Good news for McCaskill: You're Gonna Win.

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Good News for McCaskill: You’re Gonna Win.

The old political saying – The only poll that matters is the one on election day – is often a sign of denial, a losing candidate trying to buttress supporter morale. But it might actually be true this time around. For the state-wide races where poll watchers find only the frustration of dead heats within the margin of error, turnout will be the deciding factor. This year, turnout favors the Democrats.

Across our state there continues a wicked divide between rural and urban voters. Butting heads on social issues as well as economic interests, the divide defines state politics. Claire McCaskill has said on the stump that if she can garner 42% of the out-state vote then she will win the governorship win due to the heavily-leaning Democratic urban areas. Robin Carnahan’s poll numbers show that her support in rural areas is much weaker than in urban areas even though she operates a cattle farm. A freakin cattle farm. And she, like all Democrats, still trails out-state!

If Democrats win, it will be on the backs of large turn-outs in St. Louis city, St. Louis County and Kansas City. Those are the places where America Coming Together (ACT) has been working for over a year. ACT and other Democratic surrogate groups claim to have registered over 120,000 new voters through their methodical canvassing techniques.

In Kansas City, congressional candidate Emanuel Cleaver, who was the first African American mayor of that city, is working wonders for the African American turn-out.
Much has been made of his opponent, Jeanne Patterson, spending over $3 million dollars on rounds after round of attack ads. But those attacks appear to be boomeranging and increasing black participation. Consider, Cleaver faced similar attacks during the primary and the response was stunning. In that district’s 2002 primary, about 10% of African Americans voted versus about 19% of the electorate. This year, about 34% of the African American population voted in the primary compared to 29% of the total electorate. In other words, African Americans went from voting less often by about half to voting more often than the electorate as a whole. When you consider that 92% of African Americans voted for Carnahan in 2000, these numbers clearly buoy McCaskill’s prospects.

Here in the Sat. Louis area, Democrats hope that Charlie Dooley’s bid to become the first African American county executive will also generate higher participation. St. Louis County is now home to the largest African American community in the state. There are, however, some rumblings that black support for Dooley is weaker than might normally be expected. Dooley challenged Lacy Clay for his congressional seat and some suggest that there is still some lingering effect.

In the third pillar of the Democrats’ urban stronghold, the city of St. Louis, there are controversial amendments to the charter that are creating racial friction between some factions. This, also, works to increase black turn-out.

Meanwhile the Republican Party lacks the immediacy of hot-button issues that reliably resonate with their core. The gay marriage amendment spiked turn-out in August, but will those voters return next week? The Missouri Baptist Convention which rallied social conservatives against gay marriage is distributing a voters’ guide about the presidential race. But it lacks that same fright factor; it’s doubtful it will have the same effect.

The net effect is that the urban areas will stun those practitioners of that ancient religion – polling. Look for the dead heat on paper to tilt toward the Democrats on Election Day.