Excellent piece by Tim Barnhart on the 3rd CD
Handicapping the 2004 Primary: 3rd Congressional District
By Tim Barnhart
In the Democratic Primary for this safely Democratic seat, what was initially thought to be a coronation for State Rep. Russ Carnahan has turned into a wide-open free-for-all. There are 10 candidates, most of whom have significant credentials and bases of support. With so many strong candidates dividing the vote, factors that swing just a percentage point or two can be decisive. Any candidate who can top 25% will win.
The one-time sure thing for Carnahan fell victim to a growing perception that Russ is the dim bulb on the Carnahan family tree. He just doesn’t seem to measure up to the legacy of his father (the late Governor Mel) or his mother (former Senator Jean), and he is overshadowed as well by sister Robin (unopposed for the Democratic nomination for Secretary of State). These perceptions were compounded by disappointing early fundraising results. That was just enough to break down the early bandwagon. Now Russ must scratch it out with the others. Here are some of the factors that may decide who wins:
Ideology. The formerly conservative district is now nearly evenly divided between conservative and progressive (“liberal”) voters, at least in the Democratic primary. A single dominant liberal or conservative would win easily, but there are too many strong candidates in both camps for that to happen. While the mix of social and economic issues make some candidates hard to peg, most observers believe that liberals will be drawn to Carnahan, Jeff Smith, Mark Smith, former State Rep. Jo Ann Karll, Corey Mohn and Mike Evans, while conservatives will opt among Sen. Steve Stoll, former State Rep. Joan Barry, Circuit Clerk Mariano Favazza and Michael Bram. Jeff Smith especially appeals to liberals who favored Howard Dean prior to that campaign’s implosion, and the small but loyal cadre of Dennis Kucinich supporters has one of their own in Mohn.
Single-issue politics. Abortion and gay marriage are getting lots of attention. But in a divided field, the important issue is the one that sets out one major candidate from all the others. In a primary, that is often an issue on which a candidate’s position is out-of-sync with the party. The single issue that could be decisive in this contest is gun control. The field favors gun control (or at least opposes “conceal and carry”), except for Stoll and Bram, and Bram’s candidacy has lots of other problems. The National Rifle Association could snare a seat in a largely urban district with a stealth campaign to get its members to vote in the Democratic Primary for Stoll. I have no indication whether or not that’s actually happening.
Geography and “home turf” loyalty. The biggest geographic factor is the pervasive anti-St. Louis bias that outstate voters demonstrate regularly. Voters in Jefferson and Ste. Genevieve Counties identify more with outstate Missouri than their urban neighbor. This gives Stoll, from Jefferson County, a big advantage in those counties (about a third of the district). He has to share home-turf advantage with Karll in northern Jefferson County, but his conservative stances on abortion and guns sell better there than the pro-choice Karll. Barry is expected to run strong in her St. Louis County base, but 2002 redistricting removed much of that territory from the district. Some pundits give Carnahan a similar edge in south city, but the recently transplanted Rolla native is not really well positioned to claim hometown loyalty. On the other hand, his Rolla roots will help him encroach on Stoll’s turf south of the Meramec. Favazza will win a chunk of the conservative part of the city vote, but votes of city progressives are up for grabs. So are voters in central St. Louis County, from University City to Webster Groves.
Money and Media. The marginally inattentive voter (who throws away political doordrops and direct mail without looking at them) can only be reached by television and radio ads, and half the field has raised enough money to afford air time. Carnahan’s fundraising, though disappointing, is still better than any other Democrat (though well behind Republican Bill Federer), and Carnahan was first to hit the air. Jeff Smith’s war chest could challenge Carnahan on the airways, but rumors say he may spend it elsewhere (which would fail to capitalize on one of the photogenic candidate’s primary assets). Mark Smith, Stoll and Barry also have six-figure balances which could buy some air time. No one else raised as much as $35,000.
Organizational endorsements. Organizational endorsements are waning in importance, but could still provide the winning edge in a wide-open field like this. Carnahan has the support of Planned Parenthood and the gay rights organization PROMO, but not his mother’s home township (Clayton), which backed Jeff Smith. Barry enjoys healthy support from organized labor, in spite of her social conservatism, and the St. Louis Police Officers Association. She scored five important ward endorsements in Favazza’s back yard, but Favazza’s dominance in yard signs in those wards (an admittedly risky measure of support) suggests that many voters are unimpressed with those endorsements. Stoll enjoys support from teachers unions (despite his opposition to abortion rights) in addition to strong party backing south of the Meramec. He trumped the other pro-life candidates by winning the Missouri Right to Life endorsement. Stoll’s endorsement by the 9th Ward organization seems like an important coup in Carnahan’s home district, but that organization’s clout is eroded by the emerging political influence of the progressive Jeanette Mott Oxford.
