More back and forth
From the Jeff Smith campaign yesterday:
Carnahan Campaign Sinks To New Libelous Low
Today the sinking Russ Carnahan campaign stooped to a new low with slanderous phone calls saying that Jeff Smith is pro-life, and pro-gun.
Jeff Smith unequivocally supports a woman’s right to choose and supports common sense gun control such as the assault weapons ban and opposes Missouri’s dangerous concealed carry laws. His outspoken advocacy for these and other progressive positions such as universal healthcare and a foreign policy consistent with American values are the reason that his campaign has caught fire with the voters of the 3rd District. Tonight Smith finishes his Town Hall tour with an address to over 70 voters in South St. Louis city.
“The Carnahan campaign continues its slimy campaign of lies, libel, and distortion. First they claimed Russ was the only candidate to vote against conceal and carry. That was false. Joan Barry voted against it. Now they are sinking so fast in the polls that their volunteers or paid phone bankers are telling voters that Jeff Smith is pro-life and pro-gun. These charges are of course blatant libel and will be dealt with in court,” said Arthur Harris, Communications Director for Jeff Smith for Congress. Smith’s campaign is in the process of filing an FEC complaint against Carnahan.
Carnahan’s campaign can’t talk about Russ’ “thin” record of accomplishments, as the Post-Dispatch stated, so they must sink to lies, slander, and dirty politics. The voters of the 3rd District know better and will show so on August 3rd.
What kind of WIMP pulls this off? A wimp who can't stand go anywhere without mommy holding his hand...
You're absolutely right about Jeff, and we should all feel good about being FOR Jeff and what he believes in. Jeff has the skills, the intellect, and the know how to provide real representation for the 3rd district now. There's no learning curve to worrry about, no south side corruption to taint him.
Hey, I like Jean Carnahan and I feel she got a bum rap, but her son is not her, nor is he his father or sister. Russ has failed consistently to prove he can do the job and play with the big boys.
But not Jeff Smith.
Jeff Smith represents a new day for Missouri's politics. He has become Missouri's Wellstone, and we will be proud of what Jeff will accomplish in Congress.
My prediction, based on the posts and comments below, my own reading of the race over several months time, and Carnahan's polling data [including the rumor of a recent internal survey placing Jeff Smith and Joan Barry within striking distance (and explaining Carnahan's recent cash infusion and negative attacks)].
Democratic performance, by ballot order:
Jeff Smith - 21%
Steve Stoll - 20%
Mark Smith - 10%
Michael Bram - 0.3%
Mariano Favazza - 7%
Corey Mohn - 0.7%
Joan Barry - 17%
Russ Carnahan - 20%
Mike Evans - 0.0% (remains on ballot)
Jo Ann Karll - 4%
**Jeff Smith (1st) bests Steve Stoll (2nd) and Russ Carnahan (3rd) by the slimmest of margins.**
(Notably, however, both Russ and Jeff secure less of the vote than Carnahan's recent internal poll predicts).
On Tuesday, the Democratic vote of the 3rd Congressional District splits somewhat evenly between the city of St. Louis (38 percent), St. Louis County (30 percent), and exurbs of Jefferson County and Ste. Genevieve County (32 percent).
--City of St. Louis (38 percent of total vote)
Jeff Smith - 45%, 17%
Mark Smith - 16%, 6%
Michael Bram - 1%, 0.3%
Mariano Favazza - 16%, 6%
Corey Mohn - 2%, 0.7%
Russ Carnahan - 21%, 8%
(% of regional vote),(% of total vote)
-- St. Louis County (30 percent of total vote)
Jeff Smith - 10%, 3%
Steve Stoll - 3%, 1%
Mark Smith - 13%, 4%
Mariano Favazza - 3%, 1%
Joan Barry - 50%, 15%
Russ Carnahan - 20%, 6%
(% of regional vote),(% of total vote)
-- Exurbs of Jefferson County and Ste. Genevieve County (32 percent of total vote)
Jeff Smith - 3%, 1%
Steve Stoll - 59%, 19%
Joan Barry - 6%, 2%
Russ Carnahan - 19%, 6%
Jo Ann Karll - 13%, 4%
(% of regional vote),(% of total vote)
Yoni's numbers are impossible. All three "regional" votes approximate 100%, but they leave out (and therefore assume a zero vote) for certain major candidates. Yoni's City projection allows no votes for Joan Barry, who is endorsed by at least 6 ward organizations plus unions, cops and firefighters. I like Corey Mohn, but Yoni's prediction that he gets 2 more percentage points in the City than Barry isn't going to happen. Similarly, Yoni's "exurbs" prediction allows no votes for Mark Smith. A televised candidate like Mark will not leave Ste Gen and Jeffco empty handed.
One thing Yoni gets right: Carnahan will get a significant percentage of the vote in every region, not just home base. He could win the whole district without winning any political subdivision, by finishing a respectable 2nd or 3rd everywhere, behind different regional leaders.
I'm sticking with my earlier prediction: Russ Carnahan rides the large, turnout-swelling wave of "underinformed" voters to victory.
Posted by Tim Barnhart on Sun., Aug 1, 2004 at 2:14 PMHmm..Yeah..Maybe the region by region breakdown isn't too accurate.
But I stand by the cumulative election totals/predictions.
Your thoughts on a more reasonable breakdown in the regions? And your own predictions for the race?
In addition to my comment to which you responded, my own predictions were featured on this site earlier. (Click on "3rd CD race" and scroll down to July 25, 2004.) Basically, the 800-pound gorilla is the heavy turnout to be generated by Holden-McCaskill and the constitutional amendments. The "marginal non-voters" that these others contests draw into the election are very serious about the contest that got them to vote but pretty uninformed about other contests. These voters aren't following the news on this blog. Some will do the right thing and abstain from the contests they know nothing about, but many others will feel compelled to vote anyway. Their votes will be influenced by name recognition, who they've seen on TV (they don't read their "junkmail"), and who they think is going to win (Uninformed voters feel personally validated when they vote for the winner). And in this election, they may constitute up to half the electorate. These factors favor Carnahan.
Posted by Tim Barnhart on Sun., Aug 1, 2004 at 7:20 PMTim, You offer some interesting perspectives on this race but I think you are underestimating how educated voters are in this race. With 10 candidates in the race their has been plenty of discussions about Russ and his flaws across the district. The internet has made it easier for these discussions to happen. Additionally Jeff Smith has run a nearly unprecendted grassroots effort which I think you are missing. I think you will be shocked at just how many people know the scoop on Russ. He is falling like a rock and his desperate antics this week have not helped. I think it is unlikely that he can find enough voters to win.
That being said.... I still agree that rain will not be good news for camp Carnahan. What a sad commentary to be counting on voters who don't know anything to come to the polls. That's certainly something inspiring for folk to rally around.
Posted by Mitch on Sun., Aug 1, 2004 at 10:31 PMMitch, I continue to predict Carnahan in the 3rd and a big (10 point or better) McCaskill win over Holden, but that's not how I'm voting. I would like very much for my predictions to be wrong.
Posted by Tim Barnhart on Sun., Aug 1, 2004 at 11:35 PMJust as I hope you are wrong, you've given some good analysis Tim.
Posted by ArchPundit on Mon., Aug 2, 2004 at 12:38 AM
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