Arch City Chronicle: Blog: And what does it mean?

people. politics. st. louis.

And what does it mean?

Who knows?

Here are some things I found interesting:

Christmas-Joyce totals were lop-sided depending on whether they were on the north-side or the south-side. No big surprise there, especially since Christmas ran on race. But Joyce won the central corridor and near south side.

Amendment 2 (Gay Marriage) passed in 17 of the city’s 28 wards. Failing mainly in the central corridor and near south side wards (6,7,8,9,10,14,15,17,24,28) and in ward 11.

Prop E passed everywhere easily. Good news for Home Rulers that there isn’t just outright hostility to any charter changes.

3rd CD:
Ward 8 endorsement went to Carnahan. During the endorsement balloting Jeff Smith only received 3 votes and Stoll ran strongly. Yet on election day it went the other way with Smith getting 1,152 votes and Stoll only winning 72. Also, Stoll won the 9th ward endorsement but again ran behind both Carnahan and Smith - Carnahan 569; Smith 413; Stoll 144.

Highest turn-out wards: 16th (55.6%), 28th (51.7%).
Lowest turn-out wards: 3rd (26.6%), 20th (24.8%).

I was surprised how few Green ballots were taken. The most were in the 15th ward. 9 were taken there.

Posted by Dave on Thu., Aug 12, 2004 at 8:05 AM | News Stew (571)

Comments

The numbers on the northside seem to reflect how some local endorsements mean something. I am surprised McCaskill won the 2nd and the 3rd and wonder if that had something to do with the Christmas-McCaskill alliance. Holden did best in other north St. Louis wards, and had the narrowest margins of victory in south St. Lousi wards except the mighty 23rd. Where north St. Louis politicians did endorse Joyce, that seemed to mean little for the outcome of the races in the ward. Joyce did, however, poll more votes that I had thought she would. I wonder how her numbers correspond to the last circuit attorney election.
Storch's alliance with Christmas also meant little in the circuit attorney's race in wards in the 64th, with the exception with the 26th, where the crowd was already for her and against Schoemehl.

Worst turnout: the 20th and the 3rd.

Posted by will on Thu., Aug 12, 2004 at 10:41 AM

The ward breakdowns show that Russ Carnahan actually carried something: the five city wards in the vicinity of his state rep district. Marianno Favazza carried four wards, and the other nine wards went to Jeff Smith. Both Smith and Favazza won their wards in the face of organizational endoresements for other candidates. They were the two candidates with the best grassroots organizations.

In the county, Carnahan did not carry a single township. Joan Barry won five townships and Jeff Smith won the other four, but Carnahan finished second in EVERY township. In three townships, Carnahan lost by fewer than a hundred votes. His consistently strong mediocrity, there and as well as in Jefferson County, formed the basis of his win.

Posted by St. Louis Oracle on Thu., Aug 12, 2004 at 4:07 PM

---The ward breakdowns show that Russ Carnahan actually carried something: the five city wards in the vicinity of his state rep district.

He didn't carry them though: Carnahan lost 7, 8, 15, 16, 19

Carnahan won 25, 20, 9, 6

Looks like he carried much of the heart of the 59th, but not all of it.

Posted by ArchPundit on Fri., Aug 13, 2004 at 3:57 AM

The five wards carried by Carnahan were 6, 9 17, 20 and 25. A small part of the 17th (not mentioned by ArchPundit) is in the 3rd CD, and Carnahan won there with 70 to 41 for 2nd-place Jeff Smith. All five of those wards are in the vicinity of Russ' state rep district.

Carnahan didn't carry any other wards (including the five mentioned by ArchPundit), but it would be a real stretch to include Mariano Favazza's 16th (St. Louis Hills and western Southampton) among those "in the vicinity of Russ' district."

Posted by St. Louis Oracle on Fri., Aug 13, 2004 at 3:28 PM

If you are including 17, then you have to include 16 given the 16th actually includes part of the 59th.

Posted by ArchPundit on Fri., Aug 13, 2004 at 4:53 PM

I can not believe that the St. Louis Oracle attempts to parallel the success of Favazza's efforts with Jeff Smith's campaign.