Motivated grassroots organization. In the similarly wide-open 2000 Republican primary in the 2nd District, State Rep. Todd Akin defeated better known and better financed opponents because he had the most dedicated core of volunteers. Grassroots intensity often flows to candidates like Akin, underdogs with a fighting chance. So who has the fired up troops this year in the 3rd? The liberal candidate with the most intense grassroots loyalty seems to be Jeff Smith. He apparently picked up many of those who had been prepared to support State Sen. Joan Bray before she dropped out, and those people are among the best grassroots organizers in the area. Howard Dean’s endorsement adds to the atmosphere. The grassroots candidate of the Right is Favazza. Conservative rivals Stoll and Barry have garnered most of the conservative ward, township and organizational endorsements, but Favazza has beaten that before. His intensely loyal grassroots support outflanked overwhelming organizational opposition when he upset Circuit Clerk Mavis Thompson in 1998. This year, his carefully targeted high-turnout areas are seeing an impressive flurry of his signs and flyers. He is a shrewd strategist, he feasts on foes who underestimate him, and he knows how to win votes. However, his recent retaliatory strike against Barry-backing Aldermanic President Jim Shrewsbury was a strategic blunder that will backfire.
Gender loyalty. One of politics’ dirty little secrets is that, all things being equal, voters tend to vote for candidates of their own gender. Data show this to be especially true among women. This factor probably only amounts to one or two percentage points, but in a divided field, those votes could be decisive. It is noteworthy that while Jeff Smith inherited many of Bray’s former supporters, three prominent women in that camp backed Karll in the Clayton Township endorsement vote. There are only two women in the race, and the ideological differences between the socially conservative Barry and the liberal Karll lessen the chance that they will compete for the same votes.
Name confusion. Former Mayor Freeman Bosley, Jr. won his first election when a political unknown with the same last name as Bosley’s major opponent drew more votes than Bosley’s margin of victory. This year, unrelated Jeff and Mark Smith will each probably lose some votes to each other due to voter confusion, and the stronger Smith will lose more. On the other hand, Barry may pick up support from voters who confuse her with well-respected former candidate Bray.
Ballot placement. Jeff Smith won the lottery to appear first on the ballot. The bottom spot (often regarded as the next best ballot placement) belongs to Karll.
Bandwagon. Many casual, unaligned voters in the St. Louis area seem to use voting as an exercise in personal affirmation. They feel better about themselves if they vote for the candidate who wins. Subconsciously (or sometimes even consciously) they seek out who is going to win and then vote that way. This phenomenon helps explain why so many voters in the 3rd District voted for Dick Gephardt in his contest and (until 2000) for John Ashcroft in his, in the same trip to the polls! Carnahan entered the race as the “presumptive nominee,” and he still enjoys that aura among those who aren’t paying attention. Television and radio ads over the last three weeks will reinforce this impression, unless another candidate can outdo Carnahan with more or better commercials. Only the monied candidates have a shot at this pathetic but frequently decisive bloc of voters.
Turnout. This factor interacts with the others and helps determine which ones matter. The voters who vote in low-turnout elections are the well informed regulars, whose decisions are less affected by media advertising. Strong grassroots candidates do well in low-turnout elections. The additional voters who participate in high-turnout elections tend to be marginally inattentive, and are the most likely to be swayed by bandwagon psychology and advertising. So a high turnout favors the monied candidates, while a low turnout favors candidates with strong organization backing and good grassroots organizations. Selective turnout is even more important. A controversial ballot measure or other primary contest that attracts voters of a particular ideological bent or those from just one region can be decisive. Amendment 2 may attract both progressives favoring gay marriage and “Religious Right” opponents, but the extra voters who take a Democratic ballot will be predominantly liberal. Contentious Democratic primaries for state representative for Carnahan’s old seat and in the western part of the city will also attract disproportionately liberal voters. On the other hand, the Democratic turnout in left-leaning central St. Louis County will be eroded by well-publicized Republican primary contests involving Clayton’s Gene McNary, Shrewsbury’s Kurt Odenwald and Webster Groves’ Joan McGivney. Barry’s south county base will also be eroded by contested GOP primaries involving Sen. Anita and Bob Yeckel.
