3rd District - What the numbers tell us

First, a look again at the numbers. How much did they raise this quarter? I don’t count loans. I want to know how much support they received.

This quarter:
Steve Stoll - $135k
Russ Carnahan - $125k
Jeff Smith - $109k
Joan Barry - $74k
Mark Smith - $33k

Now, great to raise money, but how much money do they have on-hand?
Russ Carnahan - $202k
Jeff Smith - $181k
Steve Stoll - $161k
Joan Barry - $131k
Mark Smith - $102k

But some of them have loaned their campaigns money. Is it window-dressing or will they really spend it? Let's subtract the debt and see how things shake-out:
Steve Stoll - $161k
Jeff Smith - $159k
Russ Carnahan - $152k
Mark Smith - $102k
Joan Barry - $81k

Obviously there are three viable candidates - Stoll, Carnahan and J. Smith. With both Barry and M. Smith on the bubble, what are the scenarios where they win this race? For Barry, in a field of mostly men, her gender may help her in the voting booth. Add to this her pro-life stance and her biography - nursing, state representative - and their campaign could run a disciplined and targeted campaign, hit their demographic and win enough in a crowded field to emerge the victor. It's a long shot, but greater miracles have occured. For M. Smith, the scenario is harder to imagine. While I find his messge - working class needs opportunities - appealing, it gets lost in the fray, and with less money, I'm not sure it has a chance to resonate with the voters.

Carnahan has his best quarter so far, but it doesn't distinguish him from either Stoll or J. Smith. Stoll is looking good with continued strong fundraising. And of course J. Smith is the major surprise of this race, coming from nowhere to be competitive.

But, questions are circulating about J Smith's filings. They look like what have been termed "rookie mistakes," technical rather than ethical errs. What happened to the loan he made to himself? Last quarter $22,000 showed up as a loan. This quarter no loan is recorded on the summary page. (I assumed it is still outstanding in the numbers above.) Where are expenditures for his office? He shows in-kind donations for the office furniture, but no accounting of rent or utilities.

Finally, the wildcard - Jo Ann Karll. No filing from her due to her late entry into the race. Will she make a credible run? If so, she draws votes away from Stoll's base of Jefferson County, and maybe from Barry's women votes.