Sorry no update yesterday or today.

I'll be throwing some stuff up this weekend and next week.

New issue next week looks good.

Meanwhile, I picked up the unofficial ward-by-ward breakdowns from the BOE.

Here a teasing taste until I compile them into something meaningful:

16th ward 78.5% turnout. Kerry 52.6% / Bush 46.5%; Carnahan 43.6% / Federer 54.2%; Charter Amendment Yes votes: A 55%; B 48%; C 52%; D 56%; E 46%.

Posted by Dave on Fri., Nov 5, 2004 at 5:04 PM | ACC Business (82)

Comments

carnahan is likely a 1 termer. i wonder who the republicans will put up against him next time.

Posted by me on Fri., Nov 5, 2004 at 7:28 PM

The 16th Ward isn't representative of the district. It's where Federer grew up and where his parents still live. The family is highly regarded in St Gabriel Parish. Still, it is incredible that Federer ran nearly 8 points better than Bush in this ward. Federer ran even with Bush in Jefferson County, while he trailed Bush by a little over a point in Ste. Genevieve.

Federer benefitted from resentment against Carnahan on the part of the 77% of the Democratic Primary voters who voted for someone else, but that kind of protest vote generally only lasts one election. Those Dems will be back in the fold next time.

Unless Carnahan does something really stupid in his first term, the power of incumbency will allow him to coast in future elections. This election was the GOP's high water mark in this district. Federer would have won the old district, but Joyce Aboussie's masterful redistricting saved his ass this time, and every election the rest of this decade. (After that, Republicans will likely redistrict Carnahan and Clay together in the same district, in a district designed for Clay to beat Carnahan.)

Posted by St Louis Oracle on Fri., Nov 5, 2004 at 9:49 PM

carnahan wont ever win jefferson county, and maybe not ste. genevieve again either. both are trending R big time at the top of the ticket.

if he's smart, he'll run for higher office as soon as possible. the Rs will redistrict him in 6 years, and by then might have a strangle hold on the state.

talent is weak, and like him or not, russ has a name.

Posted by me on Sat., Nov 6, 2004 at 12:58 AM

and no offense oracle, but you were how right this past cycle? :)

so much for a big kerry win....:(

Posted by me on Sat., Nov 6, 2004 at 12:59 AM

Let Oracle have his fun!

Posted by me2 on Sat., Nov 6, 2004 at 3:01 AM

The crystal ball is in the shop for retooling.

More later.

Posted by St Louis Oracle on Sun., Nov 7, 2004 at 8:42 PM

I'll vouch for the Oracle for the 3rd district race - he pretty much nailed that one in the primary, predicting that the ignorant voters would give Russ a narrow victory. Oracle, why are you so sure that the 77% who didn't back Russ in the primary will come home next year? When a guy has 100% name ID and only gets 23% of the vote, that means a lot of people are consciously voting against him. Do you think he is vulnerable to a possible primary challenge, either from the left or the right, based not on ideology but on competence?

Posted by Brad on Mon., Nov 8, 2004 at 5:31 PM

They'll probably try to get Jamie Allman again. With a vote total under 55% Russ will be a target by the RNCC.

Posted by ArchPundit on Wed., Nov 10, 2004 at 11:46 AM

Posted by auberaubta on Sun., Jun 18, 2006 at 11:32 PM

Sorry, more this weekend

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