This analysis has very little to say about Mark Smith, because I have never figured out the source of his support. He is personable and has sound proposals and a credible resume, but the same can be said of most of his opponents. His stint as police board president has attracted business backers, but not the Police Officers Association. Others apparently know what I don’t, though, because he is among the leading fundraisers and his lawn sign representation in my neighborhood is more than respectable. Other pundits list him among the handful given a decent chance of winning.
So, all things considered, who wins? The divided candidate field means that any of a half dozen candidates have a serious shot at winning, so it wouldn’t be that surprising if the person I have picked to come in 5th or 6th actually takes the prize.
If turnout is low, Stoll and Jeff Smith could win. Jeff Smith seems to be gaining momentum among seriously progressive Democrats, but I give the edge to Stoll if turnout is low. His campaign has a classic “niche” appeal that could snare the plurality in a divided field. His “niche” is conservative Democrats favoring his pro-life, pro-gun and anti-gay-marriage positions. Notably he is the only “serious” pro-gun Democrat in the contest (Bram doesn’t count). If the National Rifle Association gears up a stealth campaign to get its members to vote in the Democratic Primary, Stoll probably wins.
However, I believe that turnout will be at least moderate, and in the end, the sophisticated factors I have discussed will cancel each other out, leaving money and name recognition to carry the day. So in spite of campaign disappointments and the “dim bulb” aura alluded to earlier, Carnahan is my pick to win it all, with Stoll a close second. Barry’s smart media campaign identifying her with health care will vault her into third ahead of Jeff Smith. Karll, Favazza and Mark Smith will battle for fifth, while Mohn will lead the bottom three, ahead of Evans, with Bram coming in last.
In the Republican primary, “Religious Right” conservative and two-time nominee Bill Federer faces former Webster Groves council member Joan McGivney in a district that is much less conservative than in Federer’s prior runs. Federer has raised nearly $900,000 (50% more than the leading Democrat), but 90% has been frittered away with little to show for it. His campaign reports disclose substantial fundraising expenses, large wireless bills and high bank fees from a Virginia bank (including bounced check charges). The capable, articulate and moderate (almost liberal) McGivney will run well in her home turf and in less conservative additions to the district (Maplewood and portions of Richmond Heights, Clayton and University City). It is unclear whether Federer’s well-publicized legal hassles with a vindictive Gephardt campaign will draw sympathy from GOP voters or leave them wanting to try someone new. Federer has greater name recognition and intense loyalty from Religious Right voters, so the primary is his to lose.
Libertarian Kevin Babcock has no primary opposition.
Who is Tim Barnhart? And how does he think the gubernatorial primary will impact the 3rd CD -- and vice versa.
Posted by Dean Democrat on Sun., Jul 25, 2004 at 2:43 PMa few things:
Russ' Rolla roots are worthless to Jefferson and Ste. Gen people. He barely mentions them, and all they know is he's a STL boy, and his voting record shows it.
Overall a pretty good analysis, but I think you slightly underestimate what jeff and mark smith will take in the way of the liberal base.
Also Jefferson and Ste. Gen counties have major primary battles on the D side, which is sure to help the hometown candidate.
I think any of 4 or 5 could win honestly.
Posted by Rich on Sun., Jul 25, 2004 at 7:34 PMI don't see how Mark Smith wins--what Tim misses there is that as the top of the ballot, Jeff picks up the advantage. Mark has no real base of support. He'll do okay, but I can't see how a winning coalition comes out of it. Generally good analysis though. I'm of the opinion that grassroots anger might carry the day, but who knows in the end.
And Federer wins. The Rs aren't happy about it --though they don't like McGivney either. He's got name recognition and some serious hardcore support amongst right wing activists.
Posted by ArchPundit on Mon., Jul 26, 2004 at 3:43 AMTim Barnhart's piece is comprehensive, but I flawed in several ways. Here is how I see it:
1. Carnahan was the 800 pound gorilla but his candidacy is in a total free fall! He just loaned himself another $50,000 today over the $15,000 he put in last week. He now has now donated over $100,000 to his campaign because he's losing the money raising game to Jeff Smith 3 to 1 over the last month. Many of Carnahan's early supporters who gave money early backers and endorsements on because Jean asked them to are now realizing that Russ is "dim bulb". Russ is losing votes from everywhere -- Mark Smith, Favazza, and Joan Barry in the city. Jeff Smith is dominating him in U. City, Webster Groves and Clayton with huge momentum now building in the city. Russ is getting carved up like a Thanksgiving Turkey and he may end up finishing dramatically worse than anyone had thought. The consensus of the pro-choice movement is increasingly that a vote for Russ instead of Jeff Smith may keep Jeff from getting his own vote total high enough to slip in ahead of pro-life/NRA etc. Steve Stoll. Carnahan's free-fall completely changes the complexion of this race. My guess is that Russ finishes 3rd or 4th behind Jeff Smith, Stoll and probably Barry.
2. Steve Stoll is executing his plan of focusing on social conservatives, Jefferson County and his teachers base. The teachers could push him over the top if they are not turned off by his NRA and Pro-life backing.
3. The key for Joan Barry is to leverage her base, steal some social conservatives from Stoll and hope that liberals are unaware of her Pro Life, anti stem cell research and pro gun positions and assume that because she is a woman in this race that she must be pro-choice etc. Confusion with Joan Bray was once considered an asset but seems to be less likely to be a factor. Joan's problem is the relatively surprising strength of Mark Smith and Favazza in areas that she needs to win big. If enough liberal flee Carnahan and confuse her politics she could be a factor.
4. Jeff Smith is continuing to surge in terms of grassroots support and money. He clearly is the big winner as Carnahan's campaign sinks. Someone recently joked that they think Jeff will get 75% of Russ's financial contributors to vote for him. Jeff seems to be dominating Clayton, U. City and Webster Groves. Now he is surging in many parts of the city and with progressives throughout the district. The campaign has highlighted Jeff's strong credentials in the African American community and looks to be adding that constituency to his coalition as well.
Donations are surging to the point where Smith's strong grassroots' and mail campaign are about to be complimented with a substantial TV buy in the last week of the campaign. In the end it's word of mouth that is fueling the Jeff momentum. I was in a coffee shop over the weekend and saw two different people evangelizing to their friends about Jeff and sharing a video documentary about his campaign with them.
If this race was held in a month Jeff would likely have it in the bag. The question is whether the high energy of candidate, his staff and volunteers can get his vote total high enough to best Stoll. It will be interesting to see if a movement emerges from Carnahan's, Jo Ann Karl's, Corey Mohn's and Mark Smith's more progressive supporters to to rally around Jeff to prevent socially conservative Stoll or Barry from taking seat. Watch for this to happen if Russ is loaning himself money to put together a smear campaign in the final week of the race against Jeff.
Mark Smith and Favazza are likely to slightly exceed low expectations but in the end there role will be that of spoiler in this race. Mark Smith was initially viewed as a negative to Jeff Smith given their names and WU connection. It hasn't played out that way because of Jeff's dominance in Clayton, U. City and Webster. Mark has shifted the focus of his campaign to South St. Louis where he is stealing votes from Carnahan, Barry and to a lesser degree Jeff. The only thing that we know about Favazza is that he will get more votes than anyone expects but does not stand a chance of winning. The question is how much this will hurt Barry and Carnahan in particular.
This has been and will be nothing short of a fascinating race. In the end this is likely to come down to Jeff Smith and Steve Stoll at the finish line. The two candidates have taken radically different paths. Stoll has known all along that he has had a large enough base to win this race if it was fragmented enough. While he has had ups and downs (it has been reported that he was even thinking about quitting the race a couple of months ago) he now finds himself in a position to sneak into a win at the finish line.
Jeff Smith started with no base and has built a passionate rapidly growing base of support among a group that views him as having the greatest capacity to serve and make a difference. This scrappy candidate and his equally scrappy campaign team have executed nearly flawlessly to put themselves in a position to win. The question is whether they will have enough left in the tank to get to the finish line.
My guess is that Jeff will in the end win. A last week burst of television, endorsements and grassroots will put him ahead at the finish of a race we will all be discussing for a very long time.
The people of St. Louis are going to be living with whoever wins this race for years if not decades. Down the stretch this has gotten the electorate engaged.
My predicted order of finish of the top tier candidates:
1. Jeff Smith
2. Steve Stoll
3. Joan Barry
4. Russ Carnahan
5. Mariano Favazza
6. Mark Smith
I would be interested to hear what others think.
Posted by Connner on Mon., Jul 26, 2004 at 12:34 PMI don't see jeff getting enough votes from jefferson or ste. gen to win.
Carnahan might be starting to show blood, but I wouldn't put a savage ad campaign against jeff out of my mind when thinking of him. he's spiteful enough to destroy jeff and joan with his money and let stoll win just so the Jeff is forced to live with a pro-life congressman. he is that petty.
If Stoll does really well in Jefferson and Ste. Genevieve counties, and gets the votes from the 9th and old-school 15th that some are predicting, then the fragmented liberal base won't put up enough numbers for ANY other candidate to win, surging or not. Why would Jefferson or Ste. gen county voters vote for a very liberal Wash U professor? Jeff might really, really, really struggle in a general election against a seemingly reborn Bill Federer, who will unleash anti-abortion ads in ways Jeff can't dream. Jean Carnahan barely carried Jefferson County in 02, and a more liberal candidate will likely fall even farther behind. wihtout jefferson and ste. genevieve counties solidly behind you, a democrat cannot and will-not win this race in the general.
why would Karll get behind Jeff when Russ is behind her candidacy? And Mark Smith is REALLY pro-life, but he switched to a "personal pro-life, not in favor of banning abortion" stance for the primary. Given that Stoll has a great labor and economic record, which are his bread-and-butter issues, why would he rally with Jeff to beat him? Its just not going to happen.
Predictions:
Stoll 25%
Carnahan 22%
J. Smith 19%
Barry 12%
M. Smith 10%
Favazza: 8%
The Rest of the field gets the remaining 4% or so.
Posted by Rich on Mon., Jul 26, 2004 at 5:20 PMI tend to think that Conner has it right. I think Rich is slightly overestimating the strength of Stoll, Mark Smith and Russ while underestimating the strength of Joan and Jeff. Joan will certainly get more than 12% and hurt Russ and Stoll in the process. The intensity of Jeff's supporters have a chance of getting him up somewhere closer to 23, 24% or more. There will be an enormous amount of support for Jeff from Independents and even Republicans who are supporting him for his ability even if they don't agree with him on all of the issues.
It's going to be tough for Stoll to get that high. One thing is for sure. It's going to be a long night next Tuesday.
I also disagree with the notion of Jeff having trouble winning the general election. The district is 59% Democratic. Jeff, Russ, Joan and Stoll should all easily be able to win in November. I think the biggest risk of a loss is Russ drooling on himself and depending on his Mom to win him the race again. His performance in his first race for the legislature (I think he won by a couple of dozen votes while his father was a sitting Gov.) and this primary should not give anyone any confidence in his ability. Jeff, Joan and Stoll would win easily in my opinion.
Posted by Tim on Mon., Jul 26, 2004 at 6:19 PMSomebody told me that Russ spent $20,000 on polling last quarter and hasn't released the results. He was pretty quick to release the numbers that showed him with a big lead in early spring. I think we can all read quite a bit into what his latest polling must be showing him if he has not released it. I doubt Stoll and Jeff Smith had taken a lead in June but I bet it's pretty damn close. I also can't imagine that the Post Dispatch endorsement is likely to bring Russ any good news.
Putting $65,000 of his own money into the race at this late date seems like desperation to me. I guess he feels that his Mom and sister can help him raise money to pay it off if he loses. If I were Jeff Smith, Stoll and Barry I would be worried that Russ is going to use that money to go negative in a big way. His callers are already doing it behind the scenes. My personal feeling is that going negative is only going to make it worse for Russ. Does anyone know what Russ did when he almost lost his state legislature race a few years ago? Was that a shocker at the end or did everyone realize that it was close?
Posted by Jason on Mon., Jul 26, 2004 at 6:52 PMFirst of all, this is my first time on this site and I think it is great!
Second of all, I simply don't understand where everyone thinks Carnahan is going to get all of these votes from. Does anyone real know anyone who is actually planning on voting for him? Has anyone seen more than a half dozen signs around town? The media gets this kind of stuff wrong all of the time. What happened to Gephardt and Dean in Iowa. We thought they were a lock. Sometimes things happen on the ground and the best candidates win out. Our political system has it's problems but it actually works more often then not. I think we all have a lot of respect for the Carnahan's but Russ is simply not the right person for us to send to Congress. Stoll and Barry's politics are not in line with mine, but I hear good things about them. I met Jeff Smith recently and was very impressed. I would be suprised in Russ does nearly as well as everyone seems to think. The voters are smarter than folks give them credit for. The notion that Federer would win an election is laughable. A moderate Republican could have a shot. Mr. Federer is not that candidate.