While Favazza ran an impressive race given his budget, it was by no stretch of the imagination a grassroots effort. Here is a summary of his campaigns activities:
1) He used his eight kids to drop his lit with pizza flyers at every door in the city (most of his flyers were wasted on households that that did not have registered voters)
2) He plastered his yard signs in every illegal space across "the hill"
3) He flyered catholic churches from U-City to St. Gen. with his pro-life lit
4) He went door to door asking for yard signs and votes

I am sick of candidates and pundits alike throwing around the words grassroots without feeling the gravity of the word. Grassroots means that you have built a volunteer army that is spreading your message virally. Grassroots means that you have brought new people into the political process. A grassroots campaign means that you have somehow impassioned activists to believe that that they can bring about the change that they wish to see in the world. Favazza did many things. He ran an impressive campaign, but under no circumstances can his success be attributed to grassroots. If you want to look at a real grassroots campaign than look at JEFF SMITH or Howard Dean…that is grassroots.

Posted by TN liberal on Fri., Aug 13, 2004 at 7:09 PM

ArchPundit and I must be looking at different maps. The 59th District is entirely east of Grand. The 16th Ward is entirely west of Kingshighway (which is west of Grand), and also farther south than the 59th. No part of the 59th District is in the 16th Ward, which is home to Fred Kratky's 65th District plus two precincts of Mike Vogt's 66th. (Historical note: Before the 1966 redistricting, the 16th Ward was in the Shaw neighborhood, but that's a while back.)

As to grassroots: Yes, Jeff Smith had a better grassroots effort than Mariano Favazza, but Favazza's grassroots effort was the best of the candidates on the Right. The things that TN liberal admits Favazzza did are in fact forms of grassroots campaigning, and Favazza did them better than his opponents. Favazza didn't do many of the other grassroots techniques that Jeff did, which is why Jeff's grassroots effort was better, but some of those activities (like the coffees) come more easily to a candidate who has a large campaign war chest to pay for them and who had time to do them because of the absence of a full-time job over the summer months (Favazza was Circuit Clerk and, unlike Kerry, Gephardt and Russ Carnahan, actually showed up for work during the campaign). I live in Favazza's 16th Ward, and his door-to-door work was very evident there, and contributed significantly to his big win over the ward-endorsed candidate. With less than $50K to work with and therefore no presence on TV, Favazza's efforts were quite effective, putting him ahead of the televised Mark Smith.

Posted by St. Louis Oracle on Sat., Aug 14, 2004 at 4:50 PM

Ward 16
Holden beat McCaskill 1,763 – 1,736
Christmas gets killed by Joyce 342 – 2,999
Looks like 730 Republican ballots were taken, 6 Libertarian ballots and 2 Green ballots.
Amend. 1 failed (1,985 Yes – 2,223 No).
Amend. 2 passed (2,211 Yes – 2,006 No).
Prop E passed (2,829 Yes – 797 No).
3rd CD – Jeff Smith 524; Stoll 119; Mark Smith 340; Favazza 1,360; Barry 690; Carnahan 488.
59th District – Oxford 40; Burrell 23; Rice 38.
Total ballots cast 4,614
Turnout 55.6%

Posted by ArchPundit on Sat., Aug 14, 2004 at 10:22 PM

Sorry ArchPundit:

The Ward 16 figures are a typo on Dave's part.
They are identical to the figures reported for Ward 15, which is the correct assignment.

The following wards are located entirely or partially in state house district 59:

Ward 6 (precincts 2, 3 and 7 only)
Ward 7 (precinct 3 only)
Ward 8 (precincts 7 and 9 only)
Ward 9 (precincts 2,4,5,6 and 8)
Ward 15 (precinct 6 only)
Ward 19 (precinct 2 only)
Ward 20 (all four precincts)
Ward 25 (precinct 1 only)

Incidentally, Ward 16 is located mostly in MO house district 65 (Fred Kratky, with precincts 2 through 8) but ward 16 precinct 1 is located in district 66 (Michael Vogt).

Posted by Joe Frank on Mon., Aug 16, 2004 at 3:40 PM

Good catch Joe! The typo was including the 59th district from the 15th ward results. The other 16th ward numbers look right though . Of course there are probably other typos elsewhere.

Posted by dave drebes on Mon., Aug 16, 2004 at 3:58 PM

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