Posted by Sean on Mon., Jul 26, 2004 at 8:49 PMsean--
you clearly havent seen Federer 3.0-- hes a new man. Isn't wild-eyed crazy anymore. its pretty scary actually.
and the anti-gun, anti-death-penalty, pro-choice politics of jeff smith are going to very very very seriously hurt him in a general, particularly if the NRCC decides to target this race, as they almost surely would in that case. Jean Carnahan barely carried jefferson county. its very similar to a situation like what St. Charles was in a number of years ago-- and the democrats lost because things were percieved as too liberal. most of the local Ds in Ste Gen and Jefferson County are fairly moderate sorts, and very much out of line with Smith in terms of his absolutist positions on abortion and his opposition to concealed weapons. IIRC, only one dem from Jefferson County voted against C&C-- Rick Johnson. All of Ste Gen's reps voted for it. Consequently, only two of Jefferson COunty's state reps are pro-choice, one is Rick the other is Mark Abel, who might be replaced with a pro-life candidate in the primary since he is running for State Treasurer. And Rick's district really isnt that much of a pro-choice district, so much as it likes him personally. the 103rd tends to switch back and forth-- stoll was pro life, englebach before him as well, abel is pro-choice, and theres a strong possiblity whomever takes the seat will be pro-life as well (although the arguable leader in the race is pro-choice)
I don't see how any of you think Jeff will breeze through a general election with those stats staring him in the face. Yeah, this might be a 59% dem district, but a ton of it are conservative dems who won't take kindly to someone from Clayton/University City/Webster Groves coming down and telling them how things are going to be. These areas tolerated gephardt because he was such a longtime incumbent when he was added to the area. and even that good-will had been running somewhat low toward the end. Needless to say, St. Louis has little to no good will engendered in these two areas, which are in many peoples opinions, mistreated by the powers that be in the city and county/
Posted by Rich on Tue., Jul 27, 2004 at 12:15 AMThere is some really good analysis on this thread. To boil it all down, every one seems to agree that the race is a toss-up right now. I'm not so sure about that.
Without going into all the factors, it seems fairly obvious that Jeff Smith has all the momemtum in this race right now and is taking support away from Russ daily. I suspect that the momentum, staff and money that Smith has will push him to victory, but I'm not so sure it will be as close as some expect.
I would not be surprised to see Jeff beat his next closest opponent by at least five points, maybe more. I've heard people going door-to-door for a couple of campaigns comment on how strong Jeff's support is in areas where they did not expect to find it.
As for the General Election, I expect that you will seee Democratic turnout in the 3rd District and statewide like you have not seen in decades. I'm not worried anbout the 3rd District seat going to a Republican regardless of who wins the primary. I just hope that we can get enough people out to the polls to finally take back Bond's seat.
Posted by GumboYaYa on Tue., Jul 27, 2004 at 7:09 AMBut isn't Jeff against Federer the fight we all want to have on our hands? ;) I know I want to be a part of it. I actually think that Federer will implode and his ethical problems will be exposed by the press. Hell Aboussie might just toy with him for old times sake.
Posted by ArchPundit on Tue., Jul 27, 2004 at 11:13 AMSign me up for J. Smith vs. Federer. I relish that fight. Trust me.... the DCCC are not going to let Jeff lose this race in a 59% district. If Jeff can outraise the field out of nowhere I can't imagine how many resources he will bring to a race against Federer. The opportunity to have someone like Jeff who will emerge as a national leader in DC is something that St. Louis is and should embrace. I think I read somebody's post on here that the only way for the Democrats to lose this district is to have someone who will drool all over themselves. The only candidates that might fit this bill are Rusty and perhaps Mark Smith. Let's elect someone who can win and then make mark in DC!
Posted by Roger on Tue., Jul 27, 2004 at 12:40 PMI am Tim Barnhart, author of the piece that was the springboard for this thread. I am pleased that my piece prompted this excellent string of comments and inspired others to play "amateur analyst" as well (Somebody call Bill McClelland!")
Some responses and updates:
Who am I? I am a 50+ year political junkie with lots of grassroots experience with different parties. I am active with progressive 3rd parties, currently state treasurer for the Missouri Green Party. I am not the "Tim" who posted Comment #6.
Cross impact with Holden-McCaskill: I don't think the 3rd Dist primary impacts the gubernatorial primary meaningfully. However, I think the Holden-McCaskill race will increase turnout, and this highlights the factor I think many commentators have either missed or underestimated: the impact of the underinformed voter. Many people who don't ordinarily vote in primaries but who want to vote for or against Holden or McCaskill or for or against a contstitutional amendment will participate. They are very informed about the contest drawing them to the polls, but not necessarily about other contests. Some of those won't vote in the contests where they are underinformed, but many feel compelled to vote anyway. These are the "marginally inattentive" voters who are swayed by name recognition, tv ads and bandwagon perceptions (the desire to vote for the winner). Unless Carnahan's slippage can be better publicized outside of chat among political junkies (the marginally inattentive voter doesn't know this blog exists, and wouldn't bother to visit even if they did), the Holden-McCaskill turnout will favor the candidates on TV, and especially Carnahan. Other monied candidates could deflate this by running ads publicizing the slippage of support for Carnahan.
Jean Carnahan's tv ads backing Holden will help Russ Carnahan among Holden voters. In a 10-way race (Evans will remain on the ballot) won by a plurality, appealing to 45% supporting Holden is more important than repelling the 55% who oppose him. (Yes, I believe McCaskill will win by at least 10 points.)
Post's endorsement: It certainly enhances Mark Smith's credibility, but the importance of the Post endorsement diminishes every year. Circulation is down, and more people read (and give credence to) Jo Mannies' weekly column than the Post's daily editorial page. Most voters learn about the endorsement from ads of the endorsed candidate, not by actually seeing the editorial. The endorsement will help Mark take some liberal votes away from Jeff Smith and also some "marginally inattentive" votes away from Carnahan. But not very many.
More Mark Smith: A high-profile Barry supporter admits that Mark has the most effective tv spots. Of course, the "same high school as Dick Gephardt" line also describes GOP's Joan McGivney (and me for that matter).
I actually believe that Barry's own spots are the smartest. While she looks a little out of place appearing to direct the firefighters, her effective identification of herself with health care ties in with what's on many voters' minds right now.
Losing to a Republican? Some folks opposed to Jeff Smith are raising the spectre that he's so liberal he'll lose the general election. Not gonna happen. Joyce Aboussie redistricted the 3rd, removing Republican Sunset Hills and most of Tesson Ferry Township and substituting more St Louis City plus Democratic strongholds in Maplewood, eastern Clayton and Richmond Heights and southern U City. A Republican could carry Jefferson County and south St. Louis County, but Democrat majorities elsewhere would more than make up the difference. Democrats should pray that the RNCC targets this race, wasting its money here and making some other district more vulnerable to Democratic turnover. Even I couldn't lose this district if I were the Democratic nominee.
IRV: Maybe the 75% who end up supporting a losing candidate will be more interested in Instant Runoff Voting (IRV) after the primary.
Posted by Tim Barnhart on Tue., Jul 27, 2004 at 1:52 PMI think Tim is right in calling our attention to the large voter turnout. This will help Carnahan to some degreee. I also believe it will help those candidates who have been able to drive passion through their candidacies with strong word of mouth. What some are missing about Jeff Smith's campaign is how many Independent's and in some cases Republican's are fusing together with his progressive base to create support that will be a big suprise next week. These folks are committed to getting the most capable leader to Washington.
That is what happens when you build a grassroots campaign from the ground up. 100 coffees and tireless campaigning should lead to some suprising results next week for Jeff. I also hear that Jeff is getting ready to make his own TV push to compliment his grassroots efforts.
Russ may pick up some cheap votes from those who turn out without being informed about the 3rd CD. In the end I think we are all overlooking just how far he has fallen. The voters prove to us over and over again that they are smarter than we give them credit for. I like Conner's desctiption of Carnahan as a carved up Turkey. It's hard to see where this bird has any meat that hasn't been picked over at this point. The perception of Russ as an empty suit goes a lot further than this blog.
Posted by Phil on Tue., Jul 27, 2004 at 4:06 PMStrong grassroots efforts are more important in low turnout elections than in high turnout elections. The people who are added to turnout by grassroots efforts fit the "motivated voter" definition. The 200-500 people (who otherwise wouldn't have voted) that Jeff Smith's coffees and other grassroots efforts motivate to vote are minor compared to the number of marginal nonvoters who are motivated to vote for or against constitutional amendments or for or against a high-profile gubernatorial candidate. The, say, 500 extra people that grassroots efforts get to the polls are more important in a 30,000-voter election than in a 50-100,000 voter turnout in the Democratic primary. (40,000 voted for Gephardt running unopposed in the last presidential year primary.) It's that extra several thousand voters that change a low turnout into a high turnout that comprise the "marginally inattentive" voting bloc that, sadly, will decide this election.
Posted by Tim Barnhart on Wed., Jul 28, 2004 at 12:01 AMOne interesting phenomena may be playing out. The mud is starting to fly over the past week in the 3rd CD and Gov. race. I expect the reaction to be a depressed turnout. Carnahan sent out an outrageous postcard that landed today filled with baseless accusations about Joan Barry and Jeff Smith as well. He also bragged about his voting record which is one of the worst in the legislature. I don't know if it is in the bottom 10%, 20% or even 30%. The bottom line is that it is pretty pathetic. He doesn't seem to understand why that reflects poorly on him. I guess that is what the privilege of the Carnahan name does to someone. It's kind of like W. in that way if you ask me.
In many ways Russ may be depressing the very high turnout that he needs. That may be good news for Stoll unless Russ's people begin to flock to Jeff in big enough numbers to put him over the top. I predict that it is going to be very close between those two.
Posted by Gene on Wed., Jul 28, 2004 at 1:01 AMI agree with Tim's remarks concerning the underinformed voters. Those of us who live and breathe politics every day somtimes forget to lift our heads and look around us at the overhwhelming number of voters who can't be bothered to examine issues and consider candidates' records. Russ Carnahan may be the dimmest star in the Carnahan galaxy but he still haa an irrefutable asset--name recognition. Don't count him out just because he has a lousy record.
Many, many times over the past several months I have asked colleagues what they think about the 3rd CD race. Their candidate evaluations frequently range from he/she "seems like a nice person" to "Why are the Democrats letting so many candidates run?" to "There are so many of them that I don't even know their names." They plan to vote, but a frightening number of them will make their last minute decisions based upon number of mailings they receive, name recognition, which candidate came to their door, or who is first on the ballot. Never discount their ability to influence an election in favor of someone like Russ Carnahan.
I, too, am involved in grassroots politics, and I respect all those who are, regardless of their political affilitation. We may not agree on candidates or issues, but at least we take our right to vote seriously. This is one time I really wish I could take a Democratic ballot!
Posted by Carol on Wed., Jul 28, 2004 at 11:07 AMMy prediction, based on the above thoughts, my own reading of the race over several months time, and Carnahan's polling data [including the rumor of a recent internal survey placing Jeff Smith and Joan Barry within striking distance (and explaining Carnahan's recent cash infusion and negative attacks)].
Democratic performance, by ballot order:
Jeff Smith - 21%
Steve Stoll - 20%
Mark Smith - 10%
Michael Bram - 0.3%
Mariano Favazza - 7%
Corey Mohn - 0.7%
Joan Barry - 17%
Russ Carnahan - 20%
Mike Evans - 0.0% (remains on ballot)
Jo Ann Karll - 4%
**Jeff Smith (1st) bests Steve Stoll (2nd) and Russ Carnahan (3rd) by the slimmest of margins.**
(Notably, however, both Russ and Jeff secure less of the vote than Carnahan's recent internal poll predicts).
On Tuesday, the Democratic vote of the 3rd Congressional District splits somewhat evenly between the city of St. Louis (38 percent), St. Louis County (30 percent), and exurbs of Jefferson County and Ste. Genevieve County (32 percent).
--City of St. Louis (38 percent of total vote)
Jeff Smith - 45%, 17%
Mark Smith - 16%, 6%
Michael Bram - 1%, 0.3%
Mariano Favazza - 16%, 6%
Corey Mohn - 2%, 0.7%
Russ Carnahan - 21%, 8%
(% of regional vote),(% of total vote)
-- St. Louis County (30 percent of total vote)
Jeff Smith - 10%, 3%
Steve Stoll - 3%, 1%
Mark Smith - 13%, 4%
Mariano Favazza - 3%, 1%
Joan Barry - 50%, 15%
Russ Carnahan - 20%, 6%
(% of regional vote),(% of total vote)
-- Exurbs of Jefferson County and Ste. Genevieve County (32 percent of total vote)
Jeff Smith - 3%, 1%
Steve Stoll - 59%, 19%
Joan Barry - 6%, 2%
Russ Carnahan - 19%, 6%
Jo Ann Karll - 13%, 4%
(% of regional vote),(% of total vote)